Clippers vs Celtics Picks and Predictions: Kawhi Leonard Assists a No-Brainer at Plus Money

The story of the modern NBA turns on the rise of the superstar wing, and that rise will be on full display as the Los Angeles Clippers and the Boston Celtics face off in TD Garden tonight.

The league-leading Celtics will try to make it four in a row at home before they head out on a west coast road trip, but they’re up for a stiff challenge against a fully healthy Clippers squad helmed by Kawhi Leonard.

NBA odds have the C's as a 6-point favorite, but my free NBA picks and predictions for Clippers vs. Celtics zero in on the Claw himself — and why he’s likely to excel in a playmaking role tonight.

Clippers vs Celtics best odds

Clippers vs Celtics picks and predictions

The NBA season is so long and grueling, it can be easy to get lost in the minutiae. Particularly when thinking about a team like the Los Angeles Clippers, who have so many rotation players potentially worthy of minutes, so many potential lineup combinations, and as yet unanswered philosophical questions concerning style of play.

But when you step back for a minute, you remember that there is one question and one question only that truly matters for Los Angeles: Come playoff time, can Kawhi Leonard still play at the level of a Top-5 player?

The early returns this season made me skeptical, as Kawhi took injury management to new, troubling levels. He seemed to never play enough to catch a rhythm, let alone build on-court chemistry with his Clippers teammates.

Lately, however, we’ve seen flashes of that old Kawhi. The undeniable isolation scorer, the physical presence with no peer, and the guy who puts fear in the hearts of every NBA defense. 

Opposing teams have seen it as well. This is why Kawhi is facing an increasing number of traps and hard hedges that he didn’t warrant earlier in the season. In LA’s previous game against the Raptors, Toronto head coach Nick Nurse essentially had put two on the ball against Kawhi any time he touched the rock.

While that succeeded in limiting Leonard to 15 points, Kawhi racked up a season-high eight assists. The days when Kawhi would wilt under that kind of ball pressure, or more commonly, force a difficult contested shot are long gone. He’s become an incredibly canny passer, and teammates like Terance Mann and Luke Kennard have learned to play off his gravity to devastating effect.

Kawhi is averaging 3.8 assists on the season, but that’s been rising recently as his minutes have climbed and opposing defenses are forcing him into a playmaking role. Kawhi’s 21.9% assist percentage is in the 94th percentile among all forwards, and his .80 assist-to-usage rate this season would be a career best. He also never turns the ball over, ensuring that opposing ball pressure almost always turns into something positive.

The Boston Celtics have the league's second-best overall defense this season in large part because they funnel opponents away from the rim and the 3-point line and into the midrange. But against Kawhi that won’t be sufficient, as he’s more than happy to take those shots. The Celtics will have to play Kawhi similarly to the Raptors or risk him tearing a hole right through the middle of their defensive game plan.

Kawhi has had four or more assists in five of his last seven games, including six against Boston on December 12. Getting this at plus money makes it my favorite bet on the board.

My best bet: Kawhi Leonard Over 3.5 assists (+105)

Clippers vs Celtics spread analysis

This has the potential to be one of the best games of the year, with both the Clippers and Celtics coming into Thursday night’s game fully healthy. The Clippers have found a winning formula with Kawhi Leonard and Paul George both available, a scenario in which LA is 9-3 this season — with one of those losses coming in a competitive game against a 76ers team that delivered arguably its best performance of the season.

The Clippers success has seen them go 8-2 ATS in their last 10, including covering in four of their last five on the road. LA controlled its previous game against the Raptors from the opening tip and seemed entirely unbothered by Toronto's length.

Whether you like the Clippers at +6.5 is largely down to how much you believe in the Celtics' recent return to form on offense. They’re still down in the Bottom 10 over the last two weeks, but they dropped 126 on the Rockets and 139 on the Bucks in their last two outings.

I’m not terribly convinced by those results: Their process hasn’t improved that much since their serious struggles early in December and the switch-heavy style of the Clippers will be the ultimate test of their offensive flow.

The spread differential between these two teams is also substantial. Per Cleaning the Glass, the Clippers are outperforming the spread by 4.1 points over the past two weeks, while Boston is underperforming by 3 points. I like Los Angeles to cover.

Clippers vs Celtics Over/Under analysis

Between Boston and LA, Thursday’s game features four of the best wings in the NBA in George, Leonard, Jayson Tatum, and Jaylen Brown. The quality of wing offense and defense for both teams ensures that there will be a ton of switching and, as a result, a decent amount of isolation basketball.

Generally speaking, isolation basketball is less efficient than other forms, in part because it’s never going to result in a wide-open three. And because their four best players overlap in position and skillset, these teams are similar in a few respects. I’d be inclined to think that will make it easier for them to guard one another, as they face a facsimile whenever they practice.

But the trends for this 227.5-point total overwhelmingly favor the Over, which has cashed in LA’s last four games and has gone 11-1 in its previous 12 road contests. Plus, the Celtics have a tendency to get into shootouts in their own barn as well — the Over is 12-4 in Boston's last 16 home games, spanning both their successful start to the year as well as their recent struggles.

Clippers vs Celtics betting trend to know

The Clippers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall. Find more NBA betting trends for Clippers vs. Celtics.

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