Cavaliers vs Heat Picks and Predictions: Garland Heats Up in South Beach

The Miami Heat welcome the Cleveland Cavaliers tonight, and if physical, defense-first basketball is your thing, this one is for you.

The Cavaliers continue to ride the league’s stingiest defense as they edge closer to home-court advantage for the first round of the playoffs. 

None of the top contenders in the East would be excited to face a physical, well-coached Heat team in the opening round. Erik Spoelstra’s men are allowing the second-fewest points per game in the league but relied on one of their better offensive outings on Monday to beat the Hawks 130-128.

Check out our free Cavaliers vs. Heat NBA picks and predictions for a deep dive ahead of tonight’s showdown.

Cavaliers vs Heat best odds

Cavaliers vs Heat picks and predictions

When you look at the Cavaliers, the defense is the headline act, especially with Evan Mobley taking further steps forward in year two. At the other end of the floor, it’s all about Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland, who have to be in any conversation about the NBA’s best backcourts. That’s where I’m focusing tonight.

Mitchell has hit the 40-point mark in two of his last three games, but I’m leaning more toward the Garland props here, with the Heat well-placed to throw wing defenders to at least make Mitchell work for his points. 

Even so, both of these guards should be able to stay away from Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo and hunt mismatches against Tyler Herro and Max Strus. They’re also the type of sharpshooters who can blow up the Heat’s zone defense. 

The Garland points + assists prop jumps out to me as particularly good value. It’s a number that the Cavs point guard has gone Over in each of his last seven outings — and I expect Cleveland to put the ball in his hands a lot as it tries to improve a patchy road record.

Some nights, like Monday against the Celtics, Garland’s numbers tilt towards playmaking (12 assists to go with 17 points), and other nights he takes on a bigger share of the scoring, going over 20 points in five of his last seven games.

For this prop, it doesn’t matter which version of Garland shows up — he’s going to stuff the stat sheet either way.

My best bet: Darius Garland Over 26.5 points + assists (-120)

Cavaliers vs Heat spread analysis

The Cavaliers have a 5.5-game lead over the Heat in the Eastern Conference standings but the small spread suggests there’s little to choose between these teams once Miami’s home-court advantage is factored in.

Though Cleveland has been quietly underwhelming on its travels this season (13-19 on the road overall), the visitors look like a good value pick tonight in the first of two matchups in Miami this week.

Sure, the Cavaliers needed overtime and a scoring masterclass from Mitchell to see off an undermanned Celtics team on Monday, but I expect Garland to have a better shooting night here after a rough 6-for-18 effort against Boston.

Meanwhile, the Heat have been wildly up and down. Despite back-to-back wins, they’re 4-6 in their last 10 games and needed an unsustainable 59 points from their bench to outlast Atlanta on Monday.

Miami is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games after scoring 100 points or more in the previous game, but it’s worth noting that this arena has been an ATS house of horrors for the Cavaliers for almost a decade, with Cleveland only covering the spread in three of its last 16 visits.

Cavaliers vs Heat Over/Under analysis

With Mitchell and Garland pulling the strings, the Cavaliers have been lighting it up offensively, and all their trends are firmly pointing toward the Over. It’s hit in their last four road games and in five of their last six outings after an ATS loss. The Over is also 7-1 in the last eight meetings between these two teams in Miami.

The number one reason for caution on the Over is the Miami offense — and the hosts could be without Kevin Love, the former Cav who is already emerging as a key floor spacer for the Heat.

Though Miami torched the Hawks’ defense last time out, the Heat have struggled to crack 100 points against top-tier defenses (99 points against the Bucks in late February, 96 points against the 76ers to tip off March) — and the Cavaliers certainly fall into that category.

Cavaliers vs Heat betting trend to know

The Heat have fallen short of their best basketball lately when playing on one day’s rest. Miami is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games in this spot. Find more NBA betting trends for Cavaliers vs. Heat.

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