The Miami Heat hope a blown 14-point lead late in Game 3 doesn't loom large and open the door for the Atlanta Hawks to find their form in this Round 1 NBA Playoffs series.
Miami could easily have a 3-0 series stranglehold heading into Game 4, but it allowed Atlanta to battle back in the fourth quarter on Friday. Now, with injuries starting to mount for Miami’s starters, the Hawks are slim underdogs at home to even the series at 2-2 on Sunday.
Check out our free NBA picks and predictions for Heat at Hawks on April 24.
Heat vs Hawks odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
Miami opened as a 1.5-point road favorite following Game 3’s collapse, and was bet up as high as -2.5 before the market consensus settled in at -2. The total for Sunday’s contest hit the board at 221.5 and has trimmed to as low as 220.5.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Heat vs Hawks predictions
Predictions made on 4/24/2022 at 10:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Heat vs Hawks game info
• Location: State Farm Arena, Atlanta, GA
• Date: Sunday, April 24, 2022
• Tip-off: 7:00 p.m. ET
• TV: TNT
Heat vs Hawks series odds
Heat: -600
Hawks: +425
Heat vs Hawks betting preview
Key injuries
Heat: Kyle Lowry G (Questionable), Bam Adebayo F (Questionable), Caleb Martin G (Questionable), P.J. Tucker F (Questionable), Gabe Vincent G (Questionable).
Hawks: Clint Capela C (Questionable), Lou Williams G (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Atlanta is 71-48-2 ATS (60%) inside State Farm Arena the past three seasons, including a 29-14 SU mark and 25-18 ATS count this year. Find more NBA betting trends for Heat vs. Hawks.
Heat vs Hawks picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Spread analysis
The question marks around some key players could swing the odds and final result for Sunday’s Game 4. The Heat could be without guard Kyle Lowry after he suffered a hamstring injury Friday, piling on the ailments for an already banged-up backcourt for Miami.
Atlanta, on the other hand, got good news on the injury front with standout center Clint Capela “upgraded” to questionable for Game 4. Capela has been sidelined with a knee injury since the play-in win over Cleveland, and his return could have a significant impact for the Hawks on both ends of the floor.
Overall, Atlanta has been the best home bet in the NBA for the past few seasons, going 71-48-2 against the spread (60%) inside State Farm Arena, including a 29-14 straight up mark and 25-18 ATS count this year. The big difference has been the offense, with the Hawks scoring six more points per home game compared to on the road.
Atlanta’s offense benefited from that familiar uptick in Game 3. After shooting a collective 43% from the field in the two games in Miami, the Hawks hit at a 51% clip Friday – catching fire in a 12-for-21 fourth quarter which included going 5 of 11 on 3-point attempts. That effort concluded with Trae Young’s last-second heroics and a 111-110 victory.
While Young received the glory of the game winner it was the Hawks’ support staff that set the stage for those dramatics — getting great efforts from Bogdan Bogdanovic, Delon Wright, and Onyeka Okongwu off the bench. That trio contributed 40 points, 19 rebounds, seven assists, and hit five of the Hawks’ dozen triples.
If Capela can return in some capacity, it gives Atlanta’s short rotation needed depth. He’ll either come off the pine for as many minutes as he can handle or start and bump Danilo Gallinari back to his usual spot as the Hawks’ sixth man. Either way, it’s a big plus for the home side in Game 4.
This contrasts with the issues possibly facing Miami. If Lowry is out, the Heat must rely on the questionable defense of Tyler Herro and Duncan Robinson to slow down a simmering Young and lean on a backcourt that already has guys like Gabe Vincent and Caleb Martin carrying permanent questionable designations in this series.
Defense is Miami’s calling card and has been for the majority of this series. But depth will decide Game 4, and we like the possible positives from the Hawks over the lingering negatives for the Heat. Shop around for that half-point hook on the spread as this contest could come down to another buzzer-beating finish.
Prediction: Hawks +2.5 (-110 at PointsBet)
Over/Under analysis
All three games in this series so far have stayed below the total, with bookmakers parking the Over/Under in the 220 to 222 range. The Game 4 number has followed suit, bouncing between those two posts.
Game 3’s tempo was a notable downtick from the two contests in Miami, sinking from a pace rating of 98.5 to 94.0.
However, the Hawks were much more efficient with the basketball, recording only 11 turnovers after coughing the ball up 14 and 18 times to Miami’s pressure defense in the openers, and boasting an offensive rating of 119.4 on the heels of a 100.0 metric in Miami.
Capela’s possible return would help the Hawks on defense, allowing the perimeter players to play more aggressively and cheat up knowing the 6-foot-10 shot blocker is behind them.
But Capela can also give Atlanta a huge lift on offense as well. He was awesome in April (averaging over 17 points in four games ahead of Cleveland) before the knee injury and is a monster on the offensive glass.
As for Miami, losing Lowry takes a ton of toughness off the floor for the Heat. When he went down in Game 3, head coach Erik Spoelstra was forced to march out Herro and Robinson. Those two trigger-happy guards are excellent on offense but got chewed up by Young and Bogdanovic.
Should the Miami backcourt struggle to defend and get into foul trouble, the Heat might need to go deep down the well or rely on less-than-healthy guards.
The Game 3 total just stayed Under the closing number of 222.5 despite the Hawks posting a 16-point third quarter. With Atlanta accustomed to offensive upticks in the ATL and the Heat forced to play more offensive-minded pieces, we like this one to finally top the total.
Prediction: Over 220.5 (-110 at PointsBet)
Best bet
Lowry’s hamstring injury – whether he’s in or out – will mean more minutes for Duncan Robinson and Tyler Herro.
As pointed out by John Hollinger of The Athletic, Miami’s sets with either of those players on the floor have seen a notable decline in defensive dominance, compared to the Heat’s success with those pylons on the bench.
Miami lugs defensive ratings of 123.0 with Robinson on the floor and 114.5 with Herro checked in this series versus the team’s overall defensive points/100 possessions metric of 106.2 in three games with Atlanta.
The Hawks are a much stronger team at home, boasting an effective field goal rate of 58.8% in Game 3 even with a slow start in both the first and third quarters. The Hawks really spread their wings in the final frame – posting an offensive rating of 136.2 in the 4Q in three playoff games – and Miami’s defensive depth will be fully exposed in crunch time — especially if the backcourt finds itself in foul trouble.
The Hawks’ team total for Game 4 is all over the place, with books like DraftKings pegging both sides with totals of 110.5 points and juicing the Over for Miami. FanDuel is dealing Atlanta Over 110.5 at -104 but we’ll pay a little extra for the lowest team total out there at bet365.
Pick: Hawks team total Over 109.5 (-115 at bet365)
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