The Milwaukee Bucks take the best record in the NBA to the West Coast when they take on the Golden State Warriors on Saturday night. The Bucks have gone 19-1 straight up and 13-7 against the spread in their last 20 games, but will be missing superstar forward Giannis Antetokounmpo for the third-straight contest.
NBA betting lines opened with the Bucks installed as slim 1-point road favorites, but have flipped to now favor the Dubs at -3.5. Here are my best free NBA picks and predictions for Bucks vs. Warriors on March 11.
Bucks vs Warriors best odds
Bucks vs Warriors picks and predictions
The Golden State Warriors are just one game above .500, but this has been the most polarizing team in the league in terms of home/away splits. The Dubs have gone 27-7 SU (22-11-1 ATS) at home with an average scoring margin of plus-7.8 points per game, but are 7-26 SU (8-24 ATS) on the road with a scoring margin of minus-7.3 ppg.
Meanwhile, the Milwaukee Bucks have been borderline unbeatable at home but are 20-12 in away contests with an average scoring margin of plus-0.1 ppg.
With the Warriors excelling at Chase Center and now having Steph Curry back in the lineup, I'd give them a decent chance of beating Milwaukee, even if Giannis Antetokoumpo was suiting up. With the superstar officially ruled out as of 2:30 p.m. ET, I'll lay the 3.5 with the Dubs.
The Under 118.5 on the Bucks team total also looks very tempting when you consider how valuable Giannis is to Milwaukee's offense, plus Golden State's vastly improved defensive play at home.
My best bet: Warriors -3.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
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Bucks vs Warriors spread analysis
The Bucks had a 16-game winning streak snapped last Saturday, but have since bounced back with three-straight victories this week. They pulled off those last two wins (at Orlando on Tuesday and at home versus the Nets on Thursday) despite the absence of Antetokounmpo.
This spread opened with Milwaukee as 1-point chalk and jumped the fence to Golden State -1 before growing to -3.5 after Giannis was officially ruled out. The MVP candidate averages 31.2 points, 11.9 rebounds, and 5.5 assists per game but the Bucks have managed to go 9-5 in games he has missed this season.
Point guard Jrue Holiday (19.7 ppg, 7.3 apg) will carry the offensive load for Milwaukee in Antetokounmpo's absence with Bobby Portis (14.0 ppg) and Brook Lopez (15.2 ppg) contributing as well.
The Warriors had been on a five-game winning streak prior to getting back Curry, but have actually gone 0-3 SU and ATS since the two-time MVP returned to the lineup. That said, all of those losses came on the road while all the wins came at home, and we've already discussed their Jekyll and Hyde performances when leaving San Francisco.
In fact, Golden State is 0-8 SU and 0-7-1 ATS in its last eight road games but has gone 6-0 SU and ATS in their last six contests at the Chase Center.
Curry (29.6 ppg) was sidelined for a month with a leg injury, but returned to action on Sunday and is back to torching opponents. Golden State has been missing forward Andrew Wiggins for the last 10 games due to personal reasons and there's no timeline on when he'll return to the team.
Bucks vs Warriors Over/Under analysis
The Warriors play at the fastest pace in the league and can fill up the hoop in a hurry thanks to Curry, Jordan Poole (20.7 ppg), and Klay Thompson (22.0 ppg). However, they rank just 18th in defensive rating, which means they've been involved in plenty of high-scoring shootouts.
That said, they've been far better defensively at home. The Dubs surrender 123.8 ppg on 49.5% shooting on the road but have limited foes to just 111.6 ppg on 44.8 FG% at the Chase Center.
Meanwhile, the Bucks are second in the league in defensive rating while ranking fifth in scoring defense with 111.7 ppg allowed. However, they are surprisingly dead-last in the NBA in opponent turnover rate (11.5%), so they might not be able to take advantage of a Warriors team that turns the ball over at the second-highest rate in the league.
Despite being very efficient on offense, the Bucks average just 111.9 ppg on the road and it will be even tougher for them to generate points without Giannis.
Bucks vs Warriors betting trend to know
The Warriors are 44-16-1 ATS in their last 61 home games against a team with a road-winning percentage of greater than .600. Find more NBA betting trends for Bucks vs. Warriors.
Bucks vs Warriors game info
| Location: | Chase Center, San Francisco, CA |
| Date: | Saturday, March 11, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 8:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ABC |
