At 7-0, the Milwaukee Bucks are the only remaining undefeated team in the NBA. In a season full of slow starts by supposed contenders, the Bucks machine, and Giannis, just keep grinding out wins.
One of those slow starters might be next on the hit list, as they fly to Minneapolis to play the Minnesota Timberwolves Friday, November 4. With the addition of Rudy Gobert, the Wolves were pegged by many as a regular-season juggernaut. So far though they are just .500 at 4-4 with a few issues to still to be ironed out.
Our NBA picks and predictions for Bucks vs. Timberwolves has Milwaukee as clear favorites to cover against a diminished, disjointed Wolves squad.
Bucks vs Timberwolves best odds
Bucks vs Timberwolves picks and predictions
The Wolves injury report looms large for this game, as both Rudy Gobert and Anthony Edwards are listed as questionable with a non-COVID illness. Gobert was sick enough to miss practice on Thursday and other players in the NBA seem to be coming down with the same bug, some of whom have been bedridden as a result. Obviously, if either of Ant or Gobert miss Friday’s game, the result is forfeit. But even if they play, they’re likely to be behind the eight ball in terms of conditioning and energy.
Even at full strength, this would be a generous line for a Minnesota team that has been Jekyll and Hyde. The Gobert and Karl Anthony-Towns jumbo frontcourt fit has not been seamless. In fact, were the Timberwolves an actual garment they’d likely be more seam than clothing at this point.
They’re already taking veiled snipes at one another in the media, and Edwards has already let his feelings known more than once that the new alignment is not to his liking. Ant, in turn, has faced criticism for allegedly reporting to camp in less than top condition, something that KAT seemed to allude to in a post-game presser recently.
The offense looks clunky, both as Ant suffers from reduced spacing to drive and D’Angelo Russell has not proven Mike Conley’s equal when it comes to maximizing Gobert's roll gravity. Whenever Rudy is off the court and Towns slides into a full-time center role, the team is scoring reasonably well, but getting blown off the court on the other end.
It’s far from hopeless, nor unsalvageable, and there isn’t a head coach I’d rather have trying to figure it out than Chris Finch. Finch has plenty of experience making the most of unusual pairings, but it will take time, something they don’t have as they run into the NBA’s best on Friday night.
The Bucks are playing like a well-oiled machine, they have the league’s best point differential (+11.7) and Giannis Antetokounmpo is still somehow, improbably, getting better. I like the Bucks to cover.
My best bet: Bucks -2.5 (-105 at Pinnacle)
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Bucks vs Timberwolves spread analysis
Milwaukee is listed between 2.5- and 3-point NBA odds favorites for Friday’s game, with the lion’s share of the money coming in to back the Bucks. In this instance, that broad consensus seems to be the right one. In addition to being 7-0 (with zero games from Khris Middleton no less) the Bucks are also 6-1 against the spread to start the season.
They’ve taken care of business even as they tinker some with their rotations and defensive scheme in preparation for a deep playoff run. The Wolves, by contrast, have struggled under the weight of expectations and are just 3-5 ATS.
The Bucks are just a particularly bad matchup for Minnesota even at full strength. They can play Brook Lopez at the five and stretch Gobert away from the rim, leaving KAT on an island to try and defend Giannis without fouling. To come close to covering they’ll have to overcome a structural disadvantage and poor health, I’m just not seeing it.
Bucks vs Timberwolves Over/Under analysis
The Total has been set at 227, which seems a tad high for a few reasons. First and foremost, the Bucks have the No.1-ranked defense in the league so far this season, almost four points clear of second place. They’ve been shutting teams down on the road this year, in part contributing to the Under hitting in six of their last seven road games.
A lot of their success has been down to the brilliant play of Lopez, who after missing almost the entirety of last season while recovering from back surgery, has returned to his first team All-Defense form. He’s moving well and executing Milwaukee’s patented drop defense to perfection.
The Wolves are also a solid defense, particularly with Gobert in the fold. While they to go pieces in the Gobert-less minutes, they’re so good at walling off the rim with him that they’re ranked eighth in defensive rating.
Still, as noted above, the Bucks’ ability to attack both Gobert and Towns with their starting unit should minimize some of their effectiveness on that end. The Wolves’ defense is more than 11 points better when Rudy is on the court. If Gobert cannot play or is limited, this becomes an easy Over.
Bucks vs Timberwolves betting trend to know
Bucks are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall. Find more NBA betting trends for Bucks vs. Timberwolves.
Bucks vs Timberwolves game info
| Location: | Target Center, Minneapolis, MN |
| Date: | Friday, November 4, 2022 |
| Tip-off: | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
