You can be forgiven if you entirely missed Game 1 between the Miami Heat and the Cleveland Cavaliers. Tucked into Sunday evening before the much more anticipated Warriors vs. Rockets matchup, Cleveland took care of business against Bam Adebayo, Tyler Herro & Co.
That 21-point win did not leave much room for Miami's belief, and my Heat vs. Cavaliers props and NBA picks do not expect much from Miami, either.
Best Heat vs Cavaliers props
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Bam Adebayo Under 9.5 rebounds (+100 at bet365) -
Donovan Mitchell Over 4.5 assists (-135 at bet365) - Duncan Robinson Over 1.5 threes (+140 at bet365)
Heat vs Cavaliers player props for April 23
Bam Adebayo Under 9.5 rebounds (+100 at bet365)
Bam Adebayo has long been the Miami Heat's franchise cornerstone. His reliability shone a bright light on Jimmy Butler’s fickle nature. The eighth-year center has averaged at least 18 points and nine rebounds for five straight years.
No doubt in Adebayo now should be heard as criticism of him. He is simply playing against too many quality big men, effectively on his own inside for the Heat. Kel’el Ware played well for a rookie this season, but he is still a 21-year-old rookie facing playoff physicality for the first time. He literally turned 21 on the day of Game 1. This intensity may be a bit much for him.
And it is an intensity inside when going against Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley. That leaves a lot on Adebayo, and in Game 1, he could not quite live up to it, 24 points and nine rebounds glossing over his 10-of-22 shooting and -13 in the +/- column.
That struggle may continue all series for Adebayo. How often does he go against two rebounders the quality of Allen and Mobley?
For that matter, Adebayo often turns his attention away from the glass. Again, that is not a criticism of him. It is a result of how much the Heat ask for from him. Nonetheless, Adebayo fell short of this prop in 12 of his 16 games in the regular season’s final month. As the playoffs slow down amid intensity, assuming he will reach double-digit rebounds is a mistake.
Donovan Mitchell Over 4.5 assists (-135 at bet365)
Donovan Mitchell dished out just four assists in the Cleveland Cavaliers' Game 1 rout. Frankly, he was a bit too busy scoring himself, pouring in 30 points on 11-of-19 shooting despite hitting only two of nine 3-point attempts,
Mitchell played well, well enough that one should assume Miami will devote some of its limited defensive resources to the Cavaliers' point guard. And the correct counter to that will be Mitchell moving the ball more.
Set aside that he averaged five assists this season. Set aside that Mitchell cleared this prop in his last four regular-season games. And set aside that he topped it in 27 of 39 games since New Year’s.
Instead, realize how little Cleveland went to its bigs in Game 1. While Mitchell, Darius Garland, and Ty Jerome combined for 85 points, … Jarrett Allen, Evan Mobley, and Max Strus combined for 30. The trio of guards took 51 shots. The trio of bigs took 23.
If the Heat want to slow down Mitchell and the Cavs’ backcourt, then that should be to the frontcourt’s benefit. Mitchell will have plenty of assist opportunities in pick-and-rolls or dump-offs to his reliable bigs.
Duncan Robinson Over 1.5 threes (+140 at bet365)
This series feels lopsided. For all that is Heat Culture — even after Jimmy Butler did his best to tear down a fourth-straight franchise upon his exit — there is no piece of logic that gives Miami a viable chance to advance. The Cavs’ point differential was 8.9 points better than the Heat’s this season. They are deeper and more consistent. It is simply hard to find a path for Miami.
The only path may be 3-point variance. The Heat need to try to get hot from deep and stay hot from deep. There is some “Heat” pun to be made there.
Tyler Herro is the obvious starting point of that thought, but Duncan Robinson can join him, and he went 2-of-3 in Game 1 in only 14 minutes. Boosting Robinson’s minutes and attempts could help swing some math toward Miami.
Getting this prop at +140 is a bit absurd for a shooter like Robinson. He made 39.3% of his 3s this season and 2.6 per game. With the thought that hot shooting is the Heat’s only way through this first round, betting on Robinson at plus-money should be a consistent follow-up for as long as this series doesn’t last.
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