76ers vs Celtics Picks and Predictions: Embiid & Co. Feast With Williams Sidelined

After a long and sometimes tumultuous offseason, we finally have real, honest-to-goodness NBA basketball back in our lives tonight. How better to kick off the new season than with two longtime rivals, the Philadelphia 76ers and the Boston Celtics, both of whom figure to be in contention for the best record in the Eastern Conference?

The 76ers made major roster additions around the starring trio of Joel Embiid, James Harden, and rising guard Tyrese Maxey, and have the look of a regular-season juggernaut about them. The Celtics, meanwhile, are coming off a run to the NBA Finals and largely kept the band together this offseason but are hurt by a yearlong misconduct suspension for head coach Ime Udoka and knee surgery for Robert Williams III.

Our NBA picks and predictions for 76ers vs. Celtics think Philadelphia will take advantage of Boston’s hole in the frontcourt and win the inaugural game of the 2022-23 NBA season.

76ers vs Celtics best odds

76ers vs Celtics picks and predictions

While Ime Udoka’s suspension captured NBA headlines for nearly a month this summer, it is Robert Williams’ loss that figures to loom largest in this matchup against the 76ers. The Celtics started out last season as a .500 squad through 30 or so games and it wasn’t until they moved Williams into a kind of roaming free safety role on defense that they transformed into one of the NBA’s elite. 

The Celtics became the league's best defense last season by allowing the second-fewest shots at the rim of any team in the NBA while also forcing the most long twos per Cleaning the Glass. While their defense should still be solid in Williams' absence, those floaters and mid-range shots become a lot more comfortable for an opposing offense without the threat of Williams looming in the background.

Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown are both tough covers and should still be improving. The Celtics' physicality on the wing presents real problems for a Sixers team that relies on numerous small guards, but Philadelphia provides a similar challenge to Boston’s backline defenders.

That challenge takes the place of one Joel Embiid. The number of people in the world who can hang with Joel one-on-one can be counted on one hand, and his improvement as a passer has made the prospect of doubling him in the post much less palatable than it once was. While Blake Griffin provides much-needed depth to a shaky Celtics frontcourt rotation, he also immediately becomes a weaker link than any in Boston's defense a season ago. With Williams and Luke Kornet out, it’s hard to see how they’ll find the minutes to even pretend to guard Embiid.

James Harden may not quite have his fastball anymore, but don’t underestimate the value of his playmaking. The Embiid and Harden pick-and-roll was one of the league's most unstoppable plays last year and should have been honed to a fine edge with a full offseason and a training camp together. Maxey has looked the part of an All-Star in the preseason and has matched ludicrous efficiency with high-level production through his trademark combination of slashing and shooting.

Boston is obviously no slouch, but its Finals run, as impressive as it was, was far from dominant. Yes, the Celts swept the Brooklyn Nets, but all four games were close. They then squeaked out a win against a wounded Milwaukee Bucks and were a Jimmy Butler jump shot away from flaming out in the Conference Finals in spectacular fashion.

I’m bullish on this Sixers squad and I have serious reservations about the Celtics without Williams. At plus money, I like the moneyline.

My best bet: 76ers Moneyline (+120 at Betway)

76ers vs Celtics spread analysis

This line has been open since late August, so there has been significant movement in that time from Celtics -5.5 to just -2.5 at the time of writing. That drastic shift followed the twin losses of both Williams and head coach Udoka. 

The coaching uncertainty is not something I feel can be accounted for on the line of an individual game, so this is all about considering Williams’ impact. And it can’t be overstated how important he was to this Boston team. While Marcus Smart won Defensive Player of the Year, the Finals made it clear that the Time Lord was the Celtics' true defensive MVP. In a series where the Celtics were -120 overall, Williams was +30 in his minutes.

Williams' absence means more minutes for Al Horford. Horford has longtime been a better matchup against Embiid than he has any right to be, but the Celtics are in dire straits for this particular battle. Horford turned back the clock last year and blew away all reasonable expectations, but the circumstances are quite different this season. Last year, he took a functional sabbatical with the Oklahoma City Thunder. This season, he’s 36 and coming off a deep and grueling playoff run.

While Boston has gotten the better of this matchup in recent years, the Sixers have generally outperformed sportsbooks' expectations. The 76ers are 7-1 against the spread in the last eight meetings between the two teams. It would have been nice to get this line earlier, but I still like the Sixers to cover at +2.5.

76ers vs Celtics Over/Under analysis

Like the big shifts with the spread, this total has seen a steady rise from its opening at 213.5 all the way to 216.5 at some books. Given that Williams' value largely comes on the defensive end, that makes sense.

Early on in a season, defense is traditionally ahead of offense, and totals will rise as the year goes on. But there’s reason to think these particular teams might figure out the scoring side of the ball faster than average. The biggest one, of course, is continuity. The Celtics are functionally bringing the whole squad back while adding Malcolm Brogdon to the mix. Brogdon gives them another pick-and-roll ball-handler and off-ball shooter, buoying them against the occasional calamitous Marcus Smart shooting performance.

The 76ers have a lot of new players, but there’s still a surprising amount of continuity to be found there as well. Two of the new additions — P.J. Tucker and Danuel House — are Harden’s former teammates.

Both teams should have success scoring against their respective matchups. Boston has the advantage on the wing, while Philly should be able to build an effective attack from the inside out. Even accounting for rust, I’d expect this to be a high-scoring game.

76ers vs Celtics betting trend to know

The 76ers are 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings. Find more NBA betting trends for 76ers vs. Celtics.

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