The last game on the calendar before 2023 is a showdown between the Miami Heat and the Utah Jazz. Both these teams are on the heels of losses last night and will try to tap any remaining reservoir of energy to ring in the New Year with a much-needed win.
Our NBA betting picks and predictions for the Heat vs. Jazz on December 31 feature the scoring prowess of Finnish forward Lauri Markkanen, who is on the precipice of his first All-Star selection.
Heat vs Jazz best odds
Heat vs Jazz picks and predictions
The Utah Jazz have lost three straight and are just 4-6 in their last 10, which has seen them slip from home-court advantage lock for the playoffs all the way to 10th in the standings on the borders of the Play-In Tournament. But while the Jazz might not quite live up to the lofty standards they set with their inspired play to start the year, the continued growth of Lauri Markkanen shines through
Markkanen was a distressed asset hiding in plain sight. Drafted by the Chicago Bulls and subjected to the hopelessly inept coaching of Jim Boylen, Lauri then played a year as an oversized small forward for a Cleveland Cavaliers team already overstuffed with offensive talent.
It wasn’t until this season that Lauri got to prove that his play for the Finnish National Team was no fluke and that there’s been an All-Star just waiting to be unlocked by the right coach and situation in the NBA.
The beautiful part is that Markkanen is not a ball-dominant player or a ball stopper. He gets his points completely within the flow of the offense and is highly productive despite having a lower usage rate than other comparable star forwards.
He’s averaging career highs in practically every counting stat (including a near 10-point leap to 23.2 ppg) and is scoring more efficiently from every spot on the court. That alone is an incredibly rare feat. However, the fact he’s doing all that while also doing more as a play initiator and shot creator than ever before is what makes it clear this is no blip.
Even as the Jazz have struggled over their last 10 games to find consistent offense, Markkanen has just gotten better and better. He’s averaging 26.9 ppg over his last 10 games, and a staggering 31.2 ppg over his last five on over 55/45/93 splits.
Even on nights when his 3-point shot isn’t falling — as they didn’t last night against the Sacramento Kings — he’s able to adapt.
The Heat are still a quality defense, even if they’ve slipped a bit recently, and Bam Adebayo is on the shortlist of the best defenders in the NBA. But they’re short on power forward-sized defenders capable of matching up with the 7-foot Markkanen and they've looked rotten in back-to-backs this season. I’m expecting Lauri to keep his hot streak going into the New Year.
My best bet: Lauri Markkanen Over 24.5 points (-106)
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Heat vs Jazz spread analysis
The key to this line — Miami +3.5 — is that both the Jazz and Heat played road games last night. Miami played one down to the wire in the Mile High City before ultimately coming up short, while Utah similarly faded in the closing moments against the Sacramento Kings.
Projecting how these two teams will respectively respond to playing again so soon is the crux of this spread, and there’s good reason to think that the Jazz will have the edge.
For one thing, the Heat have more veteran players who struggle with this kind of quick turnaround like Jimmy Butler and Kyle Lowry. Utah has consistently played a deep rotation even when healthy, which is another reason it's likely to fare better than Miami on the heels of a back-to-back.
The Heat have also been missing so many bodies at different times this season that players like Lowry have had to put a lot more miles onto the odometer than is ideal. The Jazz have been able to share the load in a more equitable, and less draining fashion.
That’s reflected in their recent play on back-to-backs. The Heat are 1-4-1 against the spread in their last six games playing on 0 days rest, while Utah has gone 4-1 in its previous five in the same situation. I’d lean Jazz.
Heat vs Jazz Over/Under analysis
The total for Saturday’s game has been set at 224, which seems to be supported by a number of recent trends for both the Heat and the Jazz.
Utah has been the NBA’s third-best offense this season but has been also one of the worst defenses — although its shown the ability to lock in on defense following a high-scoring loss. That’s why the Under is 8-2 in its last 10 games after allowing more than 125 points prior.
Miami has slogged through a lot of low-scoring games recently, with the Under cashing in four of its last five overall as well as four of its last five road games.
The physical style of defense the Heat play is incredibly draining, and it hasn't held up as well during games when they play on the second night of a back-to,-back. Crucially, the Over is 19-8 in Miami's last 27 games playing on zero days rest, in large part due to its defensive drop off.
The team that the Heat played just last night, the Denver Nuggets, are structurally similar to the Jazz in terms of being a high-powered offense with a suspect defense as well as a strong home-court advantage. The Over cleared by 18.5 points in that matchup, and I expect Miami will continue to score with ease against Utah, and probably won’t be able to slow it down in turn.
Heat vs Jazz betting trend to know
The Heat are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games playing on zero days rest. Find more NBA betting trends for Heat vs. Jazz.
Heat vs Jazz game info
| Location: | Vivint Arena, Salt Lake City, UT |
| Date: | Saturday, December 31, 2022 |
| Tip-off: | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Sports Sun, ATTSN-RM |
