The NASCAR Cup Series season has entered the homestretch as the three-race Round of 8 begins this Sunday at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. A win here for any playoff driver — including favored Kyle Larson — would result in an automatic Championship 4 berth, so the stakes are high in the gambling capital of the country.
If you're looking to wager on this "Sin City" spectacle, you won't want to miss our free betting picks.
Odds to win 2024 South Point 400
| Driver |  |
 |
 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Larson | +250 | +260 | +350 |
| William Byron | +1,300 | +1,300 | +1,200 |
| Christopher Bell | +650 | +750 | +900 |
| Denny Hamlin | +700 | +650 | +700 |
| Tyler Reddick | +550 | +950 | +500 |
| Joey Logano | +1,800 | +1,500 | +1,400 |
| Ryan Blaney | +2,200 | +1,400 | +1,200 |
| Chase Elliott | +1,300 | +1,600 | +1,400 |
| Martin Truex Jr. | +900 | +1,000 | +800 |
| Kyle Busch | +1,800 | +2,000 | +2,200 |
| Ross Chastain | +1,500 | +1,400 | +1,400 |
| Ty Gibbs | +1,300 | +1,400 | +1,400 |
| Alex Bowman | +2,500 | +2,400 | +2,000 |
| Bubba Wallace | +4,500 | +3,100 | +3,500 |
| Brad Keselowski | +4,000 | +4,100 | +4,000 |
| Chris Buescher | +4,500 | +4,400 | +4,500 |
| Chase Briscoe | +11,000 | +10,000 | +10,000 |
| Daniel Suarez | +9,000 | +7,500 | +6,600 |
| Austin Cindric | +10,000 | +8,500 | +10,000 |
| Noah Gragson | +11,000 | +9,000 | +10,000 |
Odds as of 10-20.
South Point 400 field
Kyle Larson comes into this one as the obvious driver to beat with three wins and two runner-up results in seven races here with Hendrick Motorsports. However, there will be 36 other participants looking to take him down.
Of the seven other playoff drivers, Denny Hamlin boasts the second-best average rating behind Larson across the last seven races at Las Vegas. However, he is looking up at William Byron and Christopher Bell in the early South Point 400 wagering. Tyler Reddick rounds out the Top 5 in pre-qualifying betting.
South Point 400 expert picks and predictions
Odds listed below courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook as of 10-16.
South Point 400 pre-qualifying favorites
Kyle Larson (+300)
Kyle Larson finished runner-up (second in both stages, too) after leading 63 laps last spring and won this past spring for his fourth straight Top-2 finish in the spring race. In last year’s fall race, Larson swept both stages and led a race-high 133 of 267 laps in victory. At Kansas, a like track, he was second and fourth, respectively, last season and won the spring race this year.
William Byron (+750)
William Byron dominated last spring to the tune of sweeping both stages, leading 176 of 271 laps, and winning. Byron was 10th this spring.
He was seventh in the playoff race last year, netting him four Top-7 finishes in his last five Vegas starts. He was also third and 15th in the two Kansas races last season and finished runner-up this Fall.
Christopher Bell (+800)
Christopher Bell has four Top-10 finishes in his last six Vegas starts, including a fifth-place run in the 2023 spring race and a runner-up after leading 61 laps last fall. On a like track at Kansas, Bell also was fifth and third in 2022 and 36th and eighth last year. He finished seventh from the pole at Kansas in the last round.
South Point 400 sleepers
Kyle Busch (+1,400)
Kyle Busch has a pair of third-place finishes in his last four Las Vegas starts to go along with six Top-6 finishes in the last eight overall. At a like track in Kansas a season ago, Busch was also 35th and seventh, respectively. He had a potential victory taken away while leading late in the Kansas race this fall.
Ross Chastain (+1,600)
Too good to ignore at Vegas, especially after a Kansas win last month. Ross Chastain has four Top-5 finishes in his last five tries, including results of third and second in 2022 and fourth this spring. He led 151 laps on this track in 2022.
