We're about to whittle down the NASCAR playoffs field to the Championship 4, and this weekend's race at Martinsville sets the stage for the season finale.
As many races have this season, the Xfinity 500 odds favor one Chase Elliott, who holds the most wins on the circuit this season and is primed to add another Cup Series title to his 2020 win.
Will he make up ground on leader Joey Logano this weekend?
Check out our best free Xfinity 500 picks and predictions for Sunday, October 30.
Xfinity 500 best bets
- Favorite: Chase Elliott (+650)
- Sleeper: Brad Keselowski (+3,000)
- Matchup: Keselowski (-105) over Reddick
Picks made on 10/25/22 at 11:05 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick above to jump to the full analysis.
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
Xfinity 500 favorites
Chase Elliott (+650)
Hendrick Motorsports has won three of the last four at Martinsville, and five of the last eight fall races there. Chase Elliott won the pole and dominated the first two stages back in the spring before a pit road penalty relegated him to a Top 10 instead of a Top 5.
Elliott won the 2020 Fall race en route to a Championship 4 appearance here. He also has four Top 5s in his last seven Martinsville starts, three of them being in the Top 2.
While he has just two Top 10s in his last eight races — including finishes of 32nd, first, 20th, 21st, and 14th, respectively, the last five weeks — he’s won in this stretch and trends have him winning again on Sunday.
Joey Logano (+900)
Penske had the two non-HMS spots in the Top-4 in the spring race. Joey Logano has pair of Top-5 finishes that came at Martinsville in 2020 and again this past spring (second) to go along with eight Top 10s in his last nine tries.
Martin Truex Jr. (+1,000)
He’s won three of the last six Martinsville races. The ones he didn’t win were the last two fall races, where he led 129 laps in 2020 and finished fourth last year. Truex has seven Top-5s in his last 10 tries on the Virginia paperclip, and is coming off of a race he had a chance to win last week.
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Xfinity 500 longshot picks
Brad Keselowski (+3,000)
Keselowski has 10 Top-5 finishes in his last 13 Martinsville starts. He also has four Top 3s in his last seven there, and is coming off of an impressive Top-5 finish last Sunday.
Kyle Busch (+1,500)
Busch has 13 Top-10 finishes in his last 14 at Martinsville, including a runner-up last Halloween. He also has two Top-5 finishes in the last three weeks.
AJ Allmendinger (+3,000)
He’s a very good driver on this track, finishing seventh in last year’s Xfinity Series race and third this past spring. On the season, Allmendinger also has six straight Top-10 finishes, including a pair of Top-5 results in the last three races.
Xfinity 500 fades
Denny Hamlin (+700)
Four of his last five Martinsville finishes have seen him come home 11th or worse (28th in the spring). While they tested there, and Hamlin has won here five times in general, do you trust those stats for the second-best odds?
William Byron (+800)
Byron picked up where Elliott left off in the spring. He finished second in both stages and led the final 212 laps for the win. Byron has five Top 8s in his last six Martinsville starts, including a runner-up in the playoff race in 2019, fourth and fifth, respectively, last year, and a win in the spring race.
However, these odds are a bit steep for a driver that has finishes of 12th, 16th, 13th, and 12th the last four weeks with just one Top-5 finish in the last 26 points-paying races.
Ryan Blaney (+800)
He’s a better fantasy play this weekend instead of an outright win bet. Maybe see if you can get him on a Top-5 finish bet. Yes, Blaney was fourth in the spring race while also coming home runner-up in both races in 2020. He was fourth and fifth, respectively, in 2019, part of six Top 5s in his last nine tries on the Virginia paperclip.
However, Blaney is winless this year. He was winless in all 10 playoff races last year. He has to win Sunday to stay alive. Do you really put all your eggs in this basket for these odds?
Xfinity 500 matchup pick
Tyler Reddick (-115) vs. Brad Keselowski (-105)
Reddick’s best Martinsville finish is eighth. His other four Cup finishes here are 16th, 24th, 18th, and 128th, respectively. Four of his last seven finishes on the season have been 28th or worse. Meanwhile, Keselowski has 11 Top-10 finishes in his last 13 Martinsville starts, with 10 of those 11 being in the Top 5.
His last six Fall finishes here? Second, fourth, fifth, third, fourth, and third, respectively. He’s coming off of a Top-5 result last weekend as well.
PICK: Keselowski (-105)
Xfinity 500 preview
The Round of 8 elimination race is here. The thing is, do you trust past history on this track, or recent trends? Racing is very much a momentum-based sport, but the drivers who have done well at Martinsville — not only in the past, but as recently as this past April — enter with no momentum.
Chase Elliott has four Top 5s in his last seven Martinsville starts, three of them being in the Top 2. He started on the pole in April and led every lap in the first two stages before a pit road penalty.
William Byron picked up where Elliott left off in the spring. He finished second in both stages and led the final 212 laps for the win. Overall, Byron has five Top 8’s in his last six Martinsville starts including a runner-up in the playoff race in 2019, fourth and fifth, respectively, last year, and a win in the spring race.
However, Elliott has just two Top 10s in his last eight races, including finishes of 32nd, first, 20th, 21st, and 14th the last five weeks. Byron has finishes of 12th, 16th, 13th, and 12th the last four weeks himself, with just one Top-5 finish in the last 26 points-paying races.
Can they just turn it on all of a sudden on Sunday?
Ryan Blaney was fourth in April and has six Top 5s in his last nine starts at Martinsville. However, he’s facing a must-win on a track he’s never won at, in a winless season (44-race drought), and has finished 16th or worse in four of his last six starts on the year.
Denny Hamlin has been his best at Martinsville in the distant past, but he’s finished 11th or worse in four of his last five there.
Xfinity 500 key stats
- JGR (Hamlin, KyBusch, Truex Jr., Bell), Penske (Blaney, Logano, Cindric), Hendrick Motorsports (Elliott, Byron, Larson, Bowman/Gragson) have won 15 of the last 16 Martinsville races, with three of the last four belonging to HMS.
- There have been eight straight different winners of this fall race (Earnhardt Jr., Gordon, Johnson, KyBusch, Logano, Truex, Elliott, Bowman).
- Four of the last six winners have come from a Top-5 starting spot.
Xfinity 500 live betting trends to watch
- The eventual race winner has had a Top-5 finish in the first stage every year, minus last fall.
- William Byron finished second in both stages this past spring.
- If you want to win, you better find yourself in the Top 2 or 3 by the end of the second stage. Since we began stage racing in 2017, the eventual winner has finished either first (four times), second (three times), or third (twice) in nine of the 11 second stages.
- Starting spots on short tracks this year for the eventual race winners: sixth (Phoenix), 13th for both Richmond races, fifth (Martinsville spring), fourth (Dover), fifth (Loudon), and 20th (Bristol).
- In three of the seven short track races run this season, the driver to lead the most laps won the race in the end.
- In four of the seven races, those laps all occurred in the final stage. In fact, Chris Buescher at Bristol is the only winner to have led more than 19 laps in the first stage. The race winner is better to be found in Stage 2.
- Eight of the 11 races in the stage era here saw the driver who lead the most laps win the race in the end.
