Heat vs Jazz Picks and Predictions: Miami Cools Off in Salt Lake

On Saturday, the Utah Jazz host the Miami Heat in a battle between two of the best teams in basketball. The only problem for this one is that the Heat could be without Jimmy Butler, as the All-Star sprained his ankle a couple of nights ago. 

Will Miami find a way to keep this game tight against Utah at Vivint Arena? Continue reading our Heats vs. Jazz picks and predictions for November 13 to find out. 

Heat vs Jazz odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

The Jazz were 6.5-point favorites over the Heat at open, but they’re now laying either 7 or 7.5 points nearly everywhere. That could change if Jimmy Butler ends up playing in this game, so be on the lookout for any updates there. The total, which opened at 213.0, is now either 213.5 or 214.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Heat vs Jazz predictions

• Jazz -7.0 (-110)
• Over 213.5 (-110)
• Best bet: Jazz -7.0 (-110)

Predictions made on 11/13/2021 at 10:30 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Heat vs Jazz game info

• Location: Vivint Arena, Salt Lake City, UT
• Date: Saturday, November 13, 2021
• Tip-off: 5:00 p.m. ET
• TV: NBATV, BUSSUN, SNRM

Heat vs Jazz betting preview

Injuries

Heat: Jimmy Butler F (Questionable), Markieff Morris F (Questionable), Victor Oladipo G (Out)
Jazz: Rudy Gay F (Out)
Find our latest NBA injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Jazz are 7-3 against the spread in their last 10 homes games. Find more NBA betting trends for Heat vs. Jazz.

Heat vs Jazz picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Spread analysis

When the Heat and Jazz met in Miami on November 6, it was Erik Spoelstra’s team that came away with a 118-115 win as a 2-point home favorite. The issue for the Heat is that Butler, who is either not playing tonight or playing through a pretty bad ankle sprain, scored 27 points and dished out six assists in that game. He did all of that while playing his usual brand of lockdown defense on the other end of the floor. Without the two-way stud, it’s unfair to ask the Heat to go into Utah and cover against the Jazz. 

Utah is currently third in the NBA in offensive rating and the team isn’t even shooting the ball as well as it can be at this point in the year. The Jazz are 27th in the league in three-point percentage, with the group hitting just 32.1 percent of its threes. Last year, Utah was at 38.9 percent from deep, good for fourth in the league. These shots are going to start falling soon and tonight could be the night. Not having Butler to defend out on the perimeter would make things very difficult for the Heat to get on all of the Jazz shooters. It puts a lot of pressure on guys like Tyler Herro and Duncan Robinson defensively, and both of them are prone to a couple of slip-ups. 

Also, the Jazz’s 112.5 offensive rating over the last five games isn’t something that people should get used to either. This Utah team is very disciplined on the defensive end, and the team has the personnel to get back to playing some great basketball on that end of the floor. Don’t be surprised if the Jazz have a ton of energy on the defensive end tonight, as they are not going to want to let their home fans down twice in a row. 

Prediction: Jazz -7.0 (-110) 

Over/Under analysis

These are two of the best defensive teams in basketball when they are at their best, but that hasn’t been the case recently. Over the last five games, these are two of the bottom-5 teams in the league when it comes to defensive rating, making this total actually seem a bit low in tonight’s game. 

While Utah should be able to raise the defensive intensity for this game, the Heat have gone Over the total in six of their last seven contests. The one Under came in an absurd 95-78 loss to the Boston Celtics on November 4, but this game shouldn’t look anything like that one. 

With or without Butler, the Heat have guys like Kyle Lowry, Robinson and Herro to knock down some triples, and Bam Adebayo has actually averaged 29.0 points per game over the last two. He likely won’t do that in a matchup with Rudy Gobert, but he can easily score 20 in this one. Overall, it isn’t hard to see Miami scoring 105 points or so tonight, which would mean that Utah would need to score 113 to cover. That would mean a comfortable win for Over bettors. 

Prediction: Over 213.5 (-110)

Best bet

Not only are the Heat potentially playing without Butler in this game, but they also have had a grueling schedule over the past week. This will be Miami’s fourth road game in a matter of six days, and that can take its toll on anybody. The Jazz, meanwhile, have had a full day to sit there and think about their 111-100 loss to the Indiana Pacers as 10.5-point home favorites on Thursday. They’ll be eager to get back out there and get the bad taste out of their mouths. 

Also, in Butler’s absence, the Heat have relied heavily on Adebayo’s offensive ability. The 24-year-old has made huge strides on that end of the floor throughout his career, but it’s not realistic to expect him to score 30 or so points against the best defensive center in basketball. That will put a lot of pressure on Lowry and Herro to make shots, and the two of them have to be somewhat exhausted from how things have played out over this road trip. 

Don’t be surprised if the Heat pack it in mentally after a big run or two by the Jazz. 

Pick: Jazz -7.0 (-110)

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