The last week of the NBA regular season may be plagued by injuries, blowouts, and teams with nothing at stake. But none of that applies to the Minnesota Timberwolves or the Memphis Grizzlies.
They are both largely healthy; tonight’s matchup has a spread within a bucket, and they have plenty at stake. Both are desperately trying to avoid the Play-In Tournament, likely needing a win tonight to do so.
My Timberwolves vs. Grizzlies predictions and NBA picks expect a playoff-like approach at tip at 9:30 ET on Thursday, April 10.
Timberwolves vs Grizzlies prediction
My best bet: Under 231 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
This is a playoff game. Treat it as such.
The Minnesota Timberwolves will be well-positioned to be the No. 6 seed if they can win tonight, while a loss would doom them to the Play-In Tournament, possibly as low as the No. 8 seed, and thus on the road to start the postseason.
The Memphis Grizzlies need to win at least one of the two games of their back-to-back, either tonight at home or tomorrow at Denver. And even splitting the two games may not be enough for Memphis to escape the Play-In. Winning out would be the only sure thing.
There is no discernible rest advantage for either team, both enjoying late leads on Tuesday — though the Timberwolves then blew their 24-point lead while the Grizzlies proceeded to win by 24. Both had to then fly to Memphis.
With no extenuating circumstances aside from their mutually perilous perches in the standings, treat this as a straightforward playoff game. With that in mind, this total is clearly too high.
Postseason totals plummet. Anecdotally, fewer fouls are called. Whether that is actually the case or not — it’s not a significant difference — teams play more tense. Things slow down. Scouting reports are more thorough.
All of that should be true tonight with the possible exception of the scouting reports. Memphis fired Taylor Jenkins two weeks ago. The Grizzlies have now won their last three games, all falling short of their totals. Zach Edey, in particular, has seen more playing time.
If Memphis is slowing down, that should only further this belief in tonight’s Under. It will certainly add to the playoff feel.
Timberwolves vs Grizzlies same-game parlay
Under 231
Zach Edey Over 10.5 rebounds
Rudy Gobert Over 11.5 rebounds
Edey’s points have not jumped since Jenkins’s firing, averaging the same 9.8 points in the last six games as he was in the month beforehand. But his minutes have jumped to 26.6 from 20.7 per game, naturally raising his rebounds per game to 13.7 from 7.4.
He is simply playing more.
Adding Rudy Gobert’s rebounding prop here may seem counterintuitive, given he and Edey will be competing for those rebounds. But Gobert has been so focused on his rebounding of late, it needs to be considered for every Timberwolves game. Gobert has notched at least 11 rebounds in seven of his last eight games, clearing this prop in six of them.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Timberwolves vs Grizzlies odds
Timberwolves vs Grizzlies live odds
Timberwolves vs Grizzlies opening odds
- Spread: Minnesota +1 (-110) | Memphis -1 (-110)
- Moneyline: Minnesota -105 | Memphis -115
- Over/Under: Over 233.5 (-110) | Under 233.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Timberwolves vs Grizzlies spread and Over/Under analysis
- Minnesota opened as a one-point underdog on Wednesday night, the spread jumping the fence early on Thursday and then ticking to favoring the Timberwolves by two in the midmorning.
- Why jump the fence? Logic says the Wednesday night line was simply mispriced.
- This total opened at 233.5 and ticked down to 232.5 by Thursday morning and then to 231 before lunch.
Timberwolves vs Grizzlies trend
Both Minnesota and Memphis have cashed the Under in their last three games. Find more NBA betting trends for Timberwolves vs. Grizzlies.
How to watch Timberwolves vs Grizzlies
| Location | FedExForum, Memphis, TN |
| Date | Thursday, 4-10-2025 |
| Tip-off | 9:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | TNT |
Timberwolves vs Grizzlies latest injuries
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