Two Eastern Conference heavyweights collide tonight as the Philadelphia 76ers host the Milwaukee Bucks, both teams starting the season with sky-high expectations.
Joel Embiid and the 76ers will look to bounce back from a disappointing 126-117 loss to the Boston Celtics on opening night and avoid the pressure of an 0-2 start. For Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Bucks, this is their season opener and a chance to test themselves against one of their likely rivals in the race to reach the NBA Finals in June.
Our free NBA picks and predictions for 76ers vs. Bucks on Thursday, October 20 are tipping Philadelphia for some home cooking.
Bucks vs 76ers best odds
Bucks vs 76ers picks and predictions
The stakes could not be higher for Embiid, James Harden, and the 76ers this season, with a championship-or-bust vibe hovering over the team. Tonight is their home opener, and we expect Philadelphia to put on a show at Wells Fargo Center.
Offensively, the 76ers are already humming. A trimmed-down Harden rolled back the clock and poured in 35 points on just 14 shots against the Celtics — and that bodes well for a matchup against defensive stoppers like Antetokounmpo and Jrue Holiday.
The biggest reason to look for a Philadelphia win is the gaping hole in the Milwaukee lineup with Khris Middleton sidelined by a wrist injury. The Bucks showed in the 2022 playoffs that they still pack a punch without their sweet-shooting wing, but they’re asking a lot of Antetokounmpo on both ends against elite opponents like the 76ers.
The Philadelphia bench was a no-show in Boston (just 11 total points), but the second unit should have an edge against a thin Milwaukee roster. De’Anthony Melton and Montrezl Harrell will both find more favorable matchups here, and Matisse Thybulle will surely feature for longer than his surprising 23-second cameo against the Celtics.
Antetokounmpo will likely be asked to carry the scoring burden for the visitors while also taking the Embiid assignment on defense, and the 76ers have the luxury of leaning on former Buck PJ Tucker to share the challenge of slowing down “The Greek Freak”.
After the beatdown in Boston, we expect Philadelphia to respond and prove its title credentials. The hosts have the scoring weapons to cover this relatively small spread.
My best bet: 76ers -4 (-110 at bet365)
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Bucks vs 76ers spread analysis
As a 4-point favorite tonight, Philadelphia offers solid value. Unlike the Bucks, the 76ers had the chance to work off some of the rust on Tuesday — and Doc Rivers will no doubt have highlighted defensive lapses to clean up, including how to keep their backcourt out of the kind of mismatches that Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown destroyed. The hosts simply have to be better on that end of the floor — and we predict a more committed, consistent effort here.
While Milwaukee will be leaning heavily on a Giannis-centric offense, Philadelphia has a wealth of options. Holiday and Antetokounmpo are as good as it gets for defending the Harden-Embiid pick-and-roll, but watch for Tyrese Maxey to have a big night attacking a scrambling Bucks defense.
It’s way too early for any awards talk, but it is undeniable that Embiid and Antetokounmpo are among the top-tier NBA MVP odds candidates. One of Embiid’s standout games last season was a 42-point, 14-rebound masterclass in Milwaukee back in February — and he could approach that stat line tonight in response to a mixed offensive outing in the season opener.
With a talent edge and greater bench depth, Philadelphia is poised to quiet any early-season panic and cover this spread.
Bucks vs 76ers Over/Under analysis
The 225 total looks like a fair one. Though all three meetings between the two teams last season went Over this number, the sloppiness of October basketball is baked into the line. The 76ers had 14 turnovers on Tuesday night and there are new rotation players settling in for both teams.
If the Bucks start a jumbo lineup with Antetokounmpo, Bobby Portis, and Brook Lopez in the frontcourt, it’s tough to see where the bench scoring will come from. The visitors may be relying heavily on Jordan Nwora and veteran George Hill to provide a spark.
Still, any defense with Holiday guarding the perimeter and both Giannis and Lopez patrolling the paint is a menace. This version of the Bucks (without Middleton for 10 of their 12 playoff games) allowed just 101.3 points per game in the 2022 postseason.
I like a slight Under tonight, especially with Middleton injured and Milwaukee’s limited 3-point shooting. After coughing up 126 points in Boston on Tuesday, Philadelphia should be better defensively on its home floor.
Bucks vs 76ers betting trend to know
The Under is 7-0 in the 76ers’ last seven games after they scored 100 points or more in their previous game. Find more NBA betting trends for Bucks vs. 76ers.
Bucks vs 76ers game info
| Location: | Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia, PA |
| Date: | Thursday, October 20, 2022 |
| Tip-off: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TNT |
