Everyone knows about the Oklahoma City Thunder’s record, 14.5 games clear of anyone else in the Western Conference and amid a 10-game winning streak.
Not as many people realize Oklahoma City is on a 10-game streak of beating the spread, too.
The shorthanded Detroit Pistons have little hope of snapping that streak, not when on the road against the best team in the Assocation.
My Pistons vs. Thunder predictions are going to break a usual gambling rule, but all rules have exceptions, right? Read more in my NBA picks for Wednesday, April 2.
Pistons vs Thunder prediction
My best bet: Thunder -13 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
One of my most trusted gambling axioms is to “Buy on bad news, sell on good.” The premise is simple: The public overreacts to headlines, undervaluing bench and rotation players that step into bigger roles. That overreaction then provides betting value if you are willing to run counter to it.
But every rule has an exception, and the Detroit Pistons should prove that tonight.
With Cade Cunningham doubtful, thanks to a nagging calf (and Tobias Harris probable amid an Achilles worry), Detroit now has to navigate three suspensions thanks to immature actions on Sunday. Losing Isaiah Stewart, Ron Holland, and Marcus Sasser may not seem like a huge deal, but the Pistons’ rotation now has to look to Simone Fontecchio and Paul Reed as the seventh and eighth options.
When compared to the Oklahoma City Thunder’s bench, Fontecchio and Reed are both liabilities. There is a reason the second-year Italian has been a distant depth piece, last shooting 1-for-8 in extended action on Sunday against the Timberwolves. Similarly, the 25-year-old Reed has seen action in just four games since March 4, two of those being closing minutes amid blowouts.
Fontecchio and Reed will now need to play plenty of minutes against the best rotation in the NBA.
Some may worry about a backdoor cover in a blowout tonight, but realize that scenario would still have the likes of Aaron Wiggins, Isaiah Joe, Kenrich Williams, and Jaylin Williams playing against Fontecchio, Reed, and, ummmmm... Lindy Waters III?
As hefty as this spread is, any Thunder lead should be extended late. The mismatches will become only more laughable the deeper into the bench the Pistons have to reach without Stewart, Holland, and Sasser around.
Pistons vs Thunder same-game parlay
Thunder -13
Pistons team total Under 109.5
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Under 32.5 points
During this 10-game ATS and outright winning streak, eight Thunder opponents have fallen short of their team totals. One might worry that tonight could become such a blowout that Oklahoma City forsakes late defense, but that is still putting a lot of confidence in the Pistons’ deepest reserves to play adequately.
Doubting Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is meant as broader confidence in the Thunder to cruise. The MVP frontrunner should not need to play in this fourth quarter.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Pistons vs Thunder odds
Pistons vs Thunder live odds
Pistons vs Thunder opening odds
- Spread: Detroit +12.5 | Oklahoma City -12.5
- Moneyline: Detroit +650 | Oklahoma City -1000
- Over/Under: Over 229.5 | Under 229.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
Pistons vs Thunder spread and Over/Under analysis
- This spread opened with Detroit as a 12.5-point underdog, a number jumping to +14.5 in Tuesday’s latest hours.
- It returned to +13.5 early on Wednesday and then settled at +13 late in the morning, perhaps sparked by Tobias Harris’s likely return.
- This total opened at 229.5 and climbed to 231 late on Tuesday, climbing to 232 early on Wednesday.
Pistons vs Thunder trend
Oklahoma City has gone 10-0 ATS in its last 10 games, exceeding bookmakers’ expectations by an average of 10.3 points. Find more NBA betting trends for Pistons vs. Thunder.
How to watch Pistons vs Thunder
| Location | Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK |
| Date | Wednesday, 4-2-2025 |
| Tip-off | 9:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Pistons vs Thunder latest injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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