Hawks vs Celtics Game 5 Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Brown Helps Down Atlanta

The Boston Celtics restored order in their series against the Atlanta Hawks in Game 4, earning a commanding 3-1 lead as the action returns to TD Garden on Tuesday, April 25. Adding to the sting of losing at home, Hawks star guard Dejounte Murray got into an altercation with a referee as he was leaving the floor and has been suspended by the NBA for Game 5.

While the Hawks fought gamely, the Celtics had answers for every Atlanta run. With the Eastern Conference looking more wide open than ever before, the Celtics will look to close things out tonight with eyes on a repeat NBA Finals bid.

Our NBA picks and predictions for Game 5 of Hawks vs. Celtics are banking on a massive Jaylen Brown performance to end the series.

Hawks vs Celtics Game 5 best odds

Hawks vs Celtics Game 5 picks and predictions

One of the key storylines of this series has been the athletic deficit facing the Atlanta Hawks. The Hawks have more wing-size players than the average team, and against most NBA rotations, that would give them an advantage. The Boston Celtics are not most teams though. Not only do they have All-NBA caliber wings, but nearly all their core perimeter players also have size, speed, and strength advantages over almost all of Atlanta’s.

That deficit has been problematic for Atlanta’s defense, which is why their only realistic hope in this series has been to shoot a lot of threes and win the possession battle by attacking the offensive glass. And it’s only going to be worse with Atlanta losing Murray for Tuesday’s game.

Murray’s absence should have a particularly large impact on the production of Jaylen Brown, as the former San Antonio Spur has been his primary defender through the first four games. Brown has had an up-and-down series, scoring 60 points collectively in Games 1 and 4, but just 33 total points in Games 2 and 3. However, Brown just finished an All-NBA level season, scoring 26.6 points per game on a 55% effective field goal percentage.

Something seemed to change after a slow start in Game 4. Brown opted to toss his mask, which he’s been wearing due to a facial fracture he suffered on February 8. After starting just 1-7 on the night, he went 11-15 from the field once he ditched the Zorro act. 

Whether it’s due to a lack of effort or solid perimeter defense, Brown’s issue has been getting penetration rather than finishing once he gets there. The Celtics play a lot of five-out looks that significantly hamper Clint Capela or Onyeka Okongwu’s ability to protect the rim. 

In lineups that the Celtics are going with Robert Williams III as the sole big, they simply involve him in one of their stack or Spain screening actions, pulling the Hawks big out of the paint. The Celtics are averaging 53.5 points in the paint in this series, up from 46.4 in the regular season, a lot of which has been Brown’s handiwork.

On plays when Brown has been able to attack with a full head of steam, he glided in for uncontested layups more often than not. Brown is shooting 71% at the rim this season per Cleaning the Glass, putting him in the 82nd percentile among all wings. That’s not even taking into account the number of times he draws fouls at the basket as an out-of-position defender futilely tries to disrupt him.

Murray wasn’t an ideal matchup for Brown, but his 6-foot-10 wingspan did allow him to corral Brown on a number of attempted drives or prevent him from catching the ball cleanly to attack. With Murray out, Brown is going to be attacking either slower power forward types like John Collins or Jalen Johnson, or guards who simply do not have the strength to hang with him.

The Celtics want to be over and done with this series, and with Brown having such an advantageous mode of attack available to him in Game 5, I’m betting he’ll have a big night.

My best bet: Jaylen Brown Over 26.5 points (-115)

Hawks vs Celtics Game 5 spread analysis

This series has gentleman’s sweep written all over it. Even though the Hawks played well in Game 4, the Celtics held around a 10-point cushion over them for nearly the duration of the contest. Now that the Celtics are returning to play in front of their home fans, the quality difference between the two teams is likely to be much starker. The Celtics are 5-0 against the spread in their last five games at TD Garden, as well as 7-1 ATS overall.

The Hawks by contrast have a pattern of not rising to the moment against elite competition. While their Game 3 win was solid, it came against a Celtics team who did not take the game particularly seriously. That’s their lone ATS win in their last 10 games against teams with a winning percentage north of .600. It’s also their only ATS win in their last nine head-to-head matchups between these two teams.

Murray’s absence looms large as well, as he has probably been Atlanta’s best player in the series. Still, -13 is a gargantuan line. Given that the Celtics have already shown a lack of focus once in this series and the Hawks’ offense has found its groove, I can’t recommend betting the spread.

Hawks vs Celtics Game 5 Over/Under analysis

Even though it seems like these two teams are scoring at will in this matchup, they grade out as merely average offenses in the playoffs so far per Cleaning the Glass. The Hawks’ best defense to this point of the series has been hoping the Celtics get bored of working to get good shots or putting Trae Young in pick-and-roll. Because when Boston decides to do those things, the Hawks have shown almost no ability to stop them.

The Celtics are so effective at creating and taking threes that they can fall into a trap of hunting those shots even when more productive looks at the basket have not been hard to come by.  The Hawks have to work harder, but to their credit, their offensive rebounding has allowed them to put up respectable numbers against this elite Celtics' defense.

Interestingly, this line opened at 231.5 and has fallen to 229.5 at most sportsbooks. That’s despite the Over going 6-2-1 in the Hawks’ last nine games. That’s probably at least in part because of the series returning to Boston. The Celtics have been a much better defensive team at home this season, and the Hawks’ shooting did not travel to begin the series. The Under is 4-1 in the Celtics’ last five games against teams with a losing record.

Hawks vs Celtics betting trend to know

Hawks are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. Find more NBA betting trends for Hawks vs. Celtics.

Hawks vs Celtics Game 5 game info

Hawks vs Celtics Game 5 key injuries

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