Miami has won three straight after a 127-109 beatdown of the Chicago Bulls last night but now heads north of the border on the second night of a road back-to-back to take on the Toronto Raptors at Scotiabank Arena.
Those Raptors are red hot. They've won five in a row and have played themselves into the East's No. 5-seed. They're also in a good position to avoid the play-in games, but how do they matchup with Miami?
Find out in our NBA picks and predictions for Heat vs. Raptors.
(Editor’s Note: On April 4th, sports betting in Ontario shifts from a grey market to a regulated market. Get all the information you need ahead of this change with our Ontario sports betting guide.)
Heat vs Raptors odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
With the Heat playing for the second time in as many nights, the Raptors opened as 4-point home favorites and are now on the board at -3.5 at more shops. The total hit the board at 212.5 and has since ticked up to 213 as of noon on Sunday.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Heat vs Raptors predictions
Predictions made on 4/3/2022 at 2:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Heat vs Raptors game info
• Location: Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON
• Date: Sunday, April 3, 2022
• Tip-off: 7:00 p.m. ET
• TV: Sportsnet, Bally Sports Sun
Heat vs Raptors betting preview
Key injuries
Heat: No injuries to report.
Raptors: Malachi Flynn G (Questionable), Yuta Watanabe G (Questionable).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Raptors are 11-2 straight up and 10-3 against the spread over its last 13 games. Find more NBA betting trends for Heat vs. Raptors.
Heat vs Raptors picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Spread analysis
With just five games left on the schedule, the Raptors — now fully healthy — have been one of the hottest teams in the East. They've climbed up the standings thanks to a stretch of 11 wins in 13 tries (10-3 ATS) and now sit fifth in the East, half a game up on Chicago and 2.5 games ahead of Cleveland in one of the dreaded play-in spots.
And it hasn't come easy. Seven of those 11 wins came away from Scotiabank Arena and against some quality foes, including Phoenix, Denver, Philadelphia, Cleveland, and Minnesota.
After a quick stop in Orlando, Toronto is back at home for a bout with the East's top-seeded Miami Heat.
The Heat holds a 1.5-game edge over the Bucks atop the Eastern Conference and — like Toronto — have finally gotten healthy. After a stretch of seven straight ATS losses (2-5 SU), Miami has won and covered three in a row, including road contests against the Celtics and Bulls.
After last night's 127-109 win in Chicago, Miami now heads north of the border for a date with the Raptors — and they may be in tough playing for the second time in as many nights.
During this 13-game stretch, the Raptors are boasting an NBA-best defensive rating of 107.6, holding teams to just 104.7 points per game in the process. That also leads the NBA.
And while the Heat's defense has started to return to form with a fully-healthy lineup, giving up just 109, 100, and 98 points in the last three games, the offense has been hit or miss.
Miami has reached the 110-point mark just three times over its last 10 games and has only done so against Chicago, Sacramento, and Oklahoma City — all bottom-half defenses on the year.
Toronto's balanced scoring attack of Siakam, VanVleet, Anunoby, Trent Jr., and Barnes should start to wear the Heat defense down, especially later in the game once that back-to-back fatigue starts to set in.
The Raptors are the more-rested team and have much more to play for as they try to avoid play-in hell. Lay the small number with the home team.
Prediction: Raptors -3.5 (-110 at SportsInteraction)
Over/Under analysis
These teams have matched up three times this season and have played to totals of 203, 216, and a regulation total of 200 (game ended 124-120 in triple overtime).
That brings us to tonight's total of 213.5, and while it falls on the lower end, the Under still feels like the right play.
It's going to be tough sledding for Miami's offense that's been super inconsistent of late. Not only will they have to deal with the travel and fatigue that comes with the second night of a back-to-back, they're matching up with a Raptors defense that's leading the NBA in defensive rating over its recent 11-2 SU stretch.
Over the last 10 games, these squads rank first and third in scoring defense. In addition, both offenses are among the slowest in pace rating (Toronto 25th, Miami 29th).
This game's pace will be dictated by the defenses — particularly Toronto's — and should stay just Under the 213.5-point total.
Prediction: Under 213.5 (-110 at 888sport)
Best bet
While the Raptors appear to be in a decent spot amidst the Eastern Conference logjam, the work isn't done. Toronto has a 2.5-game advantage over Cleveland — currently occupying the first play-in spot — and with another win tonight, Toronto will all but slam the door on a Top-6 seed.
The Heat are in a bit of a race themselves atop the East, but the stakes are much higher for Toronto. They should play as such tonight.
Pick: Raptors -3.5 (-110 at SportsInteraction)
