76ers vs Bucks Picks and Predictions: Greek Freak Mans the Boards

Sunday features a can’t-miss clash of the titans between the Philadelphia 76ers and Milwaukee Bucks. Not only are these two teams among the NBA’s best, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Joel Embiid are two of the three players with a realistic chance to win the ever-coveted MVP trophy this season.

A showcase game by either one at the expense of the other could make or break what has become the most hotly-contested MVP race in NBA history.

Our NBA picks and predictions for 76ers vs. Bucks believe that despite a few poor outings on the glass recently, Giannis is due for a dominant rebounding performance against Philadelphia.

76ers vs Bucks best odds

76ers vs Bucks picks and predictions

Sunday's game between the Philadelphia 76ers and Milwaukee Bucks should be a genuine treat. While we were denied the MVP showdown between Joel Embiid and Nikola Jokic, the stage is set for a faceoff between Giannis Antetokounmpo and Embiid.

Giannis, a two-time MVP in his own right, has somehow become an afterthought in the race between Jokic and Embiid, but with the race tighter than at any point in recorded history a big performance by the Greek Freak could see him snatch his third MVP trophy.

While both Giannis and Embiid are dominant scorers, their rebounding is just as critical to their team's success. And it’s with Antetokounmpo’s rebounding total that we look to for the best value in Sunday’s matchup. 

Giannis’ defensive rebounding places him in the 95th percentile among all big men, per Cleaning the Glass, and he’s averaging a sterling 11.8 rebounds per game on the season. But Antetokounmpo’s recent rebounding totals have not been terribly inspiring, at least not by his lofty standards. 

While he’s averaging 10.6 rebounds per game over his last five, in three of those games he grabbed fewer than 10. That’s why his rebound prop for Sunday is 11.5 when this line frequently passes the 12.5 threshold, and why there’s value in betting on him at this number.

I’m not worried about Giannis' ability... the most important thing is the context of this matchup against Philadelphia, as well as the health and performance of Brook Lopez.

Lopez is a frontrunner for Defensive Player of the Year, but it’s not for his lofty rebounding numbers. What Lopez does at an elite level is box out his man, and his man in this case is Joel Embiid. 

Lopez is one of the few players capable of hanging with Embiid in the post 1-on-1, both crafty and strong enough to seal him away from careening boards. Lopez doesn’t usually grab the board himself, leaving Giannis in position to beat Philadelphia’s forwards to the ball. 

While Giannis is a power forward who can comfortably play center, the forward line for Philadelphia is lilliputians by comparison. Tobias Harris, PJ Tucker, and Montrezl Harrell are simply not beating Antetokounmpo to a rebound with Embiid taken out of the play.

It’s a formula that has worked for the Bucks ever since they signed Lopez in the 2018-19 season. In the 12 games Milwaukee has played against Philadelphia since Lopez and Giannis teamed up, Giannis is averaging 14.9 rebounds per game and has only had 11 or fewer boards once — and that was a game that Lopez did not play.

My best bet: Giannis Antetokounmpo Over 11.5 rebounds (-115)

76ers vs Bucks spread analysis

Despite getting blown off their home court by the Celtics on Thursday, the Bucks are between -4.5 and -5-point favorites for Sunday’s game. But far from a complete outlier, the Bucks’ boondoggle against Boston follows a series of weak performances against other contending teams. 

Milwaukee is a freezing-cold 1-8 against the spread in their last nine games against teams with a winning percentage above .600. They’re also just 1-5 ATS in their last six games at home. Their -4.5 spread differential over the last two weeks is also the sixth-worst mark in the Association, per Cleaning the Glass.

The 76ers have a much better recent track record by comparison. They’re 8-3 ATS in their last 11 overall, as well as 6-2 in their last eight games on the road. They’ve slipped a little in overall effectiveness but that’s largely been due to Embiid and Harden both missing some time. They should have a full squad against Milwaukee.

That might not be the case for the Bucks. Khris Middleton was forced to leave the game with a face injury against Boston. The Bucks have been treating Middleton with kids' gloves this season to make sure he’s up to full strength by playoff time, so it's quite possible he does not feature majorly (or at all) in today’s game. 

76ers vs Bucks Over/Under analysis

Milwaukee heads into Sunday’s game with the second-best ranked defensive rating in the NBA at 111.1, just a hair behind the Grizzlies.

That’s particularly impressive given the experimentation and scheme tinkering the Bucks have been doing throughout the season. Mike Budenholzer is perhaps the exemplar of the coach who would happily allow an opposing team every open 3-pointer they like if it means walling off the paint. 

However, Milwaukee has managed to split the difference this season by trusting Lopez and Giannis to succeed in the paint without reflexively sending help. That’s seen them deny the easiest 3-point opportunities that their opponents used to thrive on.

It’s their offensive improvement more recently that has been relevant to bettors however, with Jrue Holiday, Middleton, and Joe Ingles all looking increasingly in rhythm as shooters and creators. That’s seen the Over go 4-1 in their last five games.

They’re also much better at shooting at home than on the road, so despite their outstanding defense, they tend to push the Over against elite competition like Philadelphia. The Over has cashed in seven straight Bucks games when they play teams with a road winning percentage north of .600.

The 76ers have seen a similar pattern of Overs against fellow contenders. The Over is 7-3 in their last 10 games against teams with a winning percentage above .600.

76ers vs Bucks betting trend to know

The Bucks are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. Find more NBA betting trends for 76ers vs. Bucks.

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