Grizzlies vs Celtics Picks and Predictions: League's Hottest Teams Clash in Primetime

Two of the NBA's hottest teams will clash on TNT Thursday night, as the 43-20 Memphis Grizzlies head east to face the surging 37-27 Boston Celtics. 

Memphis' season of dreams has continued after the All-Star break, with back-to-back wins topped off by a 50-point-spectacular from Ja Morant on his home court. Boston, meanwhile, has recently become the team it was expected to be, with a long and switchable defense and a capacity for fireworks on the offensive end. 

It's a game well worthy of its national stage — but how will it play out? Keep reading for our free NBA picks and predictions for Grizzlies vs. Celtics, with tip set for March 3.

Grizzlies vs Celtics odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The Grizzlies opened at -2 and after some movement overnight, that line shifted to -3.5 across the board. The total opened at 225.5 but was bet down to 224.5. 

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Grizzlies vs Celtics predictions

• Prediction: Grizzlies -3.5 (-110)
• Prediction: Under 224.5 (-110)
• Best bet: Robert Williams Over 2.5 blocks (-105)

Predictions made on 3/2/2022 at 5:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Grizzlies vs Celtics game info

• Location: TD Garden, Boston, MA
• Date: Thursday, March 3, 2022
• Tip-off: 7:30 p.m. ET
• TV: TNT

Grizzlies vs Celtics betting preview

Key injuries

Grizzlies: Dillon Brooks SG (Out).
Celtics: Jaylen Brown SG (Doubtful).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Grizzlies are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games as a road favorite. Find more NBA betting trends for Grizzlies vs. Celtics.

Grizzlies vs Celtics picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Spread analysis

As 2021 neared a close, Boston was a mess, and talk of breaking up Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown was increasing in volume. The turn of the calendar has seen a brand-new Celtics team, however, as key role players Marcus Smart and Robert Williams have joined the Jays as driving forces. 

Since December 31, Boston is 21-8 and trailing only the incredible Suns in wins over that span. It's been a two-way effort for these rejuvenated Celtics, as they lead the league in net rating, at 11.8, as well as defensive rating. The gap between Boston and second (Phoenix at 8.4) in net rating is the equivalent to the gap between the Suns and the eighth-best net rating.

Not a bad turnaround for a team that went into a Dec. 31 meeting with those same Suns at 16-19 with a net rating of 0.3. 

Yet, for as good as the Celtics have been over the last three months, they still don't quite match the Grizzlies' excellent season. Even more impressive is, like Boston, Memphis has gone up another level in 2022 after closing out 2021 at 22-14 with a net rating of 2.3.

Since then, the Grizzlies have gone 21-6 and while they do trail these Celtics in net rating (currently fourth at 7.3) they are the only team in the Top 5 in both offensive and defensive rating — stonecold evidence of Memphis' status as a genuinely great NBA team. 

Memphis has been lights out against the spread, too, with an NBA-best 42-21 mark. That consistency has extended on the road, where the Grizz are 6-1 in their last seven as favorites away from home. Boston is good and will keep things close but as the Grizzlies have proven all year they are simply better — and have enough to cover this spread, especially with Brown's uncertain status for Boston. 

Prediction: Grizzlies -3.5 (-110)

Over/Under analysis

Early action came, understandably so, on the Under as two of the NBA's Top 5 defenses since Dec. 31 take to the floor here. 

As mentioned, Boston has the best defensive rating in 2022 by a wide margin and is nearly matchup proof on the defensive end. The Celtics have effectively meshed tenacious on-ball defenders in Marcus Smart and Derrick White with long, switchable wings in Tatum and Brown.

It has all come together, however, with a shift to have Robert Williams operate as a help defender while continuing to be an elite rim defender, as Timelord is averaging a career-high 2.2 blocks per game with a solidified role. His play, as well as the Celtics' length in the backcourt and on the wing, will be absolutely crucial against a Grizzlies team that loves to attack the rim and operate in the midrange. 

Boston matching up as well as a team can against the Grizzlies shapes this up to be fairly low-scoring, with Memphis' defense similarly set up to slow the Celtics' offense. With two great defenses — with the ability to adequately matchup with its opponent — involved, we're going with the early action and taking the Under here. 

Prediction: Under 224.5 (-110)

Best bet

As we touched on above, Williams has reached a new level as a defensive force in a more free role. Timelord can protect the rim and swat shots with the NBA's paint defenders, with his 2.2 blocks per game trailing just Rudy Gobert (2.3). 

Williams won't be short on opportunities against a Grizzlies team that absolutely loves to attack the rim and work down low. Memphis takes the fifth-most shots from within 0-3 and 3-10 feet from the rim in the NBA, with over half its shots accounted for in that range. 

While Timelord hasn't played this young Memphis team yet this year, he posted four blocks in each of the two matchups between the Celtics and Grizzlies last year. Count on him to top the 2.5 block total on the board ahead of Thursday night. 

Pick: Robert Williams Over 2.5 blocks (-105)

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