Hawks vs Raptors Picks and Predictions: Gary Leads the Charge From Three

The Toronto Raptors have done pretty much as well as can be expected considering the gauntlet they have endured to start the season, and that continues when they welcome the high-flying Atlanta Hawks to town on Monday night.

The Trae Young-Dejounte Murray experiment is working thus far, with Atlanta off to a 4-2 start. But unlike the Raps, the competition for it hasn’t been all that spooky. That is until a meeting with the Milwaukee Bucks last time out.

Can Toronto’s swarming defense give Atlanta’s dynamic guards problems? I break it all down and give you my best bet which will hopefully all treat and no trick in a Halloween edition in my NBA betting picks and predictions for Hawks vs. Raptors.

Hawks vs Raptors best odds

Hawks vs Raptors picks and predictions

The Raptors are coming arguably their first poor performance of the season — a 112-90 loss to the Philadelphia 76ers in the second of their two-game home set — and a game the Sixers were without Joel Embiid.

Toronto is a strong defense team once again that can switch on anyone and wreak havoc by getting in the passing lanes, resulting in a strong transition offense. The half-court offense on the other hand is still one of the worst in the NBA and if Toronto doesn’t move the ball well, the offense can get stagnant. 

Meanwhile, the Hawks began the season 4-1, picking on teams like the Orlando Magic and the Detroit Pistons. Atlanta has some strong defensive numbers to go along with its terrific tandem guard combo of Young and Murray. Then a matchup against the Bucks brought the Hawks back down to Earth.

Milwaukee won that matchup 123-115 while shooting 49% from the field, including going 14-for-36 (39%) from 3-point range.

With Trae Young and Dejounte Murray on the other side, the Raptors will have to replicate what the Bucks did and get a few players to heat up from downtown. Unfortunately, Toronto could be down one of its sharpshooters as Fred VanVleet has been downgraded to questionable with lower back stiffness.

That means there are a few more shots out there for the other Toronto to scoop up, and someone on the Raptors who isn’t shy of jacking up a few more shots is Gary Trent Jr.

The shooting guard is averaging 19.2 points per game on 43.8% shooting, including 39.8% from beyond the arc on a whopping 9.3 attempts per game. His made 3-point total is set at a low 2.5, just very much juiced to the Over. 

But luckily, at least one sportsbook is giving us an alternate made threes prop for Trent. You can get 4-plus made threes for Trent at +155 — a number he has hit in four of his six games this season. That value plus the chance for added opportunities make this a bet too good to pass up.

My best bet: Gary Trent Jr. to get 4+ three pointers (+155 at PointsBet)

Hawks vs Raptors spread analysis

Despite having the worse record, sportsbooks are giving the Raptors respect for navigating their tough early-season schedule. Toronto opened this Eastern conference matchup as 3-point home favorites and was bet up to -4 before moving back to the opening number Monday afternoon.

The big question in this matchup will be whether Toronto can shut down Trae Young and Dejounte Murray. Young is averaging 31.5 points, 9.7 assists, and 3.8 rebounds while Murray is adding 20 ppg, 7.3 apg, and 6.5 rpg while playing some tough defense. 

As noted, Toronto is a high-IQ defensive team with an extremely high motor. The likes of Scottie Barnes, O.G. Anunoby, and Gary Trent Jr. are exactly the type of defenders who can give the Hawks issues. 

On top of that, in the loss to the Bucks, outside of Young and Murray, Atlanta got very little scoring out of the rest of its lineup.

That said, not having Fred VanVleet could hurt the Raptors. Not only is he one of the team’s best shooters, but he is also a reliable defender against opposing guards. So, keep an eye on his status before betting on a side in this one. 

And similarly to the Hawks, Toronto's bench has been lacking production this season. I see too much variance in the outcome of this one, particularly with VanVleet now questionable, so I’ll stay away.

Hawks vs Raptors Over/Under analysis

The total hit the board at 224 and the early money has brought the number down to 222.5, but there could be some scoring tonight.

Young and Murray are as dangerous a guard combo as there is in the NBA and despite the loss, the team still put up 115 points against the Bucks, who rank first in the NBA in defensive rating through the first few weeks of the season. 

Meanwhile, the Hawks' defense is starting to show a few leaks. They played a good team like the Bucks, who promptly, shot 50% from the field, and gave up 123 points. Atlanta has now given up an average of 116 points over its last three contests. 

Now, no one is going to confuse the Raptors' offense for the Bucks, but there is enough talent on the team to expose the Hawks' lack of depth. Plus, the team ranks 11th in 3-point shooting percentage. This number is low enough for these two teams to eclipse, so I would lean toward the Over.

Hawks vs Raptors betting trend to know

The Over is 4-0 in the Hawks' last four overall, and 10-4 in the Raptors' last 14 games vs. a team with a winning record. Find more NBA betting trends for Hawks vs. Raptors.

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