It’s an early season rodeo road trip for the Memphis Grizzlies as they get ready to play the Dallas Mavericks following a shootout with the Houston Rockets just last night.
The Grizzlies are 2-0 but have shown some early-season rust as they try to hold the fort until Jaren Jackson Jr. returns from offseason foot surgery.
The Mavericks meanwhile are looking for their first win of the year after letting a large fourth-quarter lead over the Phoenix Suns slip away on Wednesday.
Our NBA picks and predictions for Grizzlies vs. Mavericks zero in on a Memphis player currently experiencing some growing pains as he adjusts to a larger role.
Grizzlies vs Mavericks best odds
Grizzlies vs Mavericks picks and predictions
It has been a bumpy start to the season for Memphis Grizzlies sharpshooter Desmond Bane.
Bane turned in an outstanding sophomore season, averaging a highly efficient 18.2 points per game, garnering significant consideration for Most Improved Player as well as some fringe All-Star chatter, but Bane has struggled to open the year, sliding to a larger role on offense as both Jaren Jackson Jr. and Dillon Brooks miss time.
Of course, the last time most of the NBA world saw Bane, he was struggling as well, but that was due to a significant back injury that sapped his mobility against the Golden State Warriors in the playoffs. The assumption was naturally that he’d rehab and come back better than ever, but Bane is still a young player, and development at the NBA level is not linear.
Through two games Bane is shooting 9-38 (23.6%) from the field and 6-23 (26%) from beyond the arc. It would be aggressive to pick a line based on a two-game body of work, but those numbers are in line with Bane’s performance in the preseason, where he shot just 24% from deep over four games. Most players find it difficult to match efficiency with increased usage, and so far, Bane has proven no exception.
The Dallas Mavericks play a lot of rangey, smart players on the wing including Dorian Finney-Smith and Reggie Bullock, who make life hard on perimeter scorers. And unlike most good defenses, they make it a point not to concede threes. Last season, they allowed the seventh-fewest 3-point attempts as a proportion of the opposing teams' offense in the NBA, per Cleaning the Glass.
I’ve little doubt that Bane will shake off the cobwebs soon enough, but jump shooting is all about legs and an early road back-to-back is doing him no favors here.
My best bet: Desmond Bane Under 20.5 points (-120)
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Grizzlies vs Mavericks spread analysis
Because the Grizzlies are on a back-to-back, NBA odds haven’t had much time to move this from the opening line of Mavericks -5.5. Also, because of that quick turnaround, I’d lean toward Dallas in this matchup.
No less than Ja Morant does, Luka Doncic requires a full team defensive effort in order to remotely contain. While Memphis has opened the season with a pair of wins, neither was particularly impressive (except for the play of Morant of course, who has looked sensational).
The Grizzlies first showed some vulnerability to the New York Knicks in their opener. Without Jaren Jackson Jr. in the lineup, they struggled to contain a fairly modest Knicks offense, allowing a borderline disastrous 68 points in the paint. Luka is 10 times the threat in the painted area that anyone on the Knicks is and he has better complimentary shooting around him as well.
The Grizzlies then played another nailbiter last night, this time against Houston, with the game hanging in the balance with five minutes to play until Memphis finally blew it open. Houston has some intriguing prospects but allowing the Rockets to hang 122 (including another 50 points in the paint) is an indictment of the Grizzlies' early-season interior defense.
Grizzlies vs Mavericks Over/Under analysis
The total for this matchup has landed at 220.5. Both these teams were quality defenses last season so an Under at that number would not surprise, but it remains to be seen how the Grizzlies will defend against elite offenses without Jaren Jackson.
Outside of free throws and dunks, the most valuable shot on an NBA court is an open corner three. One of the secrets to the Grizzlies’ Top-5 defense last season was their ability to limit that specific shot better than anyone else in the league. That should put a dent in this total, as when Luka isn’t scoring himself, his preferred outcome on any given possession is kicking it to the open corner shooter.
Losing depth pieces like Kyle Anderson and De’Anthony Melton makes Memphis’ defensive scheme more vulnerable to absences than they were last season. Doncic is also a master manipulator and will poke and prod until he finds the matchup he wants.
The Mavericks' defense faces its own questions as they try to integrate Christian Wood and JaVale McGee into an already stuffed frontcourt rotation. Wood looked incredible in his first outing as a Mav, but head coach Jason Kidd still didn’t trust him enough on defense to play him down the stretch.
I think the Mavericks will score enough, but I wouldn’t be confident in the Grizzlies keeping pace on tired legs.
Grizzlies vs Mavericks betting trend to know
Dallas is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 home games vs. teams with winning road records. Find more NBA betting trends for Grizzlies vs. Mavericks.
Grizzlies vs Mavericks game info
| Location: | American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX |
| Date: | Saturday, October 22, 2022 |
| Tip-off: | 8:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Sports Southeast |
