76ers vs Timberwolves Picks and Predictions: Gobert Goes Off Again

Joel Embiid and the Philadelphia 76ers close out their five-game road trip when they visit Anthony Edwards and the Minnesota Timberwolves on Tuesday night.

The 76ers come in playing some of their best basketball of the season, winning eight of their last 11 games. But will the Sixers have any gas left in the tank after winning a 147-143 shootout with the Indiana Pacers just last night?

Meanwhile, the Timberwolves return from a road trip of their own, where they won the final three games. Will the rested T-Wolves be able to take advantage as short home chalk? I break down this matchup and bring you my best bet in my NBA picks and predictions for 76ers vs. Timberwolves on March 7.

76ers vs Timberwolves best odds

76ers vs Timberwolves picks and predictions

This would be a more interesting matchup if all things were equal. But that’s just not the case in the NBA sometimes and this game is a great example of that.

The 76ers are closing out a five-game road trip by playing the second half of a back-to-back where several of their key pieces are questionable to play. While the Timberwolves have been off since Saturday night, following a four-game road trip of their own.

Both teams are playing good basketball at the moment. The Sixers have won eight of 11 while the Wolves have won three in a row. But the more rested team will have a few edges. One in the form of Rudy Gobert.

It appears that the T-Wolves big man is very happy to have Mike Conley as his point guard once again. Gobert was averaging 13.2 points and 11.4 rebounds per game prior to the trade deadline. But since Minnesota acquired Gobert’s Utah running mate he’s gone for 16.3 points and 12.6 rebounds per contest. And I think he should have another solid night against a winded Sixers team.

Philly outlasted the Pacers last night, but it will be interesting to see what condition they are in tonight. And even though Joel Embiid is a presence on the inside, Gobert has battled him well in the past, averaging 14.4 points and 12.8 boards in eight career matchups.

Oddsmakers still haven’t made the adjustment to this increase in Gobert’s production with Conley running the Wolves offense. His points and rebounds prop is once again on the board at 24.5, a number Gobert has gone Over in five of his last six games. And not just by a little. He’s hit at least the 27 mark in those five games. 

I’m betting Gobert takes advantage of a gassed Sixers team that is just looking to get back to Philly after tonight.

My best bet: Rudy Gobert Over 24.5 points + rebounds (-115)

76ers vs Timberwolves spread analysis

Like I said, this game might be a little more interesting if they came into it on more of a level playing field, but it’s just hard to say what we’re going to see out of the 76ers tonight.

Starters PJ Tucker and Tobias Harris were already questionable after not playing last night, and now James Harden joins the questionable mix. And when a star player joins the injured report in a situation like this, that usually means the dreaded “load management.”

And while he is questionable, oddsmakers are leaning towards Harden not playing in this one, with the Timberwolves opening as 1.5-point home favorites and then moving to Minnesota -2.5 as of Tuesday afternoon. 

On top of the back-to-back, there's also the fact that, despite the successful road trip, the Sixers defense could certainly have played a little better. They have a defensive rating of 127.4 over the last four games and now must face a T-Wolves team that is starting to click.

Minnesota is putting up 118.7 points per game, while ranking fifth in 3-point shooting percentage and sixth in effective field goal percentage during this three-game winning streak.

I just don’t like this spot for the Sixers. Coming off a hard-fought win, trying to close out a road trip, on a back-to-back, against a well-rested team. I’d lean toward the quietly improving Wolves. 

76ers vs Timberwolves Over/Under analysis

The total hasn’t seen as much action. It hit the board at 229 and is down a half point to sit at 228.5 as of Tuesday afternoon. Both the 76ers and Timberwolves are coming off high-scoring games, and I wouldn’t be shocked if it happened again.

The Sixers lead the NBA in scoring over the last four games, putting up a whopping 131.3 points per contest while having the third-best field goal percentage and second-best 3-point shooting percentage. Even if Harden doesn’t play, this team has the depth to help mitigate that loss. And we already looked at their defensive lapses on this road trip, helping the Over cash in three straight games.

The last time the Timberwolves played an offense this good... was the last time they played. Outlasting the Sacramento Kings 138-134. The Over has also cashed in the Wolves' last four games vs. a team with a winning straight-up record. 

76ers vs Timberwolves betting trend to know

The Timberwolves are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games vs. a team with a winning straight-up record. Find more NBA betting trends for 76ers vs. Timberwolves.

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