The Oklahoma City Thunder have won three straight, and the Milwaukee Bucks have won two in a row, but something’s got to give when MVP favorite Shai Gilgeous-Alexander takes on Giannis Antetokounmpo.
My Thunder vs Bucks predictions expect SGA to continue his dominance as a scorer. Read my NBA picks for March 16 to find out more.
Thunder vs Bucks prediction
My best bet: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 34.5 points (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
This is a monster scoring line, but Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is more than capable of clearing it.
The NBA’s leading scorer averages 33 points per game, and a slightly above-average performance will get him to 35. Gilgeous-Alexander gets up for meaningful matchups like this one, and I expect him to do that tonight against Giannis & Co.
Pre All-Star break, SGA averaged 32.5 points, but he’s turned it up to another level post break, dropping 35.4 per tilt. SGA hit the Over on this line in just 33.3 percent of his 54 games played before the break. He’s reached that mark in 54.5% of games played since.
SGA scored 34 in his last matchup with the Milwaukee Bucks on February 3, and Milwaukee offers a premier matchup. The Bucks have allowed the most points per game to opposing PGs this season at 26.2. Milwaukee’s defense has been even more generous across the last seven games, allowing 28.2 to the position.
Gilgeous-Alexander has been a more prolific scorer at home than on the road, but he’s hit the Over in two of his last three on the road, with the 34-point game against Boston the exception. He’s scored at least 31 in six of his last seven away from Paycom Center and averaged 35.6 in those contests.
The MVP favorite continues to strengthen his case down the home stretch, and he’s put up some monster numbers against fellow contenders such as the Celtics, Nuggets, Grizzlies, Rockets and Timberwolves. Don’t be surprised to see another.
Thunder vs Bucks same-game parlay
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 34.5 points
Over 231.5
Thunder -4
The Thunder and Bucks have each hit the Over in six of their last 10 games overall. Both teams rank in the Top 15 in offensive rating and points per game on the season, and both have been even better across their last 10.
In that span, the Thunder have averaged an NBA-best 125.9 points, and the Bucks rank 10th at 118.9. These offenses are too potent to bet the Under here despite it hitting in the first two matchups of the season.
The Bucks have covered in three of the last five at home, but the Thunder have covered in five straight on the road. Milwaukee is just 9-10-1 as the underdog and 3-3 as the home dog.
Oklahoma City is 38-23-4 as the favorite and 17-11-2 as the road favorite.
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Thunder vs Bucks odds
Thunder vs Bucks live odds
Thunder vs Bucks opening odds
- Spread: Oklahoma City -4 | Milwaukee +4
- Moneyline: Oklahoma City -170 | Milwaukee +145
- Over/Under: Over 231.5 | Under 231.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
Thunder vs Bucks spread and Over/Under analysis
- Oklahoma City has covered in five straight road games.
- Milwaukee is 33-32-2 ATS this season.
- The Thunder are 36-30-2 to the Over.
- The Bucks are 34-33 to the Over.
Thunder vs Bucks trend
The Oklahoma City Thunder have covered the Spread in 50 of their last 82 games (+19.20 Units / 21% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Thunder vs. Bucks.
How to watch Thunder vs Bucks
| Location | Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee, Wisconsin |
| Date | Sunday, 3-16-2025 |
| Tip-off | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Thunder vs Bucks latest injuries
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