NASCAR Shriners Children’s 500 Predictions, Odds & Race Preview — Phoenix Raceway

The NASCAR Cup Series heads to Phoenix Raceway, home of the Championship race, for the first time in 2025 this Sunday in the Shriners Children’s 500.

Christopher Bell has won two straight races and opened as the betting favorite for this event. But should be topping your betting picks on March 9? Here's our in-depth look at the 2025 Shriners Children’s 500.

Odds to win 2025 Shriners Children’s 500

Driver
William Byron	+650
Ryan Blaney	+650
Christopher Bell	+650
Kyle Larson	+700
Tyler Reddick	+750
Joey Logano	+750
Kyle Busch	+800
Chase Elliott	+1100
Denny Hamlin	+1500
Ross Chastain	+2000
Carson Hocevar	+2200
Chase Briscoe	+2500
Austin Cindric	+2500
Chris Buescher	+2800
Brad Kesolowski	+2800
Michael McDowell	+3500

Odds as of 3-9.

Shriners Children’s 500 field

There are 37 entrants for the Shriners Children’s 500, none more noteworthy than Katherine Legge. She is set to make her Cup Series debut in the No. 78 Live Fast Motorsports Chevrolet and become the first woman since Danica Patrick (2018 Daytona 500) to participate in a Cup Series race.

Legge, 44, has competed part-time in the IMSA SportsCar Championship, ARCA Menards Series, and the IndyCar series. 

She will not, however, be among the favorites at Phoenix. Christopher Bell, riding a two-race winning streak, opened as the favorite at +500. He won last year's Shriners Children’s 500 as well.

Joey Logano, who secured his third career championship over this course last fall, opened as the +850 fifth-choice behind Ryan Blaney (+600), Kyle Larson (+650), and William Byron (+800).

Shriners Children’s 500 expert picks and predictions

Odds listed below courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook as of 3-8.

Shriners Children’s 500 pre-qualifying favorites

Christopher Bell (+500)
Christopher Bell won the spring race last year and has six Top-10 finishes in his last eight Phoenix starts, including a fifth-place result last November. 

Kyle Larson (+650)
Phoenix didn’t used to be one of Kyle Larson’s better tracks. Now, it’s become one.

Larson has six Top-5 finishes in his last 10 starts there. The thing is, while having 10 Top-10 finishes in his last 12 Phoenix tries, Larson also has just one career win in 21 Phoenix starts in the Cup. He is 0-for-1 in Trucks and 0-for-5 in the Xfinity Series. 

William Byron (+800)
William Byron won the 2023 spring race with 64 laps led, with stage finishes of first and second, respectively. He was on the pole and finished fourth that fall after leading 95 of 312 laps.

Last spring, he qualified fifth, finished sixth and fourth in the two stages, but came home 18th. He qualified eighth, finished fourth in both stages and third in the race last fall. 

Byron has seven Top-10 finishes in his last 10 Phoenix tries.

Joey Logano (+850)
Joey Logano has been feast or famine at this track. He had 612 laps led and seven Top-10 finishes in an eight-race span at Phoenix coming into the 2023 season that included a pair of wins (Spring 2020, Fall 2022) and a runner-up (Spring 2021).

However, Logano failed to lead a lap in 2023, failed to score any stage points, and finished 11th and 18th, respectively. 

Last spring, he qualified 23rd and finished 34th without a lap led, too. He then went out and led 107 laps from the second starting position and won the race and the 2024 championship last November. 

Shriners Children’s 500 sleepers

Chase Briscoe (+1200)
He won the 2022 spring race after leading 101 laps. Chase Briscoe led 11 more laps that fall with stage finishes of third and fourth, respectively, and a finish of fourth. The last two springs, he came home seventh and ninth, respectively. That’s why the 24th-place run and 29th the last two Novembers doesn’t scare me off. Plus he has the old ride of Martin Truex Jr., who led 55 laps and finished seventh last spring. 

