Cavaliers vs Rockets Picks and Predictions: Failure to Launch for Houston

The Cleveland Cavaliers head west on Thursday, January 26 to take on the struggling Houston Rockets. The Cavaliers are coming off a last-second loss to the New York Knicks on Tuesday and might be once more without the services of All-Star guard Donovan Mitchell. The Rockets are also looking for redemption after last night's collapse to the Washington Wizards, as this young team continues to find new ways to lose.

Our NBA picks and predictions for Cavaliers vs. Rockets believe that Cleveland will prove too much for this listless Houston team on a back-to-back.

Cavaliers vs Rockets best odds

Cavaliers vs Rockets picks and predictions

The Houston Rockets should be better than this. Pegged by many as one of the most exciting young teams in the NBA coming into the season, they’ve been more or less unwatchable for months at this point. When veteran guard Eric Gordon was asked recently about where he saw the roster and the young talent developing since the start of the season, he said flatly “there’s no improvement”. And frankly, it’s hard to disagree too strongly with him.

The Rockets have won just two of their last 21 games, including a soul-crushing 13-game losing streak. They have the league's second-worst defense, ensuring that no lead they ever have is safe. A bad defense is to be expected from one of the NBA’s youngest rosters, but the defensive talent on this team is adding up to much less than the sum of its parts. 

But even if one excuses the defense, what is inexcusable, and almost inexplicable, is that the Houston Rockets have the worst offense in the NBA per Cleaning the Glass. 30th out of 30 with a team that has dynamic scoring guards, veteran sharpshooters like Gordon, and one of the most advanced post players in the NBA in Alperen Sengun. For much of the season, the former 18-year-old MVP of the Turkish League has been a bystander for most plays as the Rockets force-fed the ball to less naturally inclined scorers and playmakers. 

At least that much has begun to change recently, as Stephen Silas has finally begun to empower Sengun. The Turkish wunderkind is up to 23.6 points, 12.2 rebounds, and 7.2 assists in his last five games after averaging just 15.5 ppg, 9 boards, and 3 assists on the season to date. He’s also added 3.2 stocks in his last five outings as he’s become more involved in the defensive action, and has a +5.1 efficiency differential in terms of on/off.

But there are limitations to funneling your offense through a post up big like Sengun, and against the Cavaliers they might become acutely noticeable. The Cavs do a great job with the length of Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley, limiting the vision and passing angles of any paint-bound player. 

Sengun might be in a position to score, but he won’t feel comfortable dribbling with one of Mobley or Allen shading towards him off one of the Rockets' many below-average shooters. That Houston is on a back-to-back makes such gambles even more likely to be profitable, as tired guards have a tendency to short-arm 3s. He’s also not utilized like Domantas Sabonis as a dribble-hand-off-centric offensive fulcrum. His post-up playmaking, for now, is more static, making him more predictable and easier to defend. 

The Rockets have found something with Sengun, but as a group they have a long way to go before they’re consistently competitive against a team as good as Cleveland. With the Rockets on a back-to-back, I think there’s little chance they keep this one close.

My best bet: Cavaliers -7.5 (-110 888sport)

Cavaliers vs Rockets spread analysis

Neither of these two teams have favorable trends against the spread to speak of recently, but the Cavaliers' relative struggles look a lot better lined up against the Rockets’ ones. The Cavs are just 4-13-2 against the spread in their last 19 road games, but the Rockets are just 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 games overall, including a putrid 1-9 ATS in their last 10. They’re only a couple of games removed from a 13-game losing streak, so to consistently underperform even the depressed expectations that come with that level of losing is kind of impressive.

Mitchell’s potential absence might naturally give one pause about laying the Cavaliers in this one. Cleveland’s traditional starting lineup featuring Darius Garland, Isaac Okoro, Mobley, Allen, and Mitchell has a solid 122.6 offensive rating. But Mitchell is surprisingly only a slight net positive as a player on the season per Cleaning the Glass. The Cavaliers have a ready-made philosophy and winning style of play from their previous season together that they can comfortably rely on even in the event of Mitchell’s absence.

Ultimately, the Rockets facing a back-to-back is the deciding factor. They’re 0-4 ATS in their last four games playing on zero days of rest.

Cavaliers vs Rockets Over/Under analysis

What do you get when you match up the league’s worst offense on a back-to-back against the NBA’s second-best defense? A paltry 223.5 Total. The Rockets have simply struggled to score against any team giving a serious effort, which has seen the Under go 16-5 in their last 21 games against teams with a winning record. After a crushing loss to the Knicks on Tuesday, one expects the Cavaliers to be properly motivated to put this one away early.

Cleveland has also sneakily struggled with their own offense recently. Their 116.2 offensive rating is the 10th-worst in the NBA over the last five games, notably three of which Mitchell did not play. Mitchell reaggravated his nagging groin strain at the buzzer of their game on Tuesday, and while he’s listed as questionable for today’s matchup, it would seem foolhardy in the extreme by Cleveland’s medical staff to rush him back onto the court a second time.

But they should expect a lot of open looks against a fatigued Rockets team that looks disorganized even on the best of days. The Cavs have picked apart the bottom-feeder teams with their dynamite pick-and-roll play, which has seen the Over go 8-2-1 in their last 11 road games against teams with a home winning percentage of less than .400. For their part, the Rockets give up a lot of points on back-to-backs. The Over is 19-8 in the Rockets' last 27 games playing on zero days of rest.

Cavaliers vs Rockets betting trend to know

Rockets are 0-4 ATS in their last four games playing on zero days’ rest. Find more NBA betting trends for Cavaliers vs. Rockets.

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