The NBA betting lineup for Christmas Day is, as usual, a blockbuster slate, including a nightcap with the Los Angeles Clippers getting a visit from the Ghost of Second Rounds Past. The Clippers will get their first rematch with the Denver Nuggets, who infamously came back from a 3-1 deficit to oust L.A. from the bubble playoffs.
After a warm-up game for both teams to kick the season off, NBA odds have this matchup marked as a virtual pick 'em: the Clippers were booked as slim -1 favorites (the line has since moved to -2.5), with the total opening at 223.
Let's dive into our free Clippers vs. Nuggets picks and predictions for Friday, December 25, tipping off at 10:30 p.m. ET.
Los Angeles Clippers at Denver Nuggets Betting Preview
Key Injuries
Clippers: No injuries to report.
Nuggets: JaMychal Green F (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.
Betting Trend to Know
Under is 6-1-2 in Clippers' last nine games overall. Find more NBA betting trends for Clippers vs. Nuggets.
Against the Spread (ATS) Pick
Christmas won't be much of a holiday for the Clippers, whose gift is a "too soon" visceral reminder of last season's massive playoff collapse.
While the wound might be fresh, we can assume a more cohesive effort from L.A. Kawhi Leonard is as consistent a superstar as exists. The playoffs are over, so Paul George is good again. Whatever chemistry issues existed with Doc Rivers (this couldn't have helped) and Montrezl Harrell are gone.
Denver, meanwhile, lost several rotation players and will have to shuffle in new bodies. The absences of now-departed Torrey Craig and Jerami Grant are key here, forcing Michael Porter Jr. - a very suspect defender - to spend more time struggling on Leonard or George.
There's also the case of Jamal Murray. While the explosive PG has likely made some kind of leap, expecting him to remain the same player he was in the bubble is a bit optimistic. If Murray can prove me wrong and keep averaging 26.5 points on better than 50% from the field, I'm all for it, but it seems unsustainable.
Nikola Jokic's conditioning is normally an early-season issue for Denver. Their franchise center has shown up to numerous training camps looking tangibly lethargic, and his first full month of the season has been his lowest-scoring every year since he was a rookie. We can possibly park those concerns after he dropped a 29-point triple-double on Sacramento in the season opener, but Jokic isn't entirely in the clear.
Don't read too much either way into the Clippers' inconsistent effort on opening night or the Nugs needing OT to put away the Kings. Until Denver yields more upside, the Clips are still the better team on paper, and match up better than last season in several spots.
Expect L.A. to come out motivated for this one - even in a mile-high road game - after having most of the sports world mock them for the past three months. A statement win would be a great way to quiet the haters.
PREDICTION: Clippers -1 (-110)
Over/Under Pick
Both these teams are finely-tuned scoring machines that ranked inside the Top 4 in offensive rating last season. Both have a trio of players capable of dropping 20-plus on any given night. And both have competent supporting casts that can buoy second-unit scoring. But that doesn't make the Over 223 an auto-bet.
We may have forgotten after watching Jokic carve them up like a freshly-roasted Butterball, but the Clippers are a pretty damn good defensive team. They ranked fourth in D-rating last season, allowed the fifth-fewest points per 100 possessions, and had the third-stingiest opponent field goal percentage.
They also swapped Harrell - who Jokic routinely abused in the bubble - for Serge Ibaka as their de-facto center. While he's lost a couple of steps since his league-block-leading days, Ibaka's still a stout defender and a vast upgrade over Harrell on D.
Meanwhile, neither of these squads are winning any track meets. The Clips barely averaged above the NBA's median possessions in 2019-20, while the Nugs plodded along at the league's second-slowest pace.
We can also draw insight from the bubble, where, despite a general scoring boom, these two rivals averaged 206.7 points over their playoff joust, with no single game cracking the 223 plateau. Sure, that's the playoffs, where defense reigns and pace usually grinds, but we can probably expect some minor early-season rust in this game while players adjust to new teammates and navigate the unprecedentedly-short offseason.
It's no coincidence that Denver averaged 109.0 points in wins and just 96.3 in losses in that second-round series. The Clippers are more comfortable flexing on D than winning a shootout. Count on them to hold that line.
PREDICTION: Under 223 (-110)
Player Prop Pick
As mentioned above, Murray caught fire in the NBA bubble like few others. His output - especially across a playoff sample - seemed too hot to maintain for a streaky player, and despite his obvious talent, some regression was likely. It's tough to gauge just how much of Murray's postseason play was the result of the bubble's unprecedented climate, with little else to focus on and a very "basketball camp"-type atmosphere.
One game is one game, but Murray had an absolutely hideous opener, netting nine points on 1-of-9 shooting against a Sacramento squad that ranked 21st in D-rating last year. Things won't get any easier against the Clippers, whose perimeter defenders are infinitely better than the Kings', and have a score to settle with the guy who dropped a 40-burger to eliminate them the last time they met.
This is Murray's absolute floor - it's a safe bet he gets it back on track soon. But while he's down here, don't expect L.A.'s D to let him up.
PICK: Jamal Murray Under 20.5 points (-108)
Clippers vs Nuggets Betting Card
- Clippers -1 (-110)
- Under 223 (-110)
- Jamal Murray Under 20.5 points (-108)
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