Ross Chastain (+1400)
Ross Chastain won the 2023 fall championship race after leading 157 laps and finishing third and second, respectively, in the pair of stages. He had stage points in both stages in the 2023 spring race but had a late race run-in with Denny Hamlin that relegated him to a 24th-place result. He finished sixth last spring and 19th in the fall. However, he qualified third for the fall race, so he had speed. In 2022, Chastain finished second and third, respectively. 

Chris Buescher (+2200)
Fords have been quick in Phoenix, and Chris Buescher won the second stage in the 2023 Fall race and finished fifth. He was runner-up last spring and ninth in the all race. 

Shriners Children’s 500 fades

Denny Hamlin (+1000) 
The Joe Gibbs Racing driver has 12 Top-10 finishes in his last 18 starts in the desert. However, with this Next Gen car, his best finish is eighth with 82 laps led. Two wins in 39 Phoenix starts makes me leery. 

Tyler Reddick (+1200)
Tyler Reddick has only had two Top-5 finishes in nine Phoenix tries. Both came in the last two spring races, with a third-place finish in each. He’s led four career laps led here, too. His last three fall finishes were 23rd, 22nd, and sixth. 

Shriners Children’s 500 prop pick: Ryan Blaney Top 3 finish

One of these years, Ryan Blaney (+600 win outright) is going to find victory lane in Phoenix. While he’s 0-for-18 in the NASCAR Cup Series on this track, he does have 12 Top-10 finishes in those 18 starts, including nine consecutively.

Furthermore, he’s finished runner-up in four of his last five Phoenix tries and fifth last spring. He was fourth in the two starts prior to that string. He’s led 334 laps in this span.

Pick: Ryan Blaney Top 3 finish (+160 at DraftKings)

Phoenix Raceway track analysis

Nothing has changed in regard to this track this year in comparison to the last time out. 

The Ford drivers led 89% of laps (558-for-624) in 2022, including 248 of the 312 in the spring race and 310 of the 312 in the fall. Hendrick Motorsports led 65 of the remaining 66 laps between the two races, with the only other driver to lead a lap in Phoenix last year being AJ Allmendinger (one lap, fall race).

For 2023, Chevrolet flipped the script.

They led 532 of the 629 combined laps in 2023 (84.5%), taking two of the Top 4 finishing positions in the spring race. Ford’s led 82 of the remaining 97 laps with Toyota taking the other 15, all in the fall race. 

Last spring, Toyota drivers led 298 of the 312 laps. Ford led the remaining 14. Among the 298, JGR led all but 68, with Reddick from 23XI Racing leading the rest.

In the championship race, Toyota drivers led 152 of 312 laps, Ford drivers led 120 laps, and Chevrolet the other 40 laps. Among the 624 laps at Phoenix last year, 450 (72.1%) were led by Toyota, 166 for Ford and 40 for Chevy. 

Shriners Children’s 500 trends

• Starting position matters so much in Phoenix. Thirteen of the last 15 Phoenix winners have come from a Top-10 starting spot. In 2023, the winners started third and eighth, respectively. Bell qualified 13th for this race last year and Logano second in the fall. 
• Ten of the last 12 Phoenix races saw the eventual race winner get a Top 5 in the opening stage, including the last six finishing second, first, first, third, no points, and first, respectively. Furthermore, 11 of the last 12 race winners had a Top-3 in Stage 2, including the last four winners finishing second in the second stage three times.
• There have been eight different winners at Phoenix in the last nine tries: Elliott, Truex Jr., Larson, Bowman, Logano (twice), Byron, Chastain, and Bell. 

Shriners Children’s 500 info

Previous Shriners Children’s 500 winners

Chevrolet has won four of the last 10 Phoenix spring races compared to three for Ford and three for Toyota, but have had only one win since 2017.

How to make Shriners Children’s 500 picks

NASCAR betting is a nuanced process that can take any number of factors into account, and spans several different types of bets. Fortunately, our How to Bet NASCAR guide walks you through the basics, including how to read odds, different markets that are available, and what to consider when making your bets. 

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