Grizzlies vs Pacers Picks and Predictions: No Morant, No Problem for Memphis

A lost season for the Indiana Pacers gets a rude reminder of another small-market franchise's greener grass when the Memphis Grizzlies visit tonight. 

While Memphis has roundly exceeded expectations this year, Indiana was among the hopefuls for a lower-rung playoff seed, but instead sits as lottery fodder, 11 games back of a play-in spot. 

As such, it's a significant underdog at home tonight — find out the best betting value with our NBA picks and predictions for Grizzlies vs. Pacers on Tuesday, March 15. 

Grizzlies vs Pacers odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

Memphis opened mostly at -7.5, which is where it sits across the board after some movement towards 7 at some books. The total has been scattered everywhere between 232 and 235, with 234.5 as the most common number as of Tuesday morning. 

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Grizzlies vs Pacers predictions

• Prediction: Memphis -7.5 (-110)
• Prediction: Under 235 (-110)
• Best bet: Haliburton Over 26.5 pts + asts (-105)

Predictions made on 3/15/2022 at 10:15 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Grizzlies vs Pacers game info

• Location: Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN
• Date: Tuesday, March 15, 2022
• Tip-off: 7:00 p.m. ET
• TV: Bally Sports Indiana, Bally Sports Southeast

Grizzlies vs Pacers betting preview

Key injuries

Grizzlies: Ja Morant PG (Doubtful).
Pacers: Myles Turner C (Out), Malcolm Brogdon PG (Questionable), TJ Warren SF (Out), T.J. McConnell PG (Out), Chris Duarte SG (Questionable), Lance Stephenson G (Questionable), Goga Bitadze C (Questionable), Ricky Rubio PG (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.

Betting trend to know

Grizzlies are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games following an ATS loss. Find more NBA betting trends for Grizzlies vs. Pacers.

Grizzlies vs Pacers picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Spread analysis

So, Ja Morant's doubtful for tonight's game. Let's deal with that right off the bat. 

Obviously, missing a Top-4 MVP odds candidate should severely handicap a squad in theory, but Memphis is one of the NBA's deepest teams and has already proven it can crush spreads without Morant, going 9-3 ATS (10-2 SU) in 12 games he missed in November-December. Tyus Jones is basketball's most efficient playmaker and low-key one of the best backup PGs in the NBA — he's been dynamite when called upon to start this season.

Around Jones, Memphis still has a deep corps of scorers that gets a lot of juice with the return of Dillon Brooks, who has played in just 22 games this season. Yes, the Grizzlies have been blowing expectations out of the water, largely without one of their best players. Despite his still-questionable shot selection, Brooks has improved as an attacker, and still brings All-World defense every night.

Defense is something Memphis may not have to exert too much effort with tonight, as the Pacers' roster has been decimated by a combination of trades and injuries, leaving Sacramento transplants Tyrese Haliburton and Buddy Hield to run with a troop of fringe-level talent that shouldn't test the Grizzlies much. Haliburton has been brilliant (averaging damn near 20-10 as a Pacer on a sublime .620 effective field goal percentage — great trade, Vivek!) but there's too little help around him without Malcolm Brogdon's probing to keep the defense on its toes. 

Brogdon's hurt again (huge surprise!), listed as questionable for a game the Pacers have zero incentive to play him in — expect him to sit. Morant, for all his gifts, still isn't a strong on-ball defender, and it will only be tougher for the short-handed Pacers to flex on that end against increased fluidity on D with Brooks re-asserting himself.

Look for Memphis' scoring depth to be the difference in this game, as the Pacers simply don't have the guns to keep up with the Grizzlies' balanced attack with this many bodies sidelined. The favorites almost let one slip against a clearly-inferior Knicks team their last time out — don't count on the NBA's best ATS team getting caught sleeping again. 

Prediction: Memphis -7.5 (-110)

Over/Under analysis

At first glance, this looks like a clear Over, with two teams that can enable each other in a shootout and have been piling on points lately, averaging a combined 235.8 points per game in their past 10 contests.

But, as one of the internet's most immortal memes attests, first glances can get you into lots of shit.

There's plenty about this game that suggests an Under against a reasonably high total, and a lot of it has to do with Memphis' sans-Ja ethos. Those who've followed the Grizzlies closely this season will recall that Morant's knee sprain in late November was the inflection point of a clear philosophical shift for Memphis, from the NBA's worst defensive team to one of its best. 

With its offensive gamebreaker sidelined, Memphis had to shift focus and find new ways to win. They clamped down on defense, allowing an incredibly stingy 95.58 ppg in the 12 games Morant missed, going 0-12 O/U against this total in the process. Yes, several of those games were played against teams with severe injuries, but that's exactly what we have tonight.

We can expect Memphis to be more deliberate on the offensive end with Morant out, even with Brooks' penchant for early-shot-clock heaves. This milking of the clock will be mirrored on the other end, where the Pacers' neutered and low-continuity lineup should struggle against what projects as a strong-at-worst defensive unit.

This total is artificially high given these teams' reputations, but without Morant and Brogdon, this game should play out differently. 

Prediction: Under 235 (-110)

Best bet

As mentioned above, Haliburton has been dynamite since coming over to the Pacers from that mess in Sacramento, averaging a combined 29.1 points and assists in Indy. 

Tonight's matchup pegs his total at 26.5 for that market, in a game where he figures to see a sky-high usage rate with Brogdon likely sitting. While drawing Dillon Brooks as a likely cover is less than ideal, Haliburton's a tough competitor who will fight to get his, and should be leaned on a ton by this shallow roster. 

Tyrese is a consistent performer who operates efficiently and is less prone to an off-night than some of the Grizzlies' targets for player props with Morant out. He's topped this total in 9 of 13 games as a Pacer, often having to share touches with Brogdon. 

Against a Grizzlies team that, while projecting slower than normal, certainly won't slow this game to a crawl, we like Haliburton to show out again.

Pick: Tyrese Haliburton Over 26.5 points + assists (-105)

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