Just two days after springing a stunning upset, the Indiana Pacers will look to make it a home-and-home sweep as they host the Cleveland Cavaliers tonight.
Indiana is getting a healthy number of points at home despite its recent success, and I’ll be taking it to cover in my Cavaliers vs. Pacers predictions below.
Let’s dig deeper into this matchup in my free NBA picks for Tuesday, January 14 at Gainbridge Fieldhouse.
Cavaliers vs Pacers prediction
My best bet
Pacers +8 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
The Cleveland Cavaliers have been the best team in the NBA, putting up an incredible 33-5 record. That’s why it was such a shock when the Indiana Pacers came into Cleveland and beat the Cavs by 15, ending a 12-game winning streak.
How did Indiana pull this off? The obvious answer is a second-half surge where the Pacers outscored the Cavaliers 68-40. But more broadly, the game showed many of the tweaks and improvements that Indiana has made in January.
The Pacers are undefeated in 2025, winning all six January games. The biggest change we’ve seen is a much-improved defense. Indiana had been a below-average defensive unit this season, with a defensive rating of 114 (20th in the NBA) and allowing 114.9 points per game (21st) to opponents.
It looks like we can throw those numbers out the window. Indiana has allowed just 104.0 PPG over their last six, and while largely shutting down solid offensive teams like the Phoenix Suns and Chicago Bulls was impressive, it was the game against the Cavs that was truly eye-opening.
Cleveland has been the best offensive team in the league, putting up 122.1 PPG and leading the NBA in offensive rating. Heading into Sunday’s game, the Cavaliers had scored at least 113 points in 17 straight. Indiana responded by holding Cleveland to its lowest point total of the year, allowing just 93. Even in their better first-half performance, the Cavaliers were only on pace to score 106 points for the game.
It would be foolish to expect Indiana to replicate that level of success tonight. But it’s also incorrect to give eight points to a team playing this well and this consistently, especially when that team is playing at home.
One reason for the larger spread is Tyrese Haliburton's status, who is doubtful with left hamstring soreness. That’s a real loss for the Pacers, but let’s remember Haliburton only played 19 minutes against the Cavaliers before leaving with that injury on Sunday, scoring just two points.
In other words, the Pacers have done this once largely without Haliburton, and I expect them to be competitive against the Cavaliers again tonight.
Cavaliers vs Pacers same-game parlay
Indiana +8.5
Under 232.5
Donovan Mitchell Under 22.5 points
Looking at its first win, I’m going to pair Indiana on the spread with the Under. While both teams are capable of putting up points, Sunday’s game ended with a total of just 201, and Indiana has been playing outstanding defense, hitting the Under four straight times.
As a result of that low-scoring environment, I’m also betting on Donovan Mitchell to come in Under his scoring total of 22.5 points. Mitchell has been in a bit of a scoring slump, putting up 19 points or less in each of his last four games.
With the Pacers currently being extremely stingy with opponents, that streak continues tonight.
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Cavaliers vs Pacers odds
Cavaliers vs Pacers live odds
Cavaliers vs Pacers opening odds
- Spread: Cleveland -5.5 (-115) | Indiana +5.5 (-105)
- Moneyline: Cleveland -245 | Indiana +200
- Over/Under: Over 226.5 (-110) | Under 226.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Cavaliers vs Pacers spread and Over/Under analysis
- Cleveland is 26-12 against the spread this season, while Indiana has gone 20-19-1 ATS on the year.
- The Pacers are 6-3 ATS in their last nine meetups against the Cavaliers.
- The Over has done well when these teams have played, posting a 25-13 record in Cleveland’s games and 21-17-2 in Indiana's.
- The Cavaliers are averaging 233.4 PGG this year, with the Pacers at 230.1.
Cavaliers vs Pacers trend
Indiana is 6-0 ATS in its last six games overall. Find more NBA betting trends for Cavaliers vs. Pacers.
How to watch Cavaliers vs Pacers
| Location: | Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN |
| Date: | Tuesday, 1-14-2025 |
| Tip-off: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TNT |
Cavaliers vs Pacers latest injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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