While the season is young, this matchup between the Boston Celtics and Chicago Bulls is already looking like a battle between the NBA’s haves and have-nots.
The Celtics have roared out the gates this year, looking to build on a surprise Finals appearance. Meanwhile, Chicago is once again beset by injuries and is going to be in for a grueling game against one of the league’s elite defenses.
Our NBA picks and predictions for Celtics vs. Bulls dive into how this season is shaping up for both squads, and why Boston is a strong bet to come out on top.
Celtics vs Bulls best odds
Celtics vs Bulls picks and predictions
When a young team outperforms expectations like the Celtics did last season, there are always lingering questions through the offseason. For one, was it a fluke?
In the Celtics' case, everything about their statistical profile and roster suggests it was not, but there was a second question worth pondering, namely, will they be satisfied coming into next season or will they be hungrier than ever having come so close to the ultimate goal?
While the Atlanta Hawks of last season were a prime example of the former, the Boston Celtics — and Jayson Tatum in particular — have come out of the gates in 2022-23 like a house on fire.
Far from being satisfied, the Celtics are playing like a team that hasn’t done anything yet. They’ve won all three of their games, including two against rival Eastern Conference contenders in the Philadelphia 76ers and the Miami Heat. Malcolm Brogdon has fit hand in glove and the tertiary players like Derrick White and Grant Williams are all playing like they have something to prove.
That they’ve looked as good as they have without their foundational defensive player in Robert Williams III should terrify the rest of the NBA. The only thing that might be scarier is the MVP-level start that Jayson Tatum — traditionally a slow starter — is off to.
Tatum is averaging 34.7 points per game on an outrageous 70% true shooting. His struggles in the NBA Finals seem to have driven him to reach into a new well of untapped potential, one that could see him ascend from a Top-10 player to one of the league's five best.
The Bulls, on the other hand, are trending in the other direction. While a spirited opening night win against the Miami Heat raised temporary optimism, that optimism has now been tempered by a close loss to the Washington Wizards, followed by getting blown off the court by the Cleveland Cavaliers sans Darius Garland. And as was a point of concern prior to the season, injuries are once again threatening to define Chicago’s ceiling.
Lonzo Ball remains out and now Zach LaVine is once again missing games for knee injury management, and the plan appears to be that he will no longer play in back-to-backs going forward. It’s hard to see how the Bulls will even be competitive in games with both LaVine and Ball out of the lineup.
Help doesn’t seem to be on the way either, as the Bulls front office pinned all their hopes on former No.4 overall pick Patrick Williams to develop from a complimentary defensive forward into a Kawhi Leonard facsimile. That plan always sounded overly ambitious, but Williams' struggles to start this season (career lows in usage, points, and efficiency) threaten his place as even an NBA rotation player.
The one ray of light for the Bulls is that despite being pegged by many outside observers as a prime regression candidate, DeMar DeRozan has been able to build on his career-best work last year. He and Nikola Vucevic? remain a wonderful offensive fit, but against the Celtics, they’re practically drawing dead.
Boston demonstrated in the playoffs — particularly against the Brooklyn Nets — that its physicality can make even the greatest offensive talents wither. An already bruised Chicago team should prove no match for them.
My best bet: Celtics -4.5 (-110 at bet365)
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Celtics vs Bulls spread analysis
Last year's standings are not reflective of the true difference in quality between these two squads.
The Chicago Bulls, after a hot start, finished with 46 wins last year, but that number is quite deceiving. The Bulls were the 14th-ranked offense, the 22nd-ranked defense, and had a negative point differential of -0.2. That point differential has them worse than last year's 37-win New York Knicks, and only marginally better than the 34-win San Antonio Spurs.
The Celtics on the other hand, at 51 wins, finished with a +7.4 point differential. That means they drastically underperformed their point differential, even more so than the Bulls outperformed theirs. The difference in the standings last season was five wins, but in team quality, it was more like 18.
An 18-win difference puts the Celtics multiple tiers above even a healthy Bulls team, so a +4.5 line isn’t nearly enough to consider taking Chicago already banged up as they are.
Celtics vs Bulls Over/Under analysis
Much has been made — and rightly so — about how poorly Chicago performed against opposing playoff teams last season.
The Chicago Bulls went 2-20 against such teams in part because they struggle to score against good teams. DeRozan is an awe-inspiring offensive weapon at his peak, but the best teams can make the supporting cast beat you.
More often than not, the Bulls' backups have not proven up to the task. The Under is 5-0 in their last five games against teams with a winning record and that’s not a reflection of Chicago’s defensive prowess.
The question is whether or not the Celtics can simply pour it on enough to make the Over 222.5 a tenable bet. Their totals through three games suggest that might just be so. They’ve scored 126, 111, and 126 through three games.
The 111 came against the Miami Heat, a bonafide Top-5 defensive team. It should not surprise if the Celtics hang 120+ points on the Bulls in this matchup.
Celtics vs Bulls betting trend to know
The Under is 5-0 in Chicago's last five games vs. teams with a winning record. Find more NBA betting trends for Celtics vs. Bulls.
Celtics vs Bulls game info
| Location: | United Center, Chicago, IL |
| Date: | Monday, October 24, 2022 |
| Tip-off: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBCS-Boston, NBCS-Chicago |
