Wednesday night’s matchup between the Miami Heat and Atlanta Hawks will see two short-handed squads. That’s no new thing in this season of the NBA, so it’s up to us to handicap how the players on the floor will come out and compete.
The Hawks have disappointed this year and sit 5 games below .500, leading many to speculate that a change-up will occur before the trade deadline comes and goes. The Heat, meanwhile, have trudged on to a 25-15 record behind solid team play.
Check out our free NBA betting picks and predictions for Heat vs. Hawks on January 12.
Heat vs Hawks odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
The Hawks opened as -4.5 favorites, but the line has moved to Hawks -3 at the time of this writing. The total has risen a point from 225.5 to 223.5.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Heat vs Hawks predictions
Predictions made on 1/12/2022 at 8:15 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Heat vs Hawks game info
• Location: State Farm Arena, Atlanta, GA
• Date: Wednesday, January 12, 2022
• Tip-off: 7:30 p.m. ET
• TV: BSSE-ATL, BSSUN
Heat vs Hawks betting preview
Injuries
Heat: Jimmy Butler PF (Out), Bam Adebayo C (Out), Victor Oladipo SG (Out), Markieff Morris PF (Out), KZ Okpala SF (Out), Mario Chalmers PG (Questionable), Nik Stauskas SG (Questionable), Dewayne Dedmon C (Questionable), Gabe Vincent SG (Questionable).
Hawks: Clint Capela C (Doubtful), Cam Reddish SF (Questionable), De’Andre Hunter PF (Questionable), Sharife Cooper PG (Questionable), Gorgui Dieng PF (Questionable), Cameron Oliver SF (Questionable), Chris Clemons PG (Questionable), Solomon Hill PF (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Heat are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games as an underdog. Find more NBA betting trends for Heat vs. Hawks.
Heat vs Hawks picks and predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Spread analysis
The Hawks have disappointed this season, both straight up (17-22) and against the spread (15-24). It’s almost certain that the organization will opt to move some pieces around at the deadline, and that’s probably a good idea. There’s a lot of talent on this roster, but for one reason or another, the pieces haven’t fit.
A few key players will be missing on both sides. For Atlanta, Clint Capela is doubtful, while De’Andre Hunter and Cam Reddish are questionable. Miami will be without its two best players in Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo.
The rest of the Heat roster should be nice and rested since the team has been off following a 23-point win over the powerhouse Suns on January 8. The Heat and Hawks actually play each other again on Friday in Miami, so the line is indicating that the Hawks should pick up a win at home before heading on the road. The way the Hawks have played this season, however, we wouldn’t make any assumptions about them picking up a victory, despite any factors that may be in their favor.
The Heat shoot the 3-ball very well (they rank 3rd in 3-point percentage) and should let the role players loose from deep sans the two best players on the roster. The Hawks rank 23rd in the Association in defending the three, so this is still an advantageous matchup for Miami offensively. The Heat still clean the glass and grab the most defensive rebounds per game in the NBA, so second chances will be few and far between for the Capela-less Hawks.
Prediction: Heat +3 (-110)
Over/Under analysis
The Heat have been profitable to the Over all season with a 25-15 O/U record. The Over has cashed in six straight Heat games and in each of their last 5 road games. The Hawks are susceptible to the long ball, so players like Tyler Herro, Max Strus, and Duncan Robinson should be able to cash in from the perimeter.
The Hawks play at a mediocre pace and are nothing special defensively. We like the Over much more if Hunter and Reddish, the team’s top two wing defenders, can’t go. Losing Capela stings, as the rim protection will suffer. The Heat rank first in the Association in defending the paint, but the Hawks have plenty of shooters to counteract that strength.
Until the Heat stop cashing the Over, we’re going to ride the hot hand. They seem to have found a different identity without Bam that trends to the Over and they'll be nice and rested and ready to run in this matchup.
Prediction: Over 223.5 (-110)
Best bet
The line indicates that the Hawks should be able to grab a win at home before playing the Heat on the road two days later, but we can’t trust the Hawks to take care of business as the favorite.
Miami has been a profitable team against the spread all season. They’re well-coached and should be able to cash in from deep in this matchup. Even shorthanded, we still believe there’s value with the underdog.
Pick: Heat +3 (-110)
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