At least the Philadelphia 76ers are giving those of us whose job it is to write about NBA odds daily a break, as Joel Embiid has been ruled out well in advance of tonight's matchup with the Utah Jazz.
This will be the 13th game Embiid has missed this season, and with each game missed not only do the losses pile up for Philly, but he also drops further down the NBA MVP odds board. Meanwhile, Utah will be happy to return home where it has a much better record following a tough road trip and will be moderate home chalk against the Embiid-less Sixers.
Does Philadelphia hold value as the underdog, or will Utah play some sweet music in Salt Lake City? I break down this matchup and bring you the best bet in my free NBA picks for the 76ers vs. Jazz on February 1.
76ers vs Jazz odds
76ers vs Jazz predictions
The Joel Embiid injury saga is getting a little messy and the Philadelphia 76ers have now been fined $75k for leaving him off the injury report ahead of last Saturday’s game against the Denver Nuggets. Embiid then tried to give it a go against the Golden State Warriors on Tuesday before having to leave midway through the game.
Embiid has already missed 12 games this season and Philadelphia is just 3-9 straight up in those games while going 5-7 against the spread. The Sixers were underdogs in nine of them.
Aside from scoring, the other place Philly is going to struggle in this matchup is on the glass. The Sixers have one of the best rebounders in the Association in Embiid, and they're still a well-below-average rebounding team. Philadelphia ranks 20th in rebounding rate, and in January it surrendered the second most opponent rebounds per game.
The Utah Jazz, on the other hand, are one of the best rebounding teams in the NBA. Thanks to a roster featuring Lauri Markkanen, John Collins and Walker Kessler among others, Utah ranks second in the Association when it comes to rebounding rate. And I want to focus on Kessler.
The Utah big man got moved to the bench early in the season, but the move has worked out for the Jazz. With Kessler and Jordan Clarkson coming off the bench, Utah has one of the best second units going these days. And before a road trip where they went 2-4 SU, this depth helped the Jazz go a 12-2 run in the middle of December and into January.
Kessler averages 7.4 rebounds per game for the season, but the drop-off hasn’t been much since coming off the bench. The second-year man out of Auburn is still averaging 7.0 boards as a reserve.
Kessler’s rebounding prop for tonight’s matchup is set at 5.5. But the Over is juiced to the -135 range. I’d much rather take the Over on his alt rebounds 6.5 at +125. He’s hauled down seven or more boards four times in his last seven games. I’m backing Kessler to hit lucky No. 7 again tonight.
My best bet: Walker Kessler Over 6.5 alt rebounds (+125 at DraftKings)
76ers vs Jazz same-game parlay
Walker Kessler Over 6.5 rebounds
Jazz -4.5
Jazz team total Over 121.5
As noted, Philly is just 3-9 SU without Embiid this season. But the fact Tyrese Maxey has also missed the last three games has compounded these issues for the 76ers.
With no Maxey and Embiid, the Sixers are 0-3 SU/ATS over that stretch, with a -14.7 point differential. And one of those games was against the Portland Trail Blazers. In fact, they allowed the Blazers, who have arguably the worst offense in the NBA, to put up 130 points.
Meanwhile, the Jazz are 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games at home. They have also topped 123 points in 10 of their last 12 games overall. Let’s round this SGP out with Utah -4.5 and go Over its team total of 121.5.
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76ers vs Jazz spread and Over/Under analysis
With Joel Embiid ruled out, the Jazz opened this matchup as 5-point home favorites, and the line has hopped back and forth between that and 4.5 leading up to tipoff.
The Sixers are just 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall, and they looked like they flat-out didn’t care in their loss to the Trail Blazers. On top of that, with all of the injuries Philly is dealing with, Utah will have a big edge when it comes to depth. Now, it’s the Sixers' turn to end a long road trip.
When it comes to the total, that hit the board at 235.5 and the Over has been hammered, moving the number up to 238.5 as of Thursday afternoon.
While I like the Jazz to eclipse their team total in this one, I would be wary of the full game total at this new number, especially if Maxey doesn’t play. Philly has scored 107 points or fewer in four of its last six games. So, Utah would have to do the heavy lifting here.
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76ers vs Jazz betting trend to know
The Jazz are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games at home. Find more NBA betting trends for 76ers vs. Jazz.
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76ers vs Jazz game info
| Location: | Delta Center, Salt Lake City, UT |
| Date: | Thursday, February 1, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TNT |
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