There are just five games on the slate tonight, but each holds some importance in the postseason race as teams jockey for playoff position.
I pass on the spreads and totals for those contests and get into the NBA player props, handicapping the matchups and motivations in the home stretch of the schedule.
Here are my best NBA picks for April 10.
Best NBA player props today
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Morant Under 25.5 points (-115 at bet365) -
Rollins Over 7.5 points (-115 at bet365) -
Towns Over 2.5 assists (+130 at bet365)
NBA player props for April 10
Ja Morant Under 25.5 points (-115 at bet365)
Ja Morant and Memphis are in the middle of a Western Conference logjam, currently clinging to the No. 6 spot. The Grizzlies bring a three-game winning streak back home thanks to Morant’s scoring efforts.
The explosive guard has put up 36, 30, and 28 points in those wins, and that’s beefed up his scoring total for tonight. Books have Morant’s scoring Over/Under listed at 25.5 and deservedly so, as he’s topped his points prop in nine straight outings.
Minnesota is in a similar spot as Memphis. The Timberwolves are fighting to the finish, currently sitting No. 8 in the West but just one game back of the Grizzlies for the No. 6 seed — and a shot of avoiding the Play-In Round.
The Wolves have done a great job bottling Morant this season. They’ve held the Grizzlies' star to outputs of 19 and 12 points in their two contests on a collective 10-for-35 from the field (29%).
Minnesota ranks sixth in advanced defensive rating and does a great job putting the brakes on opposing teams, employing one of the more methodical paces in the NBA and allowing the seventh fewest fastbreak points — the fuel behind this Grizzlies offense.
This looks like a solid spot to buy back Morant’s red-hot play with the scoring total soaring and a motivated defensive-first foe on the schedule. Player projections would agree.
Forecasts for Morant sit between 20.9 and 23.6 points, but none come in higher than his 25.5 O/U. My number comes out just short of 22 points from Morant, which should have the Under 25.5 priced at -245.
Ryan Rollins Over 7.5 points (-115 at bet365)
The Bucks are getting hot at the right time, and part of that success can be credited to the improved play of guard Ryan Rollins.
With Damian Lillard sidelined, Rollins has excelled in point guard duties. Over the last eight games he’s averaging 13 points on 8.5 field goal attempts and is logging almost 26 minutes of floor time.
His scoring prop for tonight sits as low as 7.5 O/U, but some books have either juiced the Over or already made the jump to 8.5 points. Rollins has scored double figures in six of his last eight games, with two five-point showings vs. top-tier defenses in Miami and Minnesota.
Milwaukee has a good shot of keeping this streak alive, facing a Pelicans team playing out the remaining games with a skeleton crew and no chance of a postseason spot. New Orleans is 4-14 SU over its last 18 games, allowing an average of 118.6 points.
Rollins’ player projections all call for more than 10 points tonight with my projection at 10.7 points, which should have the Over 7.5 points listed at -255.
Karl-Anthony Towns Over 2.5 assists (+130 at bet365)
We get a playoff preview with the Knicks and Pistons destined for a first-round clash. That’s just fine with New York big Karl-Anthony Towns, who’s excelled in his two matchups with Detroit this season.
Towns scored 26 and 21 points in those games but also played the role of playmaker, with 10 assists coming out of those contests.
Towns is averaging over three assists per game, but his passing prowess has taken a step back in recent showings. The versatile 7-footer has dished out three dimes only once in his last six outings, which has pumped up the payout on the Over 2.5 assists tonight.
The possibility for passing looms large vs. Detroit, with fellow forwards OG Anunoby and Josh Hart sitting out Thursday. That means more touches for KAT in the offense, who averages 4.7 potential assists on the season.
The bulk of player models are all north of three assists from Towns, ranging from 2.8 to 3.2 dimes. My projections are just over three helpers, which should have the Over 2.5 assists listed closer to -140 than the Over +130 available.
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NBA odds today
Here are the full NBA odds for all of today’s matchups.
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