Heat vs Cavaliers Picks and Predictions: Cleveland Flexes It's Talent Against Miami

The Miami Heat head to Rocket Mortgage Fieldhouse to face off against the Cleveland Cavaliers on Tuesday night. Cleveland is currently in fifth place in the Eastern Conference standings with a 31-21 record, while Miami is one spot behind with a 28-23 mark.

This is the lowest total that we've seen on the NBA odds board in weeks at 210.5, while the Cavs are installed as 4-point home favorites. Here are my best free NBA picks and predictions for Heat vs. Cavaliers on January 31.

Heat vs Cavaliers best odds

Heat vs Cavaliers picks and predictions

The Heat are fresh off a road loss to one of the worst teams in the Charlotte Hornets. While they had won their previous three games, upon closer inspection, none of those were impressive.

They had to stage a fourth-quarter comeback to edge the cellar-dwelling Magic, and barely beat undermanned Celtics and Pelicans squads that were missing Marcus Smart, Jaylen Brown, Al Horford, Malcolm Brogdon, Brandon Ingram, and Zion Williamson.

All three of those victories also came at home, where the Heat have played well this season, but they've been less effective on the road, where they've gone 11-14 straight up with a net rating of minus-1.4. The Cavs have dominated at home going 21-5 SU (including a sizzling 19-2 with Donovan Mitchell in the lineup), boasting a net rating of plus-8.5. 

The Cavaliers have been terrific defensively, and the only area where they've struggled is on the perimeter, where they allow opponents to shoot 37% from deep. However, they've lowered that number to 29.3% in their last three games, and the Heat aren't capable of taking advantage of that weakness since they rank just 27th in the league in 3-point percentage (33.4%).

The Heat also rank just 27th in field goal percentage (45.3%), with that number dropping to 43.4% over their last four contests. They'll have a tough time scoring points against a Cleveland team that defends very well inside the arc, forces turnovers at a high rate, and cleans up on the defensive glass. 

On the other side of the floor, the Cavaliers have been efficient, with an offensive rating of 115.8 in games where Mitchell has played. The Heat are just 26th in the league in opponent effective field goal percentage.

While they do a good job of preventing shots at the rim, they haven't been great at defending opposing guards and will have a tough time matching up with the backcourt duo of Mitchell and Darius Garland.

My best bet: Cavaliers -4 (-110 at bet365)

Heat vs Cavaliers spread analysis

The Heat are coming off a 122-117 loss to the Hornets, which snapped a three-game winning streak. 

Although leading scorer Jimmy Butler (21.9 points per game) and key reserve Gabe Vincent (9.5 ppg) are listed as questionable, Sun Sentinel reporter Ira Winderman has tweeted that both will be available tonight.

Indications are that both Jimmy Butler and Gabe Vincent will be available tonight in Cleveland. Both are listed as questionable on injury report.

— Ira Winderman (@IraHeatBeat) January 31, 2023

Butler and center Bam Adebayo are Miami's best players, while Tyler Herro adds 20.3 ppg as well. On paper, the Heat should have a much better team, but they have a weak bench and their supporting cast has struggled with consistency.

Ranking among the Bottom-5 teams in the league in both effective field goal percentage and opponent effective field goal percentage is a bad look for the Heat, and they're also just 19th in rebound rate. 

The Cavs are fresh off a 122-99 rout of a Clippers team that sat Kawhi Leonard and Paul George. They've been up and down over the last few weeks and are 4-5 SU (5-4 against the spread) in their last nine games, but part of that has been due to the absence of Mitchell, who missed five games due to a groin injury.

Mitchell leads the team with 27.9 ppg on 48/40/87 shooting splits, and Cleveland is much more dynamic on offense when he suits up next to Garland (21.9 ppg, 8.2 assists per game). Cleveland's strong play has been buoyed by the twin towers of Evan Mobley (15.2 ppg, 8.9 rebounds per game) and Jarrett Allen (14.0 ppg, 9.6 rpg). Both big men are highly-efficient scorers inside and have helped Cleveland limit foes to just 46.1 points in the paint per game. 

These teams previously met up in November in Cleveland. While the Cavs dominated in a 113-87 victory, the Heat were missing Butler and Herro.

Heat vs Cavaliers Over/Under analysis

It's rare that we see a total as low as this in the modern game, but given how these teams play, it makes sense. The Cavs play at the slowest tempo in the NBA and rank first in scoring defense (106.9 ppg allowed). The Heat check in at the third-slowest pace and allow the second-fewest points per game (108.4).

I mentioned that the Cavs allow just 46.1 ppg in the paint, but the Heat actually lead the league in that category at just 44.3 ppg.

Both teams also do a good job of pressuring ball handlers, with the Heat ranking first in the league in opponent turnover rate (16.5%) and the Cavs coming in at fifth (15%). However, they tend to play at a slow pace even after forcing turnovers, which should also be conducive to a low-scoring contest. 

Both teams have also cashed the Under in four of their last five games. 

Heat vs Cavaliers betting trend to know

Cleveland is 19-8-1 ATS in its last 28 home games. Find more NBA betting trends for Heat vs. Cavaliers.

Heat vs Cavaliers game info

Heat vs Cavaliers key injuries

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