Alex Bowman (+2,800)
He’s finished in the Top-3 the last two spring races, including a 2022 win. At Kansas, Alex Bowman finished ninth, fourth, 10th, seventh and sixth in the last five races.
South Point 400 fades
Joey Logano (+1,000)
Joey Logano won the 2022 playoff race but that’s his only Top-5 finish in his last eight Vegas starts. He’s finished 14th, 36th, 12th, and ninth here in the Next Gen car.
Ryan Blaney (+1,100)
Ryan Blaney has 10 Top-7 finishes in his last 15 starts in Vegas. While he was sixth last fall and third this spring, his other three Next Gen finishes are 36th, 28th, and 13th. At Kansas, he finished 16th, 12th, 12th, and fourth in his last four starts.
Chase Elliott (+1,200)
Prior to a runner-up in the 2021 playoff race, Chase Elliott had just two career Top 5s on this track. He was 21st and 32nd a year ago without a lap led or stage point accumulated. Seven of his 14 Vegas finishes are 21st or worse. He was only 29th, 11th, seventh, sixth, third, and ninth at Kansas with the Next Gen car.
South Point 400 prop pick
While Denny Hamlin has just one win in 25 Las Vegas starts, he does have four Top-5 finishes in his last seven starts, including results of 11th and 10th a year ago. He’s led 375 of his 393 career Vegas laps in this span too. Also, he has finished fourth, second, first, second, and eighth in his five Kansas Speedway tries, the closest track comparison to Las Vegas, with the Next Gen car.
Pick: Denny Hamlin Top 3 Finish (+260 at Sportsbook)
Popular motor sports futures odds
Las Vegas Motor Speedway track analysis
Vegas has become a track that's produced a ton of lead changes lately. It has character with some bumps in the turns and has turned into a track that can reward pit strategy in the event you can take two tires later, or even gamble with fuel only.
It's no secret, when you come to the four annual stops between Las Vegas and Kansas, you have to go through Hendrick Motorsports and Toyotas in general if you want to win on these 1.5-mile tracks.
Toyota's led 397 of 802 laps in the last three Kansas spring races and 317 of 802 in the fall. Hendrick Motorsports led 164 of the same 534 laps in the pair of Kansas spring races and 292 of the 802 in the fall.
For Vegas, their records are just as good. In the last two spring races, Toyota led 123 of 541 laps while HMS led 292 laps themselves.
Last year, Toyota went 4-5-7-11 and led 16 of 271 laps, but HMS led 241 of 271 in going 1-2-3 for the race. Last fall, HMS led 134 of 267 laps while Toyota led 93 laps themselves.
Can Ford (40 laps led last fall) close the gap?
South Point 400 trends
- There’s only been two polesitters to ever win in Vegas history (32 races). They were Kyle Busch back in 2009 and Kyle Larson last fall.
- Of the last 27 Vegas races, 22 were won by a past champion.
- Penske, SHR, HMS, and JGR/Furniture Row have won the 17 of the last 18 Vegas races. Roush/Fenway Racing's Carl Edwards was the exception in 2011.
Not intended for use in MA.
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South Point 400 info
| Location: | Las Vegas Motor Speedway, Las Vegas, NV |
| Date: | Sunday, 10-20-2024 |
| Start time: | 2:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBC |
Previous South Point 400 winners
NASCAR has held a fall race at Las Vegas since 2018, and no clear pattern has emerged. There have been six unique winners in that span, and Chevrolet, Ford, and Toyota each boast two wins.
| Year | Winner |
| 2023 | Kyle Larson |
| 2022 | Joey Logano |
| 2021 | Denny Hamlin |
| 2020 | Kurt Busch |
| 2019 | Martin Truex Jr. |
| 2018 | Brad Keselowski |
How to make South Point 400 picks
NASCAR betting is a nuanced process that can take any number of factors into account, and spans several different types of bets. Fortunately, our How to Bet NASCAR guide walks you through the basics, including how to read odds, different markets that are available, and what to consider when making your bets.
