2023 NBA Draft Prop Picks and Predictions: Victor's a Certainty, Lottery Questions Remain

The 2023 NBA Draft has all the drama of the latest Transformers film. 

As sure as Optimus Prime & Co. are going to follow the classic action beats as they kick that alien robot ass, the San Antonio Spurs will be selecting Victor Wembanyama as the No. 1 overall pick Thursday night.

The NBA Draft odds are so sure Wembanyama will be in San Antonio, his price to go first overall to the Spurs is in the -20,000 range — a 99.5% implied probability that’s asking you to risk $20K to win $100.

But beyond the No. 1 pick, there is some uncertainty. And when you throw the NBA Draft betting odds into the mix, you’ve got yourself an entertaining evening on par with giant shape-shifting robots punching each other in the face. 

I look at the prop markets and give my best NBA Draft free betting picks for June 22. Roll out!

NBA Draft picks and predictions

Draft Position: Over/Under odds

Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of June 22, 2023.

Coulibaly is the Robin to Wembanyama’s Batman, also coming out of French club Metropolitans 92. So, NBA scouts — meaning to or not — have seen his tape. 

The 6-foot-8 wing can scratch his knee standing up straight with a 7-foot-2 wingspan. He makes an impact on both ends of the floor, with length, smarts, and hustle on defense and aggressive athleticism getting to the paint on offense. 

He’s only 18 years old and sashimi-levels of raw, but there’s a lot of pre-draft hype building around Coulibaly. Mock drafts have him pegged between Utah at No. 9 and Atlanta at No. 15, with the Jazz reportedly visiting him in France twice this spring. 

And should Coulibaly still be there at pick No. 10, Dallas would swoon over his skill set and jump at the chance to complement the offensive fireworks of Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving with a defensive-minded wing. You can get Coulibaly to go Top 10 at +220 odds at DraftKings.

While the draft position market is parked at a consensus total of 11.5 for Coulibaly, the price varies from book to book. FanDuel and DraftKings are priced at -132 and -140, respectively, on the Under and some offshores are as far as -150 now. However, you can get the Under 11.5 at -110 at bet365 as of Monday afternoon.

Pick: Bilal Coulibaly draft position Under 11.5 (-110 at bet365)

First to be drafted: Anthony Black (-200) or Taylor Hendricks (+150)?

There are enough mock drafts out there that have Hendricks going ahead of Black to make us pay attention to this head-to-head prop.

Both men have position totals of 8.5 O/U with Black’s Under set at a more expensive -270 to Hendricks’ -150 juice — giving him a 73% shot of being picked eighth or earlier compared to a 60% shot for Hendricks. 

But according to The Athletic, Hendricks put on such a strong workout for Detroit that he’s among names like Whitmore, Walker, and the Thompson twins to be selected No. 5 overall (+1,700 if it happens).

The Central Florida star is a Swiss Army knife at 6-foot-8 with a stringy 7-foot-2 wingspan, making him a classic “3-D” talent. He’s an influence on both ends as a strong perimeter shooter and his versatility on defense makes him a valuable piece in the switch-heavy strategies of today’s NBA.

Black, on the other hand, is a true point guard and a fantastic addition, but he doesn’t have the high selection ceiling like Hendricks as he’s not on the shortlist for the Pistons. Given his position prop projections, that would leave Orlando at No. 6, Indiana at No. 7, and Washington at No. 8.

The Magic already have Markelle Fultz at the point and are rumored to be more interested in shooters in this draft. The Pacers have their point guard in Tyrese Haliburton and got a good look at Hendricks’ more apt fit during workouts. That leads us to the Wizards, who — as it would be — have a vacancy in their backcourt after trading Bradley Beal to Phoenix and working out Black in pre-draft prep.

Should Detroit pass on Hendricks at No. 5, many mocks have him landing in Indiana at pick No. 7 and Black dropping to Washington at No. 8. At plus money, Hendricks is worthy of a wager in this head-to-head prop. 

Pick: Taylor Hendricks (+150 at bet365)

Gregory Jackson Draft Position: 26.5 Over/Under

While the earlier picks may have the sex appeal, the deeper selections hold value.

Case in point: South Carolina guard Gregory “G.G.” Jackson.

Jackson headed to Columbia as one of the top recruits in the land after reclassifying and skipping his senior year of high school. He put together a solid freshman year for the Gamecocks, averaging 15 points and six rebounds per game, then abruptly declared for the pros.

The 18-year-old is the youngest eligible player in the draft after fast-forwarding his high school and college careers. That inexperience and lack of maturity, combined with some lackluster efforts on the court, have many NBA mock drafts pushing Jackson out of the first round.

His draft position odds have the total at 26.5 with the Over priced at -160. That’s a pretty good buy considering he’s pegged by many top mocks to land somewhere between pick No. 33 and No. 41 — which is more than enough cushion for anyone laying the -160 on the Over 26.5.

The earliest I’ve seen him projected at was No. 25, going to Memphis. However, given the Ja Morant drama and the team parting ways with prickish Dillon Brooks, “maturity” matters to the Grizzlies. You’re not going to find that in a guy who won’t be able to drink until his third season in the pros.

Pick: Over 26.5 (-160 at bet365)

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