After winning by seven as 4.5-point road underdogs against the Utah Jazz, the Golden State Warriors look to pick up back-to-back wins when they host the Miami Heat on Monday. The Warriors are expected to get Draymond Green back in this one, meaning they’ll have most of the roster responsible for this season’s hot start — while still waiting on Klay Thompson to return.
Will Golden State blow Miami out? Keep reading our free NBA betting picks and predictions to find out.
Heat vs Warriors odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
The Warriors opened as 10.5-point favorites against the Heat, but that spread has dropped to an even 10 at some books at the time of this writing.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Heat vs Warriors predictions
Predictions made on 01/3/2022 at 10:50 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Heat vs Warriors game info
• Location: Chase Center, San Francisco, CA
• Date: Monday, January 3, 2022
• Tip-off: 10:00 p.m. ET
• TV: NBATV
Heat vs Warriors betting preview
Injuries
Heat: KZ Okpala F (Questionable), Duncan Robinson F (Questionable), Marcus Garrett G (Questionable), Udonis Haslem F (Questionable), Gabe Vincent G (Questionable), Max Strus G (Questionable), P.J. Tucker F (Questionable), Bam Adebayo C (Out), Dewayne Dedmon C (Out), Markieff Morris F (Out), Victor Oladipo G (Out).
Warriors: Damion Lee G (Probable), James Wiseman C (Out), Klay Thompson G (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Warriors are 13-3 against the spread in their last 16 games versus teams with winning percentages above 60%. Find more NBA betting trends for Heat vs. Warriors.
Heat vs Warriors picks and predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Spread analysis
The Heat are coming off of a bad road loss to the Sacramento Kings as 3.5-point favorites on Sunday night. Miami used a lot of energy in defeat, and the team now has to play the best team in basketball on the second night of a road back-to-back. On top of that, Golden State is coming off a day of rest and is getting back its emotional leader with Draymond Green likely to be activated after being in the COVID-19 health and safety protocols.
With Damion Lee also back in the lineup, the Warriors are now only without Klay Thompson and James Wiseman. That’s bad news for a Miami team that is really beaten down by injuries and illnesses.
Kyle Lowry and Jimmy Butler are capable of willing the Heat into games on most nights, but the matchups aren’t great tonight. Steph Curry is very likely to significantly outplay Lowry, and Butler will be going up against a new version of his former teammate Andrew Wiggins. Wiggins has turned into one of the better two-way forwards in the league, and he’ll be eager to go out there and try to outplay Butler.
Overall, this shouldn’t be a close game and it’s one in which the Heat will miss Bam Adebayo in a big way.
Prediction: Warriors -10 (-110)
Over/Under analysis
The Under is 6-2-1 in Golden State’s last nine home games and 5-2 in the team’s last seven games versus teams with winning percentages above 60%. This game should end up being another somewhat low-scoring affair as these teams prioritize defense. Golden State is first in the league in defensive rating and Miami is currently tied for eighth.
The Under is also 21-7-1 in games where Golden State has been favored this season, and it’s also 37-15 when the Warriors are coming off a road game over the last two seasons.
Prediction: Under 217.5 (-110)
Best bet
If the Heat had Adebayo, things might be a little more promising for them. Not many players can match the intensity and passion that Green has on a nightly basis, but Adebayo is certainly one of them. Without him, the Warriors are in a completely different league than the Heat, and that’s true on both ends of the floor.
This season, Golden State is also 14-5 against the spread as a home favorite. The team is also 11-0 straight-up and 10-1 against the spread when favored by 10 or more points over the last three seasons.
Pick: Warriors -10 (-110)
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