And so at long last, we’ve reached the NBA Finals. After a grueling gauntlet including takedowns of last year's champions and a seven-game war with Miami, the Boston Celtics have reached the Finals for the first time since 2010.
The Golden State Warriors — the betting favorites in the latest NBA Championship odds — will be their foil from the West, having finished off Luka Doncic and the upstart Dallas Mavericks in five games.
Our NBA Finals series preview for Warriors vs. Celtics has the series price, what X-factors might define this matchup, and a free series prop pick below.
The Celtics' road to the NBA Finals
This Celtics season is a testament to perseverance, internal development, and outstanding coaching. Boston was just 25-25 on January 28th before transforming into the most dominant team in the Eastern Conference. On paper, there might not have been a more difficult path to Finals than the one Boston just tread.
Though they vanquished them in four games, many predicted they would be overwhelmed by the Brooklyn Nets. And their path only got more precarious after taking down Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving.
They fell into a 3-2 hole to the defending champion Milwaukee Bucks only to win two in a row to earn a berth in the Eastern Conference Finals. They seemed to have things under control against a wounded Miami squad, but then lost a close-out attempt in Game 6 and had to go on the road to finish off Jimmy Butler, who proved as relentless as a Terminator.
It was dicey there for a minute, but whenever it looked like this Celtics squad might come up short, they found a way to gut out the big games. Now, their biggest test yet stands before them on the biggest stage, with a chance for banner No. 18 on the line.
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The Warriors' road to the NBA Finals
While Golden State’s road in these playoffs has not been as tumultuous as Boston's, this run is still the stuff of storybooks. After twin catastrophic injuries to Kevin Durant and Klay Thompson in the 2019 Finals against the Toronto Raptors, it was an open question of whether Steph Curry and this core would ever sniff the Finals again.
Two years in the wilderness followed, but the brilliance of Curry and Draymond Green was buoyed by the emergence of Jordan Poole and Andrew Wiggins — finally — finding his perfect role.
They did more than hold down the fort until Klay Thompson returned after nearly 1,000 days away from basketball, but they faced growing pains while blending the old team with the new. And because of injuries to Draymond and Curry, the Warriors faced the prospect of beginning the playoffs with a version of this team entirely untested together.
But they found their groove quickly, triumphed in five games over the Nuggets, won a hard-fought six-game series against the Grizzlies, and overwhelmed the Mavericks in five games.
And so here the Warriors are, with a chance to put another stamp on the dynasty most had thought dead.
NBA Finals X-factors
Celtics X-factor: Health
The series between the Miami Heat and the Boston Celtics was as much about attrition as it was about skill. While Boston physically outlasted Miami, the Celtics didn’t get through unscathed, and health will be the major X-factor that determines their ability to compete at Golden State's level.
It is the two best defensive players on the Celtics that are most concerning. Marcus Smart has been taking a beating during the playoffs, missing a game against the Bucks and two games against Miami with various foot ailments. The Celtics were able to have Derrick White step in, and he did an admirable job, but the Warriors are best in class when it comes to forcing role players into undesirable situations, and White’s shaky confidence as a shooter could prove disastrous if Smart misses time.
Robert Williams III has also been in and out of the lineup ever since his return from meniscus surgery. His injuries are even more concerning than Smart's, and he looked like an unplayable shell of himself in Game 7 against Miami. Williams’ help defense is what transformed Boston into a title contender mid-season, and he’ll be sorely needed against Golden State.
Warriors X-factor: Big or small?
The Warriors are not used to making trade-offs, but they’ve been forced to throughout this playoff run. Unlike the hallowed Death Lineup days, they haven’t been able to field groups that succeed broadly as both offensive and defensive units.
This is partly why losing Otto Porter Jr. hurts. As a two-way power forward who shoots and defends, Porter gave the Warriors a ton of flexibility.
Now, they either lean defense and play Draymond and Looney together (which lets them win on the boards and deny the paint) or they lean on guard-heavy offensive lineups with plenty of Jordan Poole.
Poole juices their offense to absurd degrees, but his defensive limitations were a key reason why the Warriors played so much zone against Dallas.
The Warriors need to thread an impossible needle: when and how they play small or big is the biggest strategic question they face against Boston.
NBA Finals prop pick
First, the fundamentals. Boston leads the playoffs with a +7.4 point differential on the back of their No. 2-ranked defense. The Warriors are second in point differential at +5.3 while ranking as the top overall offense. That’s a significant margin, particularly for the underdog by the sportsbooks, and makes Boston a tempting choice.
As has been the case throughout the playoffs, the Celtics' overwhelming size — both on the interior and the perimeter — is their biggest advantage. Even if Golden State can get away with playing Looney and Green together, the Celtics will tower over the Warriors on the perimeter with Tatum and Brown. Wiggins proved up to the task against Luka Doncic, but this pair will provide a different kind of test.
But the Celtics have not played against a team like the Warriors in the playoffs either. The drop defense the Celtics deployed to frustrate Miami will have no place against Golden State, and the Warriors’ almost psychic connection between Klay, Steph, and Dray makes switching a less promising prospect than it might seem.
Before Miami pushed Boston to seven games, I was leaning toward taking the Celtics in this series. However, a couple of things have now pushed me to take the Warriors. One is the huge difference in rest advantage that makes the Warriors much heavier favorites in Game 1 than their opening line of -3 suggests. Both Smart and Williams needed those extra non-travel days to rehab lingering injuries and now they won't get that bonus rest.
If the Warriors win Game 1 and continue their NBA record 26 series streak of winning at least one road game, both of which I expect them to do, the math gets awfully difficult for Boston. Golden State is also 9-0 at Chase Center in these playoffs, having outscored opponents by 121 points at home. Boston’s home court has not been nearly as formidable by comparison.
The Celtics have not had to defend an offense that is both this talented and cohesive at any point in the playoffs, and an early series lead for the Warriors will ultimately be too much to overcome.
Pick: Warriors in 6 (+550 DraftKings)
