Bucks vs Knicks Picks and Predictions: New Leafs in New York

Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Milwaukee Bucks visit Madison Square Garden to take on the New York Knicks Wednesday, November 30. 

The Bucks are 14-5 and are coming off a pair of impressive wins against the Dallas Mavericks and the Cleveland Cavaliers. The Knicks played just last night, a blowout win on the road against the Detroit Pistons, but have also suffered a number of heartbreaking losses recently.

Our NBA picks and predictions for Bucks vs. Knicks take a look at why two teams known by reputation for their defense will play a high-scoring game tonight.

Bucks vs Knicks best odds

Bucks vs Knicks picks and predictions

By reputation, one might expect a defense-focused, grind-it-out affair on Wednesday night, but that’s not actually all that likely. True, the Milwaukee Bucks have always been a defense-first outfit and their offense started out worse than anticipated this season, even accounting for the absence of Khris Middleton. 

But they’ve really started to turn things around lately now that most of their other starters are back and playing their usual role. Giannis Antetokounmpo has had a down year efficiency-wise, largely because he hasn’t had the surrounding shooting to allow him to punish opposing defenses inside. With Jrue Holiday and Pat Connaughton back in the lineup, he’s getting back to his bully ball ways. Giannis has scored over 35 points in three of his last four games, and over the past two weeks, Milwaukee has had the fifth-best offense overall. That’s all contributed to the Over cashing in their last four straight games.

The Knicks, who have been a middling offense with moments of brilliance, have also had things humming lately. They’ve climbed all the way to 10th overall and have been just behind the Bucks in the last two weeks as the sixth-best offense. Some of that has been some unsustainably hot shooting from Julius Randle, but a lot of it has been down to the brilliance of Jalen Brunson, who is an early-season candidate to make his first All-Star team. 

Brunson is averaging 27.8 points on 53.8/44/90.9 shooting splits in his last five games, showing no ill effects from the downgrade in spacing going from Luka Doncic’s sidekick to star of his own show on Broadway. Just like the Bucks, the Over has also cashed in the Knicks’ last four games.

One thing that should juice the scoring for both squads on Wednesday is offensive rebounding. The Knicks and Bucks are fourth and seventh in offensive rebounding rate respectively per Cleaning the Glass, and both teams rely heavily on hitting the offensive boards to score effectively in the half court. Giannis and the Bucks should have a particularly good night with this process, as the Knicks are also an inexplicably bad defensive rebounding team, ranking in the Bottom 5 in the NBA overall.

Nobody would mistake these teams for the :07 Seconds or Less Phoenix Suns, but they’ve recently found their ways to be efficient offenses, something I think augers the Over tonight.

My best bet: Over 226.5 (-110 at Betway)

Bucks vs Knicks spread analysis

The Knicks are at home for this one, but played last night and had to fly home from Detroit. The Bucks meanwhile haven’t played since their 124-115 victory over the Dallas Mavericks on Sunday. While Giannis is just 27 years old, many of the Bucks’ key contributors are sneakily on the older side, so a full two days off is huge for them.

The Knicks have really struggled at home again for the second consecutive season. Carrying on from last season, their record against the spread in their last 26 home games is an abysmal 7-18-1. Despite playing the Memphis Grizzlies and Portland Trail Blazers down to the wire, they’re also just 1-4 ATS in their last five overall. 

New York has scratched out its 10-11 overall record by beating up on the bad teams, but has wilted in the face of quality competition. Probably only the Boston Celtics can say they’ve played better than the Bucks this season.

The Knicks are on a back-to-back and have struggled mightily at home. The Bucks are rested and have a massive talent advantage. -5.5 is about right, but I’d lean Milwaukee and would not be surprised in the slightest by double-digit blowout.

Bucks vs Knicks Over/Under analysis

The other side of the coin for Wednesday’s Total is that as much as the Knicks have improved on offense recently, their defense is sinking to new, discouraging lows. The Knicks have the fifth-worst defense in the NBA per Cleaning the Glass, right down there with the likes of the barely-trying Houston Rockets. That’s hard to do as a team that has a traditional shot-blocking center on the floor for functionally every minute of every game, but the Knicks have found a way. 

Allowing 145 points to the Oklahoma City Thunder on November 13 does not appear to have woken them up either. New York has allowed 110 points or more in 10 out of their last 11 games and has shown zero signs of improvement.

Both RJ Barrett and Julius Randle have shown a baffling combination of bad technique and poor effort on a nightly basis. When your two minutes leaders bring that lack of commitment on the defensive end, even solid contributions by players like Quentin Grimes can only push the collective needle so far. 

The Bucks’ offense is not complicated, but the pressure that Giannis creates at the rim leads to open shooters and requires crisp rotations, multiple efforts, and good closeouts — simple things that the Knicks have proven incapable of sustaining for a 48-minute effort this season.

Bucks vs Knicks betting trend to know

Over is 5-0 in Knicks’ last five home games. Find more NBA betting trends for Bucks vs. Knicks.

Bucks vs Knicks game info

Bucks vs Knicks key injuries

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