Celtics vs Rockets Picks and Predictions: Boston's Season Takes Off in Houston

The 0-2 Boston Celtics will head to Texas on Sunday for the first game in a back-to-back, as they face the 1-1 Houston Rockets. An overtime loss against the Knicks for Boston in its season-opener in the Garden was followed up by a blowout at the hands of the Raptors, while Houston got on the board against the Thunder.

That being said, which of these two teams will get their first win of the season against a real NBA team? Find out who we like with our free NBA betting picks and predictions for Celtics vs. Rockets on October 24.

Celtics vs Rockets odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

The line opened at Celtics -6 with some -5.5s available, depending on the book. The total hit the board at 225.5 with early action coming in on the Over. Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Celtics vs Rockets predictions

• Prediction: Celtics -6 (-105)
• Prediction: Under 225.5 (-105)
• Best bet: Al Horford Over 22.5 points + rebounds + assists (-110)

Predictions made on 10/23/2021 at 4:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Celtics vs Rockets game info

• Location: Toyota Center, Houston, TX
• Date: Sunday, October 24, 2021
• Tip-off: 7:00 p.m. ET
• TV: SNSW, NBCS-BOS

Celtics vs Rockets betting preview

Injuries

Celtics: No injuries to report.
Rockets: John Wall PG (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Rockets are 0-8 ATS in their last eight games following a win. Find more NBA betting trends for Celtics vs. Rockets.

Celtics vs Rockets picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Spread analysis

The Celtics being favored by just six points here tells you all you need to know about their discouraging start, as they face a Rockets team that was down 28 points to the Wolves before Minnesota emptied its bench in the fourth in the opening game. A win against pseudo-NBA team Oklahoma City aside, the Rockets are exactly who we expected: a very young team prioritizing development over winning. With Kevin Porter Jr. and Jalen Green operating in the backcourt as primary ball-handlers, there will be a lot of growing pains.

In that regard, it's laughable Boston is just a six-point favorite, even with its poor start in mind. The Celtics hung in with the Knicks in their first game, storming back after a poor third quarter to force overtime in what ended up as a four-point loss. That competitiveness was despite a 7-for-30 shooting night from Jayson Tatum, including 2 of 15 from 3-point range (and aided by Jaylen Brown going off for 46). 

Obviously, Boston's home opener Friday against the Raptors is playing into this spread a considerable amount. The Celtics were humiliated by Toronto in a 115-83 loss, but is the expectation really that the Celtics are going to shoot 39/32/73 as they did on Friday?

Boston is a flawed team but one with a genuine superstar in Tatum, a superb two-way wing in Brown, and 10 legitimate NBA contributors in its rotation. As a team, the Celtics shot 46.3 percent from the field last season and have since improved their shooting at the starting four (Al Horford), given great shooter Payton Pritchard a larger role, and added a career 43 percent shooter in Josh Richardson. Yet, through two games, Boston's shooting a hideous 40.2 percent. The Celtics' shooting splits will jump back up toward the norm in Houston, and Boston's talent should dominate its Rockets counterparts. 

The Celtics are clearly undergoing some early season growing pains but they are a team trying to win on a nightly basis and built to do so now. Houston isn't prioritizing winning, nor is it built to do so. Boston will cover on the first night of its back-to-back.  

Prediction: Celtics -6 (-105)

Over/Under analysis

The early returns on Boston's 2021-22 defense aren't exactly promising. The first game of the season saw the Celtics allow 116 points in regular to the Knicks, despite a mediocre 70 percent night from the line, as New York connected on 49 percent of its shots from the field.

Game two wasn't much better at all, with the Cs giving up 115 to the Raptors in a blowout. Most embarrassing of all, in a game that led Ime Udoka to declare his team got punked, was that Toronto put up 115 despite hitting just 29 percent of its 3-point attempts. Boston has too many good individual defenders to drag on like this for a full season but it's clear it will take time. 

Then there's Houston. The Rockets roll out three turnstiles on defense in their starting five, with Porter Jr. and Green completely unaware defenders at this stage of their careers, and Christian Wood continuing to be all-offense as one of the worst defensive bigs in the NBA. Houston was blown out of the gym by the Wolves' starters in the season opener and, despite the best intentions of Daniel Theis and Jae'Sean Tate, is likely to be against any competent offense it faces.  

It's too early in the season to rely on pace numbers to gauge how many possessions either team will have but we can evaluate the way in which the offenses have operated so far. And, so far, that would be not very well. The Celtics' lack of a proper point guard continues to haunt them, with Tatum still relatively green as an initiator, while Porter Jr. goes through an even more extreme version of those growing pains in Houston.  

Both teams' defenses are looking downright bad out of the gate but it's difficult to back the Over in a game featuring two teams who don't start natural point guards and don't get easy buckets as a result. Porter Jr. and Green will go back-and-forth trading possessions just as Tatum and Brown will on the other end. It won't be a pretty game to watch and it'll go Under the number.

Prediction: Under 225.5 (-105)

Best bet

It was a surprise to see a Raptors team in a rebuild blow the Celtics away on Friday night, but perhaps even more surprising was the play of Al Horford.

After an extremely washed-up tenure in Philadelphia, Horford was sent to NBA purgatory with the Thunder a year ago and promptly spent the second half of the season aiding Oklahoma City's tank — by not playing. Questions were raised about how much Horford had left after Boston reacquired him over the offseason and early season expectations were lowered further after testing positive for COVID-19 two weeks ago.

After sitting out game one, Horford made his season debut against the Raptors and played surprisingly well. Not only did Horford post a double-double, with 11 points and 11 boards, but he also blocked four shots — which is pretty amazing for a 35-year-old who's averaged 1.2 blocks per game in his career.

Horford added two dimes against Toronto, too, and that figure should be expected to jump up as his role as a facilitator in the post increases, with the Celtics using Marcus Smart as a point guard. (Horford never averaged fewer than four assists per game in his first stint in Boston.)

Locked into the starting lineup immediately, Horford should clear his points + rebounds + assists total against the Rockets with ease. He'll give the Celtics a steady 10+ points on solid efficiency, and dish out more dimes than he did against the Raps, but it's on the glass where he should feast the most. The Rockets were outrebounded by the Timberwolves, one of the smallest and worst-rebounding teams in the NBA, in their season opener.

Against a Celtics team that starts two bigs, they'll be completely swarmed and Horford will post a solid stat line all the way across.

Pick: Al Horford Over 22.5 points + rebounds + assists (-110)

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