Celtics vs Bucks Picks and Predictions: Milwaukee Delivers Xmas Gift for Backers

Current realities may have robbed this game of its greatest star, but the defending champions deserve the NBA spotlight, nonetheless, and few spotlights are greater than when you need a break from your family on Christmas Day.

Here are our free NBA picks and predictions for Boston Celtics vs Milwaukee Bucks on Christmas Day, December 25.

Celtics vs Bucks odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

Lookahead lines favored Milwaukee by about 7, but by the earliest hours of Christmas Eve, it had reopened at Bucks by 3.5, presumably due to the names in the NBA’s health and safety protocols.

The total had once been as high as 227.5, but after the usual opening hours, it was down to 219.5.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Celtics vs Bucks predictions

• Prediction: Bucks -3.5 (-105)
• Prediction: Under 219.5 (-110)
• Best bet: Bucks -3.5 (-105)

Predictions made on 12/24/2021 at 5:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Celtics vs Bucks game info

• Location: Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee, WI
• Date: Saturday, December 25, 2021
• Tip-off: 2:30 p.m. ET
• TV: ABC

Celtics vs Bucks betting preview

Injuries

Celtics: Enes Freedom C (Out), Sam Hauser SF (Out), Juancho Hernangomez PF (Out), Al Horford C (Out), Jabari Parker PF (Out), Josh Richardson SG (Out), Brodric Thomas PG (Out), Grant Williams PF (Out).
Bucks: Giannis Antetokounmpo SF (Out), Donte DiVincenzo SG (Out), Bobby Portis PF (Out), Brook Lopez C (Out), Sandro Mamukelashvili PF (Questionable).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.

Betting trend to know

Giannis Antetokounmpo SF (Out), Donte DiVincenzo SG (Out), Bobby Portis PF (Out), Brook Lopez C (Out), Sandro Mamukelashvili PF (Questionable). Find more NBA betting trends for Celtics vs. Bucks.

Celtics vs Bucks picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Spread analysis

What a mess. The NBA once envisioned this as a possible second-round preview, the defending champions against the always-tantalizing Eastern Conference legacy franchise. Instead, as of the sun’s rise on Christmas Eve, the NBA is not even completely certain what time this game will tip, warning all Christmas Day teams it may move games around up until 24 hours beforehand.

Yet, as long as at all possible, the game will be played. Christmas Day is too big a platform for the NBA to walk away from unless absolutely necessary.

The Bucks remain in the Top 4 in the conference — all that the defending champions should really focus on at this point — while the Celtics are dangerously close to falling out of the play-in grouping. That may suggest Boston has more motivation this week, but in the long NBA season, the greater takeaway is that Milwaukee is that much better.

This handicapper has made money on the Celtics before during this very outbreak by pointing out they usually have the two best players on the court in Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, who have both somehow avoided health and safety protocols thus far. (Cue the hardest of knocks on wood.) But that will not be true against the Bucks, not as long as Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday enjoy the same fortune. (Again, bruise your knuckles on that kitchen table.)

Middleton and Holiday plus Milwaukee’s supporting staff would make for a solid Eastern Conference playoff contender all on its own, while Tatum and Brown are having trouble dragging Boston to that status.

Ideally, these ramblings would be more focused on offensive tendencies or defensive mismatches, but as rosters evolve by the literal hour, a broader view makes for a better handicap.

Looking at the box scores from each team’s most recent game — Dec. 23 for the Bucks and Dec. 22 for the Celtics — one can argue Milwaukee started three genuine NBA starters (adding Pat Connaughton to Middleton and Holiday) with four or five more usual NBA contributors in the rotation. Boston, meanwhile, started four, except one of them is already into the protocols since then. Off the bench, the Celtics had only Dennis Schroder as a reasonably respected name yet available.

These rosters are depleted, but the better team is also the more available team.

Prediction: Bucks -3.5 (-105)

Over/Under analysis

Honesty is the backbone of handicapping content. Here’s honesty: Yours truly wagered on the lookahead totals back in late October for every Christmas Day game. That was simply betting the numbers were set too high, as most NBA numbers were early in the season. That now feels like found money and maybe some nieces and nephews should have gotten nicer Christmas presents.

Here’s more honesty: Betting on just about every Under as the NBA deals with this chaos feels like the smart move, completely blindly. When the Celtics need to play Payton Pritchard for 21 minutes, as they did Wednesday night, it does not bode well. Before this outbreak, he had played more than 12 minutes just once this season. Let’s not even mention seven-time All-Star Joe Johnson getting some minutes nearly four seasons after he last played in the NBA, all due respect intended to Iso Joe.

Milwaukee may be in a better position, but who knows how tenuous that is.

Look at it this way: Bench surges are what carry games well past their totals. When those bench units consist of Pritchard or Aaron Nesmith or whomever the Celtics will rely on with Freedom’s and Grant Williams’ entries into the protocols completely sapping them of size depth, those surges will be harder to come by and second-unit buckets will be even rarer.

Prediction: Under 219.5 (-110)

Best bet

This could all change. That is not the way to offer conviction in a handicap, but it is a necessary disclaimer around the NBA right now.

But as long as both Middleton and Holiday are available for Milwaukee, the Bucks should give their home fans a present on Saturday.

Pick: Bucks -3.5 (-105)

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