Two of the best in the west will square off at Ball Arena on Tuesday night as the Memphis Grizzlies take on the Denver Nuggets.
The Grizzlies and Nuggets currently pace their conference by win percentage at .655 and .621, respectively. Memphis had a seven-game win streak going until Saturday night when they were upset by the Thunder. Meanwhile, the Nuggets have won four of their last five overall.
Can the Grizzlies keep Denver in their rearview mirror? Find out in our free NBA picks and predictions for Grizzlies vs. Nuggets on December 20.
Grizzlies vs Nuggets best odds
Grizzlies vs Nuggets picks and predictions
The wrong team appears to be favored in this battle of Western Conference heavyweights, as bettors should count on some Denver home cooking tonight.
The Nuggets have played the fewest home games of any team in the NBA to this point, hosting only 12 tilts. They’ve gone 9-3 in that sample, outscoring the opposition by an average of 9.1 points per night. Their point differential for the season is a mere +1.0 per game.
Nikola Jokic is not surprisingly at the forefront of Denver’s superior home offense, as he’s averaged 26.9 points per game at Ball Arena this year and 23.9 points per game everywhere else. Jokic was dominant against the Grizzlies last season, averaging 29.5 points, 11.3 rebounds, and 7.5 assists over four meetings.
It’s unlikely that Memphis will come up with an answer on defense against the reigning NBA MVP, especially as the visitors. The Grizzlies jump from 111.7 points allowed per game overall to 117.7 per game on the road. Only the Pistons and the Spurs have worse overall numbers on defense than Memphis away from home.
The Grizzlies also struggle offensively away from FedExForum, falling from 116.2 points per game overall to 112.9 points per game as the away team. Ja Morant and Dillon Brooks have actually scored more as visiting players than they have in their own building this year, but most of their teammates can’t say the same.
Jaren Jackson Jr. drops from 17.5 points per game to 16.4 on the road. Bench players Brandon Clarke and Santi Aldama experience a sharper drop-off from 11.5 to 8.2 points per game, and 12.6 to 7.5 points per game, respectively, when the venue shifts away from Memphis.
Roll with the Nuggets all the way up to -1.
My best bet: Nuggets +2 (-110 at Caesars)
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Grizzlies vs Nuggets spread analysis
Considering how Jokic has dominated the Grizzlies in the past and the fact that he’s in peak form at present, the Nuggets are tough to bet against.
Jokic is fresh off a 40-point performance against the Hornets in which he produced a career-high 27 rebounds to go with 10 assists — good for his fifth triple-double of the campaign. He joined Wilt Chamberlain as the only player to reach those numbers in a single game. Jokic set a franchise record by tallying 20 rebounds in the first half of that 119-115 triumph.
The Grizzlies have specialized in controlling the rebound game, as they’re tops in the NBA in total boards per tilt (49.1). That would give them hope on the road against most teams, but not against Jokic and Denver, which are second in opponent rebounds per game (39.9).
Trend bettors should note that the Grizzlies are 8-20-1 against the spread in their last 29 road games, including an 0-6 ATS run in their last six road games against teams with winning home records. The Grizzlies are also 2-5-1 ATS in the last eight meetings with the Nuggets in Denver.
Denver has played up to their competition of late, going 5-2 ATS in its last seven games against teams with a winning percentage above .600.
Grizzlies vs Nuggets Over/Under analysis
The total is a bit tougher to get a read on than the spread, but the Under looks like the stronger side.
Both the Grizzlies and the Nuggets rank in the Top-10 in scoring and are in the middle third of the league in scoring defense. However, oddsmakers have hung a total of 234, which seems awfully high.
Memphis does not shoot as well on the road as they do at home, dropping from 46.8% to 45.5% from the floor. Grizzlies games are averaging only 225.4 points over their last 10 games overall.
Denver’s scoring is not as robust as it could be without Michael Porter Jr., who hasn’t played since Nov. 22 due to a heel injury. Bruce Brown has been decent in his stead, but the rest of the Nuggets' bench has not. Denver’s reserves scored only 18 points against Charlotte when last seen.
The Under is 8-3 in the Nuggets’ last 11 games played on one day of rest, with an identical record in their last 11 home games. The Under has also cashed in four straight Grizzlies road games in which they played a team with a winning home record.
Grizzlies vs Nuggets betting trend to know
The Under is 17-7 in the Nuggets’ last 24 games against teams with winning straight up records. Find more NBA betting trends for Grizzlies vs. Nuggets.
Grizzlies vs Nuggets game info
| Location: | Ball Arena, Denver, CO |
| Date: | Tuesday, December 20, 2022 |
| Tip-off: | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TNT |
