Thanks to their late-season swoon, few people are giving the Chicago Bulls any chance in this first-round series against the Milwaukee Bucks.
The defending champions know better to overlook anyone, though, as they round into the form that brought them that title a year ago. Without Lonzo Ball, shorthanded Chicago would face an uphill climb even if Milwaukee was not focused.
Here are our free NBA picks and predictions for the Bulls at the Bucks on April 17, with tip set for 6:30 ET.
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Bulls vs Bucks odds
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When playoff lines opened on Monday morning, the Bucks were favored by -8.5, and that line moved in only one direction during the week. By Tuesday morning, Milwaukee was favored at -9.5 at most books, and by Friday afternoon, that had steamed another point to -10.5.
The total moved comparatively less, opening at 228.5 on Tuesday at most books before bouncing between 228 and 229 up until Friday afternoon, at which point most of the board settled at 229.5.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Bulls vs Bucks predictions
Predictions made on 4/16/2022 at 3:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Bulls vs Bucks game info
• Location: Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee, WI
• Date: Sunday, April 17, 2022
• Tip-off: 6:30 p.m. ET
• TV: TNT
Bulls vs Bucks series odds
Bulls: +800
Bucks: -1,300
Bulls vs Bucks betting preview
Key injuries
Bulls: Zach LaVine PG (Questionable), Coby White SG (Questionable), Matt Thomas SG (Questionable), Alex Caruso SG (Questionable), Lonzo Ball PG (Out).
Bucks: Grayson Allen SG (Questionable), George Hill PG (Questionable), Bobby Portis PG (Questionable), Serge Ibaka PF (Questionable). Find our latest NBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Bulls went 0-3 ATS in their last three games against the Bucks, all coming in the last six weeks. Milwaukee covered those spreads by an average of 12.2 points. Find more NBA betting trends for Bulls vs. Bucks.
Bulls vs Bucks picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Spread analysis
The Bulls’ spiral has not received enough coverage, even as Chicago fell from the top ranks of the East to an afterthought as the 6-seed. Since the All-Star break, the Bulls have gone 7-16 ATS, and one of those wins was an utterly meaningless season finale at Minnesota.
Chicago not only fell down the standings but underperformed in just about every expectation. In that stretch, the Bulls fell three times to the Bucks, including twice at home. Milwaukee won those games by an average of 18 points.
In the only game settled by fewer than 20 points, Chicago leaned on DeMar DeRozan and Zach LaVine for nearly 40 minutes apiece as they combined for 59 points.
Workloads rise across the board in the playoffs, so DeRozan and LaVine should expect that usage all over again Sunday night, but the Bucks will also likely be more willing to tax their stars. One could argue they did so in that same March game, with Jrue Holiday’s 37:51 of action the least among Milwaukee’s big three.
They needed to carry the load on both sides of the floor that night, though, as the Bucks were without Pat Connaughton, Brook Lopez, and George Hill at that point. Insert those three back into the rotation, and Milwaukee’s spaced offense and lengthy defense both rear their heads.
The Bucks at full strength clearly represent a matchup problem for Chicago. Then again, Milwaukee may represent a matchup problem for anyone in the league. Since the All-Star break, the Bucks have posted the No. 5 offensive rating.
In this particular matchup, that offense should hum with ease, given the Bulls’ No. 25 defensive rating in the same time span. Chicago simply has no recourse to keep up since losing Lonzo Ball. The Bulls’ offensive rating is no better than its paltry defensive showing since the break, ranking No. 26.
When your offense compares unfavorably to the Detroit Pistons or the Houston Rockets, the two teams immediately in front of the Bulls, it sheds some light on your terrible playoff chances.
Prediction: Bucks -10 (-110 at DraftKings)
Over/Under analysis
The Unders went 6-0 in the Play-In Tournament, emphasizing the slowed-down nature of postseason play.
But focus on Milwaukee, and playing the Under becomes an even more obvious play. Brook Lopez played in 13 games this season: the season opener and then 12 of the Bucks’ final 14 games. In those 13 games, Milwaukee’s defensive rating came in at 112.5.
To put that into league-wide context, it would rank No. 6 in the league since March 14, the date of Lopez’s return, if not for two blowout losses in the two games he missed. Lopez was not the only one to miss those games, as both rest opportunities saw Thanasis Antetokounmpo play 65 more minutes than his more heralded brother, Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday combined.
When Milwaukee wants to play defense, especially since Lopez’s return, it does so with the best in the league. That should dictate the terms tonight in a game already with an inflated total.
Prediction: Under 229.5 (-109 at Unibet)
Best bet
Investing in the Bucks’ defense can backfire only if a mere blowout becomes a true comedy. Worrying about Milwaukee’s offense ruining an Under makes sense.
The counterpoint is not complicated: There is no need to worry about Chicago’s offense ruining an Under, so let’s fade it, specifically.
Since Feb. 24, the Bulls have not covered the spread in regulation in a meaningful game against an opponent scoring 100 points. To put it more simply, Chicago cannot keep up with offenses clicking at all. That tends to lead to broad collapses.
Heading into the meaningless season finale, the Bulls had lost their previous four games by an average of 19.5 points. They were thoroughly played off the court. That failure this weekend will show itself on both ends of the court, though Chicago’s offense will falter most.
Pick: Bulls TT Under 109.5 (-115 at FanDuel)
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