NBA 2023 Christmas Day Games Ranked

The NBA’s Christmas Day games are nearly upon us, a full day of top-tier NBA odds featuring the best stars, most interesting matchups, and hallowed franchises.

However, not all of us have families who are willing to go along for the entirety of the 13-hour marathon schedule, sometimes you have to be a bit picky.

So, whether you simply want to gauge your hour-by-hour excitement appropriately or you’re thinking of strategically executing the always dangerous Christmas Day nap, Covers has put together a ranked list of the NBA’s Christmas Day slate in order of watchability.

The things I’m taking into account here include star power, franchise history, and intensity of rivalry. Of course, the best-played games are the most fun to watch, so above all else, I’m judging the quality of the matchup itself. Let's dive in.

Ranking the NBA Christmas Day schedule

5. Mavericks vs. Suns, 10:30 p.m. ET

Before the season, there might have been a strong case for this being the best or second-best game on Christmas Day, but the reality for this Dallas Mavericks and Phoenix Suns grudge match is not quite so appealing.

While there’s plenty of bad blood between these two teams, the Suns have been in a complete nosedive over the last few weeks. Not only has Bradley Beal basically not played this season, but the scaffolding of role players propped up around Devin Booker and Kevin Durant has all but collapsed under the weight of expectations.

The Suns are losers of six of their last eight, and the two wins were against a then-floundering Warriors team and the lowly Wizards.

Their offense is painful to watch even with two of the best scorers in the NBA in the rotation. Any time Booker or Durant has to run the team solo for a stretch, opposing teams put two on the ball and the rest of the Suns melt down.

There’s always a chance we could witness something special from Luka Doncic and no doubt he’ll feel extra motivated to put it on his rival Booker, but given how these teams are playing at the moment, the level of overall play is likely to be the worst of the day.

Per Cleaning the Glass, the Suns have underperformed the spread by 9.8 points per game over their last six, the worst mark in the NBA. With Luka back in the lineup, the Mavericks should be a strong bet to cover at the +4.5 line they’re getting at most books. 

4. Bucks vs. Knicks, 12:00 p.m. ET

There’s certainly an argument that this could be the lowest-ranked game on the board. The Milwaukee Bucks seem to have the New York Knicks' number, having won all three games so far this season in dominant fashion.

The Bucks clearly have the two best players in Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard, and their starting five has blown the Knicks off the court every game this season.

The Knicks also took a big hit when they lost Mitchell Robinson. The Bucks dominated the matchup on December 23 in part because the Knicks lost the battle on the glass. 

The other reason, however, was that for the third straight game against the Knicks this season, the Bucks shot 50% or better on threes while taking 30 or more. 

Milwaukee’s outrageous shooting in the In-Season Tournament quarterfinal masked a clever game plan by Tom Thibodeau.

Thibs identified that the Bucks’ weakness was their inability to get organized in transition defense, so New York went grab-and-go and ran the ball on every play, make or miss. It was working too, until the Bucks shooting eventually broke New York’s morale.

There’s also something to be said about the slow build of bad blood between these two teams. While nothing as loud as a “Gameballgate” has occurred, there has been a gradual increase in physicality and chippiness. Julius Randle seems to relish the matchup against Giannis, and Jalen Brunson has been a flamethrower for the last month.

If the Bucks have a normal shooting night, this game could be one of the better games on the Christmas Day slate, but there's certainly blowout potential as well. 

I’m thinking of the Under for this one. The total went Under 244.5 in their game on Saturday, and at some point, the Bucks will (probably) miss a three.

3. Warriors vs. Nuggets, 2:30 p.m. ET

This is a fascinating one. The Denver Nuggets are the defending champs, while the Golden State Warriors won the title before that.

Neither team has played their best basketball yet this season, but both are capable of hitting a high gear that few other teams in the NBA can match.

The Warriors flashed that ceiling when they beat the Celtics in overtime earlier this week, while everyone can remember what the Nuggets look like clicking on all cylinders from just last June.

Both teams have structural advantages they can attack. The Nuggets one is obvious, as Denver will tower over the Warriors even if Draymond Green makes an unexpected return from his indefinite suspension. Even with Trace Jackson-Davis entering the rotation, Nikola Jokic will abuse the Warriors' lack of size.

But Steph Curry attacking Jokic in pick-and-roll is as bad as Jokic ever looks on an NBA floor. Even at this point in his career, it’s hard to ever completely count out the Warriors because of Steph.

It’s because both teams have places to attack on offense that I’m leaning toward the Over, particularly if you can get it below 233.5.

2. 76ers vs. Heat, 8:00 p.m. ET

This one has the juice. The Miami Heat vs. Philadelphia 76ers rivalry might not be top of mind in terms of historical relevance, but the very fact that Jimmy Butler holds a personal grudge against the Sixers more than makes up for it.

Butler crying “Tobias Harris over me?” as he triumphantly walked into the tunnel after eliminating the 76ers in the 2022 playoffs is one of the more enduring moments in sports trash talk over the last few years.

Butler, like Michael Jordan before him, seems to raise his game in direct proportion to the petty energy he can muster to support it. And both his game and his pettiness can be raised to Hall of Fame levels when the need arises.

The Heat are also counted out of every NBA contender conversation despite making the NBA Finals in two out of the last four seasons, a statement win over the 76ers would be one way to change that.

Philadelphia of course has Joel Embiid, the reigning MVP, and the clear frontrunner per the MVP odds as well as the ESPN unofficial straw poll. He's taken his game to another level again this year and recently eviscerated the Timberwolves, owners of the league’s best defense.

Bam Adebayo happens to be one of the NBA’s three best defenders, who is also in the middle of one of his most impactful seasons.

Tyrese Maxey is the leader for Most Improved Player, and the Heat have long been the bane of smaller guards with their physical play. This one has the right mix of personal enmity, recent playoff history, and intriguing matchups to take it to the number two spot.

Most sportsbooks have this as a virtual tossup, with the 76ers getting as little as -1.5 points as road favorites.

While I respect the level the Heat can hit at their ceiling, the 76ers have been the best team in terms of outperforming the spread on a per-point basis all year long. I’m leaning toward a Philadelphia cover.

1. Celtics vs. Lakers, 5:00 p.m. ET

The Boston Celtics-Los Angeles Lakers matchup on Christmas Day sometimes feels obligatory, but this year's matchup between the NBA’s glamor franchises is anything but.

Not only are the Celtics the team to beat in the Eastern Conference, but they’re also favorites to win the title at almost every sportsbook.

The Celtics are fresh off an utterly dominant performance against the Clippers, and Jaylen Brown is in arguably the best stretch of his career. Jayson Tatum is going to be an MVP candidate for the seemingly the next 10 years, and Boston is overloaded with quality perimeter players as well.

The Lakers are In-Season Tournament Champions and owners of the seventh-best defense in the NBA. Anthony Davis has shown flashes of Top-5 overall play this season, and what he did to the Warriors in last year’s playoffs should strike fear into the heart of any team that thinks they can simply win a game from the perimeter. 

Then there’s the King, LeBron James himself, who is playing his best basketball in four or five seasons. Nobody cares more about the NBA and his place in it than LeBron, and winning a Christmas Day rivalry game against the Celtics carries the weight of history.

This matchup was looking a bit shaky when the Lakers dropped recent games against the Knicks and Bulls, but a blowout win against SGA and the Thunder on Saturday proves L.A. still has its fastball. When LeBron and AD play at that level, the Lakers can beat anybody.

The total for this one is all over the map depending on the sportsbooks, but I’m looking at the Under if I can get it anywhere around 237.

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