The ghosts of Doc Rivers’ past are haunting the halls of Scotiabank Arena, where his Philadelphia 76ers face the Toronto Raptors in Game 6 of their opening round NBA playoff series Thursday.
The 76ers have let a 3-0 series advantage dissolve with back-to-back losses to Toronto, recalling the three times Rivers has let his teams waste a 3-1 series stranglehold. Those evil spirits are having their way with the odds for Game 6, with the Raps as short as 1.5-point underdogs after getting as many as 8.5 points at Philadelphia in Game 5.
Check out our free NBA betting picks and predictions for 76ers at Raptors on April 28.
76ers vs Raptors odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
Toronto opened as a 1.5-point home pup and jumped between +1 and +2 depending on the book. The status of All-Star guard Fred VanVleet doesn’t look good, with the team listing him as doubtful after sitting out the Game 5 win. The total for Thursday opened at 209.5 points and outside of some movement with the vig, that number is staying put as of Wednesday afternoon.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
76ers vs Raptors predictions
Predictions made on 4/27/2022 at 3:30 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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76ers vs Raptors game info
• Location: Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON
• Date: Thursday, April 28, 2022
• Tip-off: 7:00 p.m. ET
• TV: NBCS-Philadelphia, TSN4
76ers vs Raptors series odds
76ers: -800.
Raptors: +550.
76ers vs Raptors betting preview
Key injuries
76ers: Matisse Thybulle F (Out), Charles Bassey C (Questionable).
Raptors: Fred VanVleet G (Doubtful).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Toronto is 15-5 ATS in its last 20 home games versus Philadelphia. Find more NBA betting trends for 76ers vs. Raptors.
76ers vs Raptors picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Spread analysis
Holy hell, things in Philadelphia spoiled quicker than leaving the milk out in the middle of August. On top of all the mud being flung at Rivers for his past collapses, the Philly media is going for the throat with talking heads even claiming a tank job from James Harden in order to show Rivers the door.
But let’s all take a breath and relax for a second. Heading into the series, most folks were calling for a Raptors upset after Toronto had its way with the Sixers during the regular season. And given how tight the series odds were to tip off, it shouldn’t be too surprising we’re heading into Game 6.
Sure, we took a different route than expected to get to six games, choosing the off-ramp to crazy town. Rather than a back-and-forth battle, we saw a massive anomaly self correct over the course of a week and now bettors are baffled by the swing in odds between Game 5 and 6.
In true Dr. Strange fashion, the NBA multiverse could have played out very differently in this series, but we’d always end up at this absolute point: A tight spread for Game 6 in Toronto. Yeesh, imagine the horror of living in a reality where the 76ers swept the Raptors in four straight games… ewww.
This current line has a couple of things baked into it: 1. Momentum and media hoopla. 2. No Matisse Thybulle. And 3. No Fred VanVleet.
But as Toronto showed in the past two games, it doesn’t need the All-Star guard to win and did just fine cracking Philly's defense with its top defender on the floor. VanVleet certainly helps, especially from the 3-point arc, but the Raps have plugged that gap in the rotation with their abundance of long, athletic tweeners who are giving the Sixers fits on both ends of the floor.
It’s a constant stream of lanky 6-foot-7 guys with quick feet who thrive on energy, and they’re simply beating Philadelphia to the punch in every aspect. The Raps held Philly to 38% shooting on its own floor in Game 5 while scoring at a 51% clip, won the rebound war, blocked six shots, and forced 15 turnovers. Those errors translated into 20 easy points for a Toronto offense that shouldn’t be outperforming the 76ers’ star-studded lineup.
The one guy that could put an end to all of this is Harden — the ultimate X-factor in this series. The 76ers attack was fast and furious behind the beard’s peppy efforts in the opening two games, with Harden making shots and creating scoring chances. Since Game 4, however, Harden looks gassed and bothered by the bigger checks Toronto keeps throwing at him, posting as many made shots (9-for-28) as he has turnovers in that span.
Now that the universe has corrected itself, we’re letting go of those first three losses and leaning into a team doing all it can to win games playing at home with a handful of points to boot.
Prediction: Raptors +2 (-115 at PointsBet)
Over/Under analysis
The Raptors' long defenders have been plaguing the Sixers offense the past three games, checking Philly to just 43.8% shooting from the field. That size and versatility also allows Toronto to close the space on the perimeter quickly, which has left Philadelphia to fire up a 33% success rate from beyond the arc in the previous two outings.
Part of the problem for the 76ers is that Toronto is scoring at will inside and forcing the offense to start stale from the inbound on the bulk of possessions. The Raptors scored 42 points in the paint in Game 4 and 56 from the key in Game 5, which really makes it hard to spark any energy and beat the defense down the floor.
As for the Raps, VanVleet’s absence takes away the team’s one true long-range threat and that showed in the past two contests. Toronto is just 16-for-65 from distance in that span (24%), taking away one of the franchise’s favorite scoring methods: Transition 3-pointers.
It may seem obvious but the 76ers should take a step off the 3-point line, pack the inside, cheat on weak side help, and put a padlock on the paint — begging the Raps to beat them from beyond the arc. If anything, you force misses and generate long rebounds, which can quickly go the other way for transition buckets before Toronto’s defensive pillars set up.
Much like the spread for Game 6, Thursday’s total has come a long way since its predecessors after the past four contests all finished Under the number. The 209.5-point total is the fourth-lowest O/U of the playoffs so far (Dallas-Utah has the three lowest) and feels spot on.
I’ll lean Under given the stakes on both sides and some shops moving down to 209 a day out from tipoff.
Prediction: Under 209.5 (-110 at PointsBet)
Best bet
When your opponent shoots 51% from the floor and most of those shots come within eight feet of the bucket, there are not a lot of rebounding chances to go around. That was the case in Game 5, with Philadelphia pulling down only 29 total defensive boards.
Joel Embiid was responsible for 10 of those rebounds and tacked on a bonus board on the offensive end to finish with 11 for the night. That effort followed an eight-rebound outing in Game 4 — Embiid’s worst game on the glass since March 18 — and just the fourth time he’s failed to collect double figures in that stat column over the past 24 contests.
Keeping the lanky Raptors out of the paint means parking Embiid in the interior and crossing your fingers Toronto continues to brick it from long range. That should have the Sixers' big man in prime position to wrangle those wayward shots.
On the other end, Embiid needs to shoulder the scoring load if Harden isn’t going to show up. There’s no one on this Toronto team that can stop him, as proven in his first few outings before knee and thumb ailments flared up and dampened his performance. He’ll be challenged every time he goes to the hoop, so expect Embiid to brawl for the ball off short misses and score plenty of putback points on offensive rebounds.
Pick: Joel Embiid Over 11.5 rebounds (-130 at Caesars Sportsbook)
