Cavaliers vs Suns Picks and Predictions: Spread Not Reflective of Talent Discrepancy

It’s officially time to panic in Arizona... the Phoenix Suns are losers of five straight and eight of their last 10, with Devin Booker’s return nowhere near in sight.

Chris Paul seems to be well and entering the twilight of his career, and a Suns team that looked thin to start the year is now functionally translucent.

The Cleveland Cavaliers are coming off a loss where they were outclassed by the Denver Nuggets, but with their full complement available today, they’re in a strong position to get back on the winning track on Sunday.

Our NBA picks and predictions for Cavaliers vs. Suns believe that Phoenix is too banged up to keep things close in this rematch with Cleveland and Donovan Mitchell.

Cavaliers vs Suns best odds

Cavaliers vs Suns picks and predictions

Fortunes change fast in the NBA. About a month ago the Phoenix Suns were the top record in the Western Conference at 16-8 and looked destined to cruise to home-court advantage. Since then, they’ve gone 4-12, dropping to 20-20 on the season, including this current five-game losing streak. 

While they’ve staved off complete collapse on the back of their Top-10 defense, they’ve completely fallen apart on offense without Devin Booker. Over the past two weeks, they’ve played at the level of the league's 29th offense and have posted a -5.4 point differential. 

The Suns have a -4.2 spread differential in that same span, as they’re routinely not meeting even lowered expectations set by sportsbooks. The biggest problem is that Chris Paul appears to be close to the end of his career. He’s averaging career lows in shot attempts and efficiency and is being targeted on defense like never before.

But the problems don’t end with CP3, as Mikal Bridges — normally a steadfast and efficient two-way contributor — has hit the mother of all slumps. He’s now posted three straight games with a field goal percentage lower than 40% while shooting 28.6% from three in that same span. 

The Cleveland Cavaliers by contrast started the season strong and have never really looked back. Their starting lineup has still been less effective than perhaps expected, but they can lean on so many strong units with some combination of Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland running the offense and Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen manning the defense. 

These two played recently, and it ended up a close run thing and ultimately a 2-point victory for the Cavaliers. But a lot had to break right for Phoenix for it to get to that point, and after playing 40 minutes that night, Chris Paul could only manage 12 in their next game against the Miami Heat. The Cavaliers were also dealing with the understandable emotional letdown following Mitchell’s 71-point masterpiece. 

With Cameron Payne expected to miss Sunday’s game, the Suns are desperate for ball handling and creation. What they have left in the cupboard just does not rate next to Cleveland's embarrassment of riches. I like Cleveland to cover at -4.5.

My best bet: Cavaliers -4.5 (-110 at bet365)

Cavaliers vs Suns spread analysis

NBA odds moved this line from -3.5 to -4.5 in favor of the Cavaliers, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see it move another half-point or so before tip-off. That’s not because Cleveland has been dominant though, far from it. The Cavaliers are just 1-5-1 against the spread in their last seven games. 

But they are just so much more talented at every position than this version of the Suns and they’ve proven resilient following a loss like the one they just suffered to the Denver Nuggets. The Cavaliers are 5-1-2 ATS in their last eight games following a loss of more than 10 points. They bounce back strong when they hit adversity, which is why they’re currently the fourth seed in a highly-competitive East.

The Suns have shown flashes of life here and there, but they’re well on their way to being a Play-In team at their current level of play. They’re 1-4 ATS in their last five overall and just 2-5 ATS in their last seven at home. It’s just hard to see what their path to victory is against Cleveland, other than outrageous shooting luck.

Cavaliers vs Suns Over/Under analysis

This very modest total of 218.5 is a reflection of both of the Cavaliers' seasons-long defensive mastery as well as the Suns' recent offensive ineptitude. Phoenix has a had 108.6 offensive rating over the last seven games, which would be the league's worst over a full season. 

Even in the game they nearly beat Cleveland on Wednesday they only managed to score a grand total of 88 points. They’ve scored an average of just 94.6 points over their last five games, which is a huge part of why the Under has cashed in their last four straight.

The Cavaliers have the league’s third-best defense this season, but they’ve slipped a bit recently. The Over is 7-2 in Cavaliers' last nine, and that’s only minorly due to Donovan Mitchell’s nuclear explosion against the Bulls. But again, the Cavs have rallied to their defensive identity when coming off a loss, which is why the Under is 6-2 in the Cavaliers' last eight games following a loss. Even at this number, I'd lean towards the Under.

Cavaliers vs Suns betting trend to know

The Cavaliers are 5-1-2 ATS in their last eight games following a straight-up loss of more than 10 points. Find more NBA betting trends for Cavaliers vs. Suns.

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Cavaliers vs Suns key injuries

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