Bulls vs Raptors Picks and Predictions: DeMar Soars Over Questionable Point Total

The NBA Play-In Tournament goes north of the border tonight when the Toronto Raptors welcome the Chicago Bulls in the No. 9 vs. No. 10 matchup, with the right to fight Miami for the final ticket to the playoffs.

In the final month of the season, both Chicago and Toronto took advantage of weaker foes while neither team could get over the hump with consistent showings against the league’s upper echelon. That left them bobbing at the bottom of the play-in cut-off.

The Raptors were able to pick up one more win than the Bulls, which means Toronto is playing host. It’s a notable venue for Canadian sports bettors, with the Raps owning the second-best home ATS record in the NBA at 25-15-1 (62.5%).

I run down the spread and Over/Under total for tonight’s Eastern Conference play-in game and give my best NBA picks and predictions for the Bulls vs. Raptors.  

Bulls vs Raptors best odds

Bulls vs Raptors picks and predictions

The Toronto Raptors welcome an old friend back to the Big Smoke in former standout DeMar DeRozan.

DeRozan, who has averaged 22.5 points per game since the All-Star break, hasn’t been too aggressive against the Raptors this season with point totals of nine, 13, and 20 in their three meetings. And in his post-Toronto career, he’s averaged 21.5 points against the Raps during stints in San Antonio and Chicago.

That’s where his points prop for tonight’s play-in game sits: 21.5 (Over -111).

Throwing his final game of the regular season out the window (total of 13.5 points in limited minutes), DeRozan has seen scoring props between 23.5 and 25.5 in the past nine games. He’s gone Under in all but two of those outings with his production dipping in the home stretch.

DeRozan’s scoring projections for Wednesday range from 20.5 to as high as 25.8 points, with my number hitting in the middle at 23.7. With DeRozan averaging just 14 points over his three meetings with Toronto and the Raps’ versatile wing defenders, the Under is a tempting take.

His lack of production against the Raptors is purely a lack of shots from DeRozan, who shot a collective 16-for-26 over those three games – less than nine field goal attempts per contest.

Tonight, the Chicago Bulls need their star player to step up and take shots as well as attack the rim and get to the foul line with the season in the balance.

Chicago’s pick-and-roll heavy playbook will be throwing the bodies at Toronto’s defenders tonight, trying to create space for DeRozan. I see him getting up around 19 shots and cashing in freebies from the stripe, finishing above this modest point prop of 21.5.

My best bet: DeMar DeRozan Over 21.5 points (-111)

Bulls vs Raptors spread analysis

With the Eastern Conference postseason picture painted, framed, and hung on the wall since late last week, books opened Toronto between -4.5 and -5 at home. That spread has climbed to as high as Raptors -5.5 as the industry consensus on Wednesday morning.

As mentioned, Toronto has been a moneymaker inside Scotiabank Arena this season, with a home net rating of +4.5 vs. a road metric of -1.6. The Raptors see a slight uptick in offense as hosts but it’s the defensive end that really gets a boost from playing in Ontario.

Toronto has allowed the second-fewest points at home since the All-Star break, checking visitors to just 108.6 points over those 23 games. Some of those results have to do with softer scoring opposition coming to Canada in that span as well as the Raptors’ commitment to protecting the perimeter (allowed 10.2 triples against at home since All-Star break).

The Bulls have also got the job done on the defensive end. Chicago closed the post-break schedule with the best advanced defensive rating in the land (110.1) and that stingy play traveled with the team as well. The Bulls posted a net rating of +6.8 on the road in the final 11 away games, going 8-3 SU and 6-4-1 ATS.

These clubs last clashed in late February with Toronto taking a 104-98 win as 3.5-point home chalk. Chicago shot 52% from the floor but coughed the ball up 20 times, which led to 21 points off turnovers for the Raptors. The Bulls held a 2-point lead heading into the fourth quarter but were outscored 34-26 in those final 12 minutes.

Bulls vs Raptors Over/Under analysis

The Over/Under total for Wednesday’s play-in tournament tilt opened as high as 216 points and has slowly slimmed with play on the Under since Saturday evening. This number is now as low as 213.5 points.

The short total is warranted considering the quality of the defenses taking the court but also the pace of these two offenses. Toronto sits 26th in pace rating (97.08) since the All-Star break while Chicago owns the slowest tempo in the land over the previous 23 games (96.17).

The offensive output of these teams has been identical since March, with both sides scoring just 113.7 points per night. Their February 28 meeting called for an Over/Under number of 219 points, with the final score staying well below that mark.

The Raptors' scoring has been spotty at best the past month, with the team failing to breach its season average of 113 points in four of its last seven games, with those bigger outputs coming against a tanking Charlotte team and Milwaukee squad resting all its starters in the season finale.

As mentioned, Toronto does a good job protecting its home court and limiting the damage teams do from beyond the arc. That may not be too tough of a task against a Bulls offense that averages the fewest 3-point attempts per game on the year and makes less than 11 triples per outing since the break.

This will be the fourth head-to-head between Chicago and Toronto this season, with the previous three encounters all staying Under totals of 219, 220, and 221.5 points.

Bulls vs Raptors betting trend to know

The Bulls are 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine road games. Find more NBA betting trends for Bulls vs. Raptors.

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