How depleted are the Philadelphia 76ers? Some sportsbooks are offering prop bets on only three or four of their players as of Tuesday midday, reflecting the complete uncertainty of who Philadelphia will rely on now that even Tyrese Maxey is likely sidelined.
Any faith in the Minnesota Timberwolves, though, is tempered by their habit of not taking shorthanded opponents seriously.
My 76ers vs. Timberwolves predictions see a way to profit from that Minnesota habit while still not risking much faith in Philadelphia. Read more in my NBA picks for Tuesday, March 4.
76ers vs Timberwolves prediction
My best bet
First quarter Over 57.0 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
In the last month of games, reaching back to Jan. 28 to compensate for the week lost to the All-Star Break, nobody had a worse first-quarter defensive rating than the Minnesota Timberwolves. The only team within five points of how bad the Timberwolves have been in that opening frame? The Philadelphia 76ers.
Minnesota’s sluggish defensive starts stand out more given its overall defensive quality. Despite ranking No. 30 in first-quarter defensive rating at 130.3, the Timberwolves sit No. 10 in overall defensive rating since Jan. 28 at 112.5. But even Philadelphia’s early struggles stand out, given its overall defensive rating of 119.1 is leaps and bounds better than the first quarter number of 128.9.
There may be some sample size worries when focusing on only one quarter, but playing 16 games in this stretch softens those counterarguments. These are simply two teams that struggle to focus early in a game, with starting lineups not engaged defensively after the opening tip.
Minnesota’s struggles may have been partly attributable to the absences of Donte DiVincenzo and Julius Randle, each sidelined through this stretch, returning only within the last week. Then again, each played his normal role on Sunday in Phoenix, and the Timberwolves trailed by six after a high-scoring first quarter.
That first quarter reached 62 points, 26.5% of the pregame total. Let’s keep that metric in mind while looking at a particular Minnesota weakness: shorthanded or outright bad opponents.
In this stretch, the Timberwolves have been favored by three buckets on three different occasions. They lost two of those games outright. All three games were within a bucket at halftime.
The two most recent of those games featured first quarters of 60+ points, tallying 27.4% and 30.5% of their pregame totals.
Those were against better, though not good, first-quarter defenses. Facing the 76ers should turn tonight’s first 12 minutes into a track meet. The Timberwolves rarely start disciplined, and that bad habit finds an emphasis early against inferior opponents.
76ers vs Timberwolves same-game parlay
First quarter Over 57.0
76ers 1H +8.5
Anthony Edwards Under 28.5 points
Betting the 76ers to keep this game within eight in the first half should not require much further explanation. The Timberwolves fail to establish themselves against inferior opponents. Their focus lags. The likely absence of Tyrese Maxey created a renewed reason for that failure today.
Minnesota trailed by one against Milwaukee without Damian Lillard and Giannis Antetokounmpo. It led by just two against the Bulls. It was tied at halftime against the Wizards. This is a proven mistake.
The blame for that mistake extends well beyond Anthony Edwards, but he has pretty openly admitted he does not get up for these games as much as he should. Against the Bucks, for example, he scored just 28 points.
However, the onus of doubting him tonight is a nod toward DiVincenzo, Randle, and Minnesota’s trio of rookies. Head coach Chris Finch should be able to find reliable effort out of them in this lackluster matchup, and that could cut into Edwards’s playing time by a touch.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Cash your ML bets quicker with bet365's early win payout
Take advantage of the early win payout at bet365, where any pre-game NBA moneyline bet gets paid out as a winner if your team goes up by 20+ points!
Learn more about this feature, and all of bet365's offerings, with our comprehensive bet365 review.
21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Who will win 76ers vs Timberwolves?
Timberwolves 114, 76ers 105
A laughable first quarter often leads to Minnesota’s defense actually engaging, which should doom this game to a slower second half.
76ers vs Timberwolves odds
76ers vs Timberwolves live odds
76ers vs Timberwolves opening odds
- Spread: Philadelphia +12.0 | Minnesota -12.0
- Moneyline: Philadelphia +475 | Minnesota -650
- Over/Under: Over 221.5 | Under 221.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
76ers vs Timberwolves spread and Over/Under analysis
- Minnesota opened as a 12-point favorite on Monday night, climbing to -12.5 before the end of the night and to -13.5 by sunrise. Early Tuesday pushed this spread to -14, with some books dabbling at -14.5.
- The total opened at 221.5 and spiked overnight to 223, then steadily falling on Tuesday back to 221.5.
- Both those moves — the spread climbing and the total falling — can be somewhat tied to Tyrese Maxey’s back injury that likely will sideline him tonight.
76ers vs Timberwolves trend
Philadelphia has lost 12 of its last 14 games outright. Find more NBA betting trends for 76ers vs. Timberwolves.
How to watch 76ers vs Timberwolves
| Location | Target Center, Minneapolis, MN |
| Date | Tuesday, 3-4-2025 |
| Tip-off | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | FanDuel Sports Network - North, NBCSP+ |
76ers vs Timberwolves latest injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
