The Milwaukee Bucks host the Phoenix Suns in Game 4 of the NBA Finals on Wednesday night. The Bucks will try to knot up this best-of-seven series at two games apiece after pulling away for a 120-100 victory as 4.5-point favorites on Sunday.
In a series that has so far seen the home team always favored by at least four points — and easily covering in each contest — NBA Finals odds have the Bucks as 4-point favorites for Wednesday's showdown.
Here are our best free Suns vs. Bucks picks and predictions for Game 4 of the NBA Finals on July 14, with tipoff at 9 p.m. ET.
Suns vs Bucks game info
• Location: Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee, WI
• Date: Wednesday, July 14, 2021
• Time: 9:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ABC
Suns vs Bucks odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
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NBA sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonLate Sunday night, following a Game 3 victory to climb into this series, Milwaukee opened a 3.5-point Game 4 favorite at William Hill US. The Bucks moved to -4 Monday morning, then to -4.5 this morning, where the line remains at 5 p.m. ET, four hours before tipoff. Ticket count and money are in the 2/1 range on the Bucks. However, there's a $30,000 Suns +4.5 bet and a $100,000 Suns moneyline +160 wager, and Will US director of trading Nick Bogdanovich expects sizable handle on this pivotal game. "I hope it’ll be our biggest handle of the Finals so far, but the determining factor will be how many big bets we get," Bogdanovich said. "The handle will still be strong regardless, though. It’s very possible this will be the highest-bet game in terms of tickets, too." The total rose from 220 to 221, with 72 percent of tickets/90 percent of cash on the Over. "The total is a bigger decision for us right now,” Bogdanovich said. "That is probably going to change by the time this game tips off, but the Over is getting pounded pretty good. These two teams both like to get up and down the floor, and I guess they think that pace will lead to a lot of points."
Check out the full line movement for this gameSuns vs Bucks series odds
Suns: -175
Bucks: +180
Suns vs Bucks betting preview
Injuries
Suns: Dario Saric F (Out).
Bucks: Donte DiVincenzo SG (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Over is 16-4-2 in Bucks last 22 games against a team with a winning straight up record. Find more NBA betting trends for Suns vs. Bucks.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
After the first two games of this series, it looked like the Phoenix Suns were going to run away with the 2021 NBA Championship, but the Bucks showed on Sunday just how dangerous they can be at home.
Giannis Antetokounmpo finished with over 40 points for the second game in a row (and even went 13 of 17 at the charity stripe!) as Milwaukee finished the first half with a dominant 30-9 run and then ended the third quarter with 16 unanswered points.
Jae Crowder was sizzling from deep but he was the only Suns player with a hot hand — the rest of the team combined to go a pathetic 3 for 24 from long range. Phoenix also committed six more personal fouls and five more turnovers than Milwaukee while being outrebounded 47-36.
It's hard to see Phoenix going bone dry from deep like they did on Sunday, or the Bucks again putting up an outstanding 3.11 assist-to-turnover ratio considering that their assist/TO for the entire season is 1.83.
While the Bucks are the better rebounding team, that problem was exacerbated for Phoenix when center Deandre Ayton got into foul trouble and logged just 24 minutes after averaging 39.8 minutes per game in his previous five contests.
Game 3 was the perfect storm of every Milwaukee player being on and Phoenix shooting guard Devin Booker being very off. Booker entered the contest averaging 27.2 ppg during the postseason and came off a terrific performance where he went 7 of 12 from deep... but scored just 10 points on 3-for-14 shooting from the field (1 of 7 from three-point range).
This Phoenix team doesn't lose very much and when it does taste defeat, it usually comes back with a vengeance. In their last 18 games following a straight-up loss, the Suns are 14-4 ATS and 15-3 SU. Expect a bounce-back performance from Booker & Co. and back them on the spread.
PREDICTION: Phoenix +4 (-110)
Over/Under pick
These teams came into this series as the two highest-rated defensive clubs in the league during the postseason but oddsmakers have actually been setting their totals a tad too low in recent weeks. The Over/Under for Game 3 pushed at 220 and both teams are now 4-0-1 O/U in their last five games. They are also a sizzling 6-0-1 to the Over in their previous seven games in the head-to-head.
It's actually a bit surprising that the Over/Under pushed on Sunday when you consider that Suns leading scorer Booker had a brutal shooting day and sat out the entire fourth quarter, while Ayton missed much of the second half due to foul trouble.
Chris Paul, Jrue Holiday, and Antetokounmpo also all came out of the game with five minutes remaining as the contest was well out of reach.
We're expecting better shooting from Booker and a more competitive contest this time around, which should mean that the best offensive players in this matchup aren't riding the pine at the end of the game. Take the Over.
PREDICTION: Over 220.5 (-110)
Third-quarter pick
When you consider that Overs have been cashing for these teams you might be surprised to see that first-half totals have gone 3-0 to the Under in this series. Phoenix and Milwaukee combined for 105 points in the first half of Game 1, just 101 points in Game 2, and 106 points in Game 3.
While the offenses for both squads have been taking a little while to get going, they tend to heat up in the third quarter, where they have totaled at least 62 points in every game of the finals.
The Suns also hit the third-quarter Over in the last two games of the Western Conference Finals while the Bucks torched the Hawks for a whopping 44 points in the third quarter of their series-clinching victory in the East Finals. Expect another efficient third stanza from these squads and take the Over 56.5.
PREDICTION: Third-quarter Over 56.5 (-115)
Suns vs Bucks betting card
- Phoenix +4 (-110)
- Over 220.5 (-110)
- Third-quarter Over 56.5 (-115)
Picks made on 7/12/2021 at 11 a.m. ET
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