The new-look Toronto Raptors return to action following the All-Star break. Well, kind of. Brandon Ingram isn’t expected to suit up for his new team anytime soon, so the Raps will march on without him as they host the Miami Heat.
So, let’s focus on someone suiting up as Toronto is a slight home underdog against a Miami team trying to find its identity with Jimmy Butler now gone.
My Raptors vs. Heat predictions look at how Immanuel Quickley will impact this game, and not just with his scoring. Here are my NBA picks for this Eastern Conference matchup set to tip off at 7:30 pm ET at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, on Friday, February 21.
Raptors vs Heat prediction
My Raptors pick
Immanuel Quickley Over 5.5 assists (-105 at PointsBet Canada)
My analysis
It’s a new era for both the Toronto Raptors and the Miami Heat.
Toronto shocked much of the basketball world by trading for New Orleans Pelicans forward Brandon Ingram and then immediately extending him by three years. While Miami, on the other hand, ended the Jimmy Butler saga by shipping him off to the Golden State Warriors.
However, Ingram is still dealing with an ankle injury that could keep him out for at least another few weeks. So, the Raptors must move forward without the newest piece of their core for the time being.
Luckily, the other three-quarters of the Raptors core four are available for this one. Scottie Barnes, RJ Barrett, and Immanuel Quickley. Tonight, I want to focus on Quickley.
It was a tough start to the season for Quickley thanks to injuries and he only ended up playing three of the team’s first 33 games. But he entered the All-Star break healthy and basically back up to full minutes, averaging 16 points, 5.3 assists, and 4.3 rebounds while shooting 38.5% from 3-point range over his last four games.
And that was against some very tough competition, including the Oklahoma City Thunder, the Houston Rockets, and the Cleveland Cavaliers.
Miami is also going through a transition and was happy to get to the break. The Heat have lost four in a row straight up and are 1-6-1 against the spread in their last eight overall.
Miami is a solid defensive team, but that has slipped a bit recently, ranking 18th during this eight-game stretch and you have always been able to break them down with the extra pass. The Heat come out of the break ranked 22nd in opponent assists per game.
I like the Raptors and Quickley to push the pace on offense against the Heat tonight in front of the home crowd, where his assists per game jumps up to 6.1 this season. Plus, our Covers Prop Projections have Quickley marked down for 6.6 assists tonight. So, I’ll happily take IQ to dish out Over 5.5 dimes at close to even money.
Raptors vs Heat same-game parlay
Immanuel Quickley Over 5.5 assists
Immanuel Quickley Over 15.5 points
Heat Team Total Under 110.5
Let’s double-down on the IQ props in this same-game parlay and take him to go Over a modest point total of 15.5. Like I said, it was a rough start to the season, but Quickley looks healthy now and has posted 20, 23, and 15 points over his last three games while shooting 48.6% from the floor and 39.1% from beyond the arc.
And let’s close this SGP out with the Heat to stay Under their team total of 110.5. For starters, the Heat offense is struggling. Miami ranks 27th in offensive rating and are averaging just 105.2 points over the last 12 games, topping this 110.5 mark just three times during that period and once was aided by overtime. They also play at the fourth slowest pace in the NBA.
Meanwhile, the Raptors defense has been a little better lately. They rank eighth in defensive rating over the last 15 games. What I like about this leg of the parlay is that the Raps can lose this game and still keep the Heat below this number.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Raptors vs Heat odds
Raptors vs Heat live odds
Raptors vs Heat opening odds
- Spread: Toronto +3 | Miami -3
- Moneyline: Toronto +140 | Miami -165
- Over/Under: Over 220 | Under 220
Odds courtesy of PointsBet Canada
Raptors vs Heat spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Raptors opened this Eastern Conference matchup as 3-point home underdogs but have seen the early action, moving the spread to 2.5 at some shops.
- The Raptors went in a little ATS lull in the middle of the first half of the season, but have been one of the better bets in the NBA overall at 33-23-1 ATS. They are also 2-1 ATS vs. the Heat this season, including an outright win as 4.5-point pups back on Dec. 1.
- The total hit the board at 220 and has been bet down slightly to 119.5 as of midday Friday.
- When the Raptors' defense slips, they become a solid Over play thanks to their high-tempo offense. But the defense has improved lately. Meanwhile, the Heat tend to slow things down and the offense has struggled and have played to the Under in five of their last seven.
Raptors vs Heat trend
The Raptors have covered the Spread in 36 of their last 61 games for +10.70 Units and a 16% ROI. Find more NBA betting trends for Raptors vs. Heat.
How to watch Raptors vs Heat
| Location | Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, Canada |
| Date | Friday, 2-21-2025 |
| Tip-off | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | FanDuel Sports Network-SU, SN, SN |
Raptors vs Heat latest injuries
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