The Boston Celtics face the Miami Heat in a game with massive playoff implications on Sunday. This game will be played at TD Garden in Boston, Massachusetts, where two of the Eastern Conference’s most talented teams fight to avoid the NBA’s play-in tournament.
Will Boston take care of business at home today? Find out with our free NBA betting picks and predictions for Heat vs. Celtics at 1:00 p.m. ET.
Heat vs Celtics odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
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NBA Sharp Money and Line Movement Report
By Patrick EversonThe line opened at Celtics -1.5 but they have been bet down to underdogs in a game star Jaylen Brown will miss, as they are +1 at FanDuel as of 12:15 p.m. ET. It's been split action, with both the Celtics and Heat each taking 50 percent of moneyline bets, while moneyline dollars are slightly leaning toward Boston at 51 percent. The total opened at 220.5 but has risen to 222.5, and the majority of money and bets have been on the Over at nearly 70 percent for both.
Check out the full line movement for this gameHeat at Celtics betting preview
Injuries
Heat: Victor Oladipo G (Out).
Celtics: Jaylen Brown F (Out), Robert Williams III C (Probable) .
Find our latest NBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Heat are 5-8 ATS as a road underdog this season. Find more NBA betting trends for Heat vs. Celtics.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
On Thursday, Danny Ainge said that Jaylen Brown would probably be returning to the lineup for this meeting with the Heat. This is an extremely important game for both teams, as Miami currently has a one-game lead over Boston for the sixth seed. Whoever gets that spot avoids a play-in scenario, so we expected Brown to be out there if he was even remotely healthy, but he was ruled out.
The Heat rely so much on Jimmy Butler on both ends of the floor, and with Brown out his attention will be focused on Jayson Tatum. That will still require a whole lot of energy from Butler, who will also need to get his offense against one of those two wings. Tatum is one of the best young defensive wings in the league, so that’s not going to be an easy task.
Boston matches up extremely well with the Heat right now. Sure, Miami eliminated Boston from the postseason last year, but this is not the same Heat squad that made that run to the Finals.
Even with Brown out, the Celtics are the way to go. The center position is the only spot where the Heat have a significant positional advantage, as Bam Adebayo should be able to have his way in this game. Boston, however, has the edge at the more important positions, with Kemba Walker standing out as a guy who could really do some damage this afternoon.
PREDICTION: Celtics -1.5 (-110)
Over/Under pick
When these teams met in Miami on January 6, the Celtics came away with a 107-105 victory. Even if this one does end up having a different winner, it’s likely that it still goes Under the total.
Only the New York Knicks play at a slower pace than the Heat this season, and the Celtics aren’t much faster at 20th in the league. These teams are also both Top 15 in defensive rating this season, making this the perfect spot for an Under.
PREDICTION: Under 221 (-110)
Player prop pick
Duncan Robinson hit five threes when these teams met in January, yet the Under is completely juiced in this one. Perhaps that makes the Over a trap at +136? It sure seems like it.
The Celtics are 12th in the league in defensive rating over the last 10 games, and they are going to be extremely locked in with an opportunity to get themselves out of the play-in tournament. That means there will be playoff-like intensity, making it hard to imagine Boston losing track of one of the best shooters on the planet.
PREDICTION: Duncan Robinson Under 3.5 Made Threes (-174)
Heat vs Celtics betting card
- Celtics -1.5 (-110)
- Under 221 (-110)
- Duncan Robinson Under 3.5 Made Threes (-174)
Picks made on 5/09/2021 at 8:40 a.m. ET
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