Covers NBA Staff Picks, Best Bets and Bold Predictions for 2024

The NBA season tips off tonight, and we're priming you for another nine months of hardwood action with NBA picks from the Covers staff!

Read on to see our favorite NBA futures plays, best bets, and bold predictions — ranging from the Celtics repeating to the Hornets playing in the postseason.

NBA Championship winner

Writer	NBA Championship winner
Andrew      Caley	Oklahoma City Thunder (+700 )
Jon      Metler	Oklahoma City Thunder (+700 )
Rohit      Ponnaiya	New York Knicks (+800 )
Douglas      Farmer	Minnesota Timberwolves (+1200 )
Ryan      Murphy	Boston Celtics (+325 )

Andrew Caley, Senior Betting Analyst: The Oklahoma City Thunder do everything well. They finished last season third in offensive rating and fourth in defensive rating. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is MVP-level and the roster is even better after bringing in Alex Caruso and Isaiah Hartenstein. The Thunder had their playoff growing pains last year, and now they’re ready to roll the NBA. 

Jon Metler, Analyst: After adding Caruso and Hartenstein in the offseason, the Oklahoma City Thunder now have the deepest and most complete roster in the NBA, allowing them to play chess in the NBA Playoffs and manipulate matchups. The Thunder are also sitting on a war chest of first-round picks that they could use to address any problems that arise throughout the season.

Rohit Ponnaiya, Analyst: Consider me sold on the new-look New York Knicks, who added Karl-Anthony Towns to an already-stacked lineup led by Jalen Brunson. With Mikal Bridges, Josh Hart, and OG Anunoby giving them three wings that can score and defend at a high level, this should be the best starting five in the league. Depth could be an issue but Mitchell Robinson should return by January, and I wouldn't be surprised if they traded for another bench player before that.

Douglas Farmer, Analyst: If pondering an ounce of experience when looking at depth charts, the Minnesota Timberwolves have more depth than anyone in the West. Minnesota goes eight-deep before turning to youth, which should be a differentiating factor compared to Oklahoma City (two of its three best players are in their second and third years) and Dallas (its depth is in doubt).

Ryan Murphy, Managing Editor: The Boston Celtics were so sensational last season that they made the playoffs feel like an extended coronation rather than a competition. Boston has since spent the GDP of a small European country to bring back the band and enters the season focused and deeply determined. Expect another dominant run as they become the first team since 2018 to win back-to-back titles.

NBA MVP

Writer	MVP
Andrew      Caley	Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (+500 )
Jon      Metler	Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (+500 )
Rohit      Ponnaiya	Luka Doncic (+370 )
Douglas      Farmer	Anthony Edwards (+1200 )
Ryan      Murphy	Jayson Tatum (+2000 )

Caley: Let me repeat: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is MVP-level. He averaged 30.1 points, 6.2 assists, 4.7 rebounds, and led the NBA in steals while having the highest effective field-goal percentage and true shooting percentage of his career. His PER only trailed Jokic and Giannis and his usage rate was only behind Luka. Oh: He’s also just 26 years old... and still improving.

Metler: You have to serve your time before you can win an NBA MVP award, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is at a point in his career where he could win the vote after back-to-back seasons making the First Team All-NBA. SGA will be the best player on one of the top teams in the NBA and is capable of producing the stat line needed to win NBA MVP.

Ponnaiya: Luka Doncic put up incredible numbers last year (33.9 ppg, 9.8 apg, 9.2 rpg) but his MVP campaign was held back by team success as the Mavs finished fifth in the West. However, trading for P.J. Washington and Daniel Gafford last year helped propel them into the NBA finals and after adding Klay Thompson, Spencer Dinwiddie, and Naji Marshall in the offseason, Dallas should eclipse 55 wins — which will be enough for Doncic to win his first MVP trophy.

Farmer: Anthony Edwards' shooting has never quite been like Happy Gilmore’s putting, but there has always been a reason he is most lauded for his audacious dunks. Except now Happy learned how to putt — uh oh.

Murphy: Is there anything more potent in the NBA than a petty superstar? Four months after being passed over for NBA Finals MVP honors and two months after riding the pine in Paris, Jayson Tatum is about to embark on his unofficial 2024-25 revenge tour. The Celtics forward is entering his prime at 26 and appears deeply motivated to prove to critics (and Steve Kerr) that he's the best player on the planet. Consider yourself warned.

Rookie of the Year

Writer	ROY
Andrew      Caley	Zach Edey (+350 )
Jon      Metler	Stephon Castle (+1200 )
Rohit      Ponnaiya	Zaccharie Risacher (+900 )
Douglas      Farmer	Stephon Castle (+1200 )
Ryan      Murphy	Dalton Knecht (+1600 )

Caley: This is a chalky play, but Zach Edey will be getting starter minutes on a team expected to compete in the Western Conference. He has looked like a great fit next to Ja Morant in the preseason and stands to be a looming interior presence on both ends of the floor.

Metler: It might not be a fast start for Stephon Castle and his NBA Rookie of the Year campaign as I don't anticipate high minutes right away. However, the pace at which Castle plays the game has been incredibly impressive in the NBA preseason and he has two-way potential. Ultimately, I think Castle will benefit from all the nationally televised games the Spurs will receive because of Victor Wembanyama.

