The Golden State Warriors suffered the worst of both worlds on Sunday, going all-out for a win and only suffering a loss. Meanwhile, the Memphis Grizzlies prepared for the gauntlet ahead of them by resting up.
Sometimes, focusing on that difference would be too obvious, but with Golden State increasingly beat up, playing 53 minutes on Sunday may prove costly tonight.
My Grizzlies vs. Warriors predictions and NBA picks will take advantage of that edge early in the Play-In Tournament with tip at 10 p.m. ET on Tuesday, April 15.
Who will win Grizzlies vs Warriors?
The Golden State Warriors may have fallen in a must-win game at home on Sunday, but the Clippers have arguably been the best team in the NBA in the last month-plus. The same cannot be said of the Memphis Grizzlies, not at all.
In the last month of the season, the Grizzlies’ net rating sat at No. 17 in the NBA, only the first two weeks or so of that coming before head coach Taylor Jenkins’s firing. Note: Memphis is at No. 17 in net rating in the nine games since Jenkins’s firing, too. In the last month of the season, the Warriors’ net rating sat at No. 5, a full six points per 100 possessions better than their Tuesday opponent’s.
Golden State’s Sunday was discouraging, but do not let it scare you all the way off the Warriors. Memphis has been too broken for too long.
Grizzlies vs Warriors prediction
My best bet: Grizzlies first-quarter moneyline (+140 at bet365)
My analysis
Memphis consciously chose not to chase a pipe dream on Sunday, instead resting its starters in what turned out to be a meaningless game against Dallas. In a very real way, the Grizzlies have three full days off before this chance at avoiding the Thunder.
Meanwhile, Golden State was locked in a brutal overtime loss to the Clippers. Jimmy Butler played 48 full minutes. Brandin Podziemski cracked 43. Both Draymond Green and Steph Curry cleared 38 minutes.
On a two-day turnaround, that wear should cost the Warriors, especially since they have been in must-win mode for a full week now, playing four games in six days culminating with that loss on Sunday. This Play-In stressor will be their fifth game in eight days, all with this nightmare in mind. Golden State has played eight games already in April.
That is true for everyone at this point in the season, but Memphis countered the fatigue on Sunday. Not to mention, fatigue is more of a worry for a team as old as Golden State is. Oh, and as banged up as Golden State is.
Steph Curry wore a plaster splint on Sunday to protect a new thumb injury on his shooting hand. Jimmy Butler appeared to take a blow to his thigh that limited him in overtime. Yes, they were both largely stellar, but Curry had eight turnovers and was -16 in his 38 minutes, while Butler found just one rebound.
Memphis needs to take advantage of its rest and health edges as early as possible on Tuesday. Finding a first-quarter moneyline at such a plus-money price is a bit of a surprise. The Grizzlies should be underdogs on Tuesday; they are the scuffling team going against one of the most veteran teams in the NBA.
However, the Grizzlies have an edge early on, and at plus-money, there's value in leaning on that edge.
Grizzlies vs Warriors same-game parlay
Grizzlies first-quarter moneyline
Warriors moneyline
Jimmy Butler Under 6.5 rebounds
The allure of taking the Warriors moneyline is how quickly it escalates this SGP payout because of the counterintuitive nature of pairing it with the Grizzlies' first-quarter moneyline. Just those two legs pay at +320.
Adding doubt to Jimmy Butler’s rebounding is both an acknowledgement of who he is generally and a worry about his sore thigh. If Butler is at all less aggressive, that will show on the boards, just as it did on Sunday.
Grabbing just one rebound was a bad look for the supposed gritty veteran, part of how he has not cleared this prop in his last nine games.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Grizzlies vs Warriors odds
Grizzlies vs Warriors live odds
Grizzlies vs Warriors opening odds
- Spread: Memphis +7 | Golden State -7
- Moneyline: Memphis +240 | Golden State -300
- Over/Under: Over 228.5 | Under 228.5
Odds courtesy of bet365.
Grizzlies vs Warriors spread and Over/Under analysis
- Memphis opened as a hefty 7-point underdog on Monday afternoon, most sportsbooks holding off on opening this line for a day after Sunday’s results, worried Curry’s or Butler’s injury may prove a concern.
- Golden State has not given any indication that either will be limited.
- Opening the total at 228.5 may sound low, but realize that seven of the eight opening Play-In games have gone Under their totals in the West in the four years of the Play-In Tournament’s existence.
Grizzlies vs Warriors trend
As recently as March 24, Memphis was in position to host a first-round series. Since then, the Grizlies have gone 4-6 outright. At that point, Golden State was a spot higher in the standings, slipping to No. 7 despite going 7-3 outright in the closing stretch. Find more NBA betting trends for Grizzlies vs. Warriors.
How to watch Grizzlies vs Warriors
| Location | Chase Center, San Francisco, CA |
| Date | Tuesday, 4-15-2025 |
| Tip-off | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | TNT |
Grizzlies vs Warriors latest injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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