Ponnaiya: In a year with no clear-cut ROTY favorite, books are undervaluing the first pick in the draft, who already has experience playing against grown men. Zaccharie Risacher scored an efficient 32 points (60 FG%, 44.4 3PT%) in 46 minutes in two preseason games and he has an easy path to minutes on a Hawks team devoid of talent.

Farmer: Who is San Antonio’s No. 2? Obviously, the Spurs will go as Victor Wembanyama goes, but who is his long-term running partner? Chris Paul will get headlines and throw lobs this season but Castle is the long-term possibility — and if San Antonio emerges as a postseason threat, Castle will get plenty of credit for it.

Murphy: Bronny James may be the NBA’s most famous rookie, but fellow Laker Dalton Knecht is arguably the best. The 23-year-old small forward was sensational in LA’s 
final preseason tune-up, scoring 35 points in 32 minutes — including 13 in overtime — to power the Lakers past the Suns. His maturity, athleticism, and superb 3-point 
shooting put him in a class all his own.

Best bet this season

Writer	Best bet
Andrew      Caley	Immanuel Quickley 20+ ppg (+150 )
Jon      Metler	Suns best record at ASB (+5500 )
Rohit      Ponnaiya	Nuggets o50.5 wins (-120 )
Douglas      Farmer	Suns to win the NBA title (+3000 )
Ryan      Murphy	LeBron James 20+ double-doubles (+175 )

Caley: As the Covers' Raptors guy, you knew there had to be some Toronto content here. The Raps took the reigns off Immanuel Quickley when they acquired him from the Knicks, and he averaged 18.6 points per game. With Toronto investing $175 million in him this offseason, they believe Quickley is primed to make another jump in his offensive development.

Metler: I think the Thunder are the best team in the league, but the Phoenix Suns offer a ton of value in this market. Mike Budenholzer wins regular-season games, and the Celtics and Thunder will be without Kristaps Porzingis and Isaiah Hartenstein for the first half of the season, giving Phoenix a bit of a boost through the early portion of the year.

Ponnaiya: The Denver Nuggets went 57-25 last year and were even better with Jamal Murray in the lineup, going 44-15 (74.6 win percentage). They'll need to figure out the starting shooting guard position after losing Kentavious Caldwell-Pope but they have the easiest schedule in the NBA, according to Positive Residual, which factors in home/road rest advantage, travel, and altitude. As long as Nikola Jokic and Murray are healthy, they won't be seven games worse than last season.

Farmer: Yes, I think Minnesota wins the title, but in terms of value, this is the best bet available and one based on the second year of recent "superteam" assemblies. Both the Timberwolves and the Mavericks came together last season after making a massive trade a year earlier; sometimes it just takes a little while for all the new pieces to click and adding an error-free point guard like Tyus Jones furthers that cause.

Murphy: Father Time will eventually come for LeBron James... but not yet. The nearly 40-year-old forward proved he still has plenty left in the tank at the Paris Olympics, where he averaged 14.2 points, 6.8 rebounds, and 8.5 assists and was named Tournament MVP. King James had 27 double-doubles a year ago and is playing with even more pep in his step this season with Bronny along for the ride. Count on one more year of stat-stuffing before his game begins to seriously decline.

Bold prediction for 2024

Writer	Bold Prediction
Andrew      Caley	76ers to miss the playoffs (+850 )
Jon      Metler	Jaden Ivey to win MIP (+6000 )
Rohit      Ponnaiya	Hornets to make the playoffs (+600 )
Douglas      Farmer	Nuggets a play-in team (+400 )
Ryan      Murphy	Wembanyama to score 60+ in a game (+2500 )

Caley: Joel Embiid will be the face of load management as the Philadelphia 76ers need him to be fully healthy come May... but will they even get there? Sixty games feels like Embiid's ceiling, while Paul George is no spring chicken. That doesn’t leave much time to gel and I wouldn’t be shocked if Philly was a play-in team. Then... all it takes is a bad matchup with a scrappy Heat or Pacers team and the Sixers season is done much sooner than expected.

Metler: The Detroit Pistons added a lot of shooting in the offseason that will create more space on the offensive end for Jaden Ivey to showcase his electric speed. A boost in minutes under new head coach JB Bickerstaff and an improved jump shot, thanks to new shooting coach Fred Vinson, should have Ivey in the thick of the NBA Most Improved Player race.

Ponnaiya: With a healthy LaMelo Ball, Brandon Miller entering his second year, and Miles Bridges as their No. 3 option, the Charlotte Hornets are more than talented enough to make the playoffs. If Mark Williams can get healthy and anchor their defense, they could sneak into the postseason in a top-heavy Eastern Conference.

Farmer: Denver's roster has become far too top-heavy. Now that is hardly a worry when the top is Nikola Jokic, but then both Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. have constant health worries. If one of them gets injured... Denver will have no margin for error.

Murphy: No player looked better down the stretch of the 2023-24 season than Victor Wembanyama, who scored 30 points or more in seven of his final 17 games. Wemby has since put on 15 pounds of muscle and will feast on a steady diet of alley-oops from future Hall of Famer Chris Paul. Sixty points is a big total, but it’s well within his ridiculously-long reach